2020 MLB Draft Guide Player Profile: Alex Bregman

There’s no denying that Houston’s Alex Bregman is a stud on the field. He’s solid defensively and he took his offensive game to the next level in 2019. In 156 games, he posted career highs in home runs (41), runs scored (122) runs batted in (112), walk rate (17.2%), ISO (.296), batting average (.296), on-base percentage (.423) and slugging percentage (.592). As you can see, it truly was a banner year for the young third baseman. Was it a year where it all just went right for Bregman, and statistical regression is in play in 2020, or are his 2019 numbers indicative of the type of player he’ll be moving forward? Yes.

Bregman is incredibly talented and has a pure swing, but his Statcast metrics don’t jump off the charts. Compared to years prior, 2019 wasn’t actually too far different statistically. Take a look for yourself:

Courtesy of Baseball Savant

Typically, when we see sizable power spikes from a player, the first thing that comes to mind for me is Statcast metrics. Obviously, he either barreled up the ball more, had a nice jump in exit velocity, or his launch angle improved. Well, we don’t really get that with Bregman. Yes, the launch angle jumped a bit, but only about two or so degrees above his career average.

However, I think I found an explanation to the power spike. There were minor shifts in his batted ball profile, but Fangraphs classified his hard contact rate at 44.9 percent, which was almost 10 percentage points higher than the year before! Additionally, his soft contact has remained neutral, or declined every year since entering the league. Also, notice the decreasing ground balls and increases in fly ball and HR/FB rate.

Courtesy of Fangraphs

There could be a reasonable explanation. Ground balls are trending down and fly balls are increasing. Furthermore, the HR/FB rate is increasing, which simply means that the occurrence of his fly balls that leave the yard is higher than the year before. That’s a simple explanation. However, when you pair some of the above information with the information below, the home run jump is explainable.

Courtesy of Fangraphs

Courtesy of Fangraphs

Courtesy of Fangraphs

So, the increased launch angle helped on some of those screaming line drives. Some of those balls went from doubles to home runs, and he elevated his hard contact on fly balls as well. More fly balls with harder contact overall helps pad home run totals. So, nothing may have jumped out overall on Statcast, but when you remove worm killers from his numbers, you see how the jump was possible.

Lastly, the interesting thing with Bregman is whether or not he’ll run more in 2020. The numbers have declined each year. He posted 22 stolen base attempts in 2017, but those numbers dropped to 14 and 6 in 2018 and 2019 respectively. He is an OBP machine, and will likely post a .400+ mark again this year, especially with the HBP’s he might see. Will he get to double-digits this year? In a full season, I’d lean no, but in a likely shortened season, double-digits seems like a longshot.

The runs and RBI will fall in place for Bregman in 2020, regardless of number of games played, but on the simplest calculation, we can get a rough estimate. Let’s use popular projection systems to garner an estimate of Bregman’s games per home run metric.

Courtesy of Projections listed on Fangraphs

So, we come to a rough average of about 4.5 games per home run for Bregman. Now, placing that mark on a number of potential games-played this season, we get an estimation of Bregman’s projected home run totals.

Bregman is a great fantasy asset to have, but he won’t match last year’s power production, even if the 2020 season were to be a full 162 games, and the speed is diminishing. Third base is pretty deep, so if you just want a good average guy with some pop in the first round, I’d rather have Juan Soto at a positon where you need five starters.

Statistical Credits:
fangraphs.com
baseballsavant.mlb.com