UPDATE 3/24: While we don't know when the 2020 MLB season, we do know that the postponement of Opening Day has had a dramatic effect on the availability of players for the start of the season. Those we expected to miss time may not and those we expected to see, may not be around. Michael Stein has written an addendum to the Injury Report here in the Draft Guide, so scroll through the original piece and catch the silver linings he gives you at the end.
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As the author of the MLB Injury Report, it is my job to report the bad news when players get hurt or are expected to miss time due to injuries. Injuries are an expected part of the game and those fantasy baseball GMs that can withstand and survive them are the ones who achieve the most success. It is still early in draft season so a lot can happen before Opening Day. However, several players may miss time in 2020 or are coming back from injuries sustained last year. This will likely diminish their ADP and allow GMs an opportunity to wait a little longer to grab players later in drafts.
Merely a Flesh Wound
Christian Yelich (OF-MIL)
Yelich was the National League MVP in 2018 and could have won for a second consecutive season in 2019 had it not been for a season-ending knee injury. He sustained a fractured right kneecap and was shut down right in the middle of the Brewers’ magical run to the playoffs last September. Yelich is already running and is expected to be 100% for spring training. There is no concern about his status as one of the top picks of the draft in any league format. Yelich is an elite player who contributes significantly in all five Roto categories, and GMs should expect MVP-type numbers from him again.
Freddie Freeman (1B-ATL)
Braves first baseman Freddie Freeman had arthroscopic elbow surgery back in October but is expected to be ready to go for spring training. Various elbow issues appeared to affect Freeman in the postseason last year as he struggled mightily in the 2019 NLDS. Freeman had fragmented loose bodies removed as well as getting bone spur formations cleaned up. He should be 100% when he reports for spring training and remains right at the top of the list in terms of fantasy first basemen. Freeman is coming off a stellar season in which he hit .295 with a career-high 38 home runs and 121 RBI. He is one of the most consistent and dependable players in the league, and he should be targeted as the top first baseman in any draft format.
Ketel Marte (OF-ARZ)
The Diamondbacks shut Marte down in mid-September 2019 after he was diagnosed with a stress reaction in his lower back. The good news was that he did not require surgery and he is fully expected to be ready for spring training. Marte was one of the biggest surprises of the 2019 season as he emerged as a fantasy stud batting .329 with 32 home runs, 92 RBI, 97 runs scored and ten stolen bases. He also qualifies as both a second baseman and outfielder in many leagues, so his multi-positional eligibility makes him an even more valuable asset. It is reasonable to expect some regression, but fantasy GMs will likely draft him early with elite expectations.
José Ramírez (3B-CLE)
It was a bipolar season for Ramirez in 2019 as the Indians third baseman was awful during the first half. He was a complete bust from a fantasy perspective until he turned things around in the second half. Part of the reason for his slow start could have been attributed to the lower leg injury he suffered at the end of spring training. Ramirez was able to take the field on Opening Day, but it is possible his leg was not right which could have been the cause for his struggles. Then in August, he fractured the hamate bone in his right hand and missed a month of action. He was able to return in September but was shut down over the final weekend of the season due to lingering soreness. Cleveland expects Ramirez to be fully healthy when he reports for spring training, and fantasy GMs should expect a bounce-back season from him as well. He finished 2019 batting .255 with 23 home runs, 83 RBI and 24 stolen bases. These numbers seem tolerable given where he was in the first half, but fantasy GMs have grown accustomed to expecting more from Ramirez.
Adalberto Mondesi (SS-KC)
Royals shortstop Adalberto Mondesi suffered a torn left labrum in September 2019 and subsequently underwent surgery in October. The time frame for his recovery was five to six months, so that was pushing right up to the start of the season. Kansas City’s new manager, Mike Matheny, has already indicated that he believes Mondesi will be on the field for Opening Day. While that is positive to hear, there is still some concern about potential setbacks as this was a major surgery. Mondesi is one of the best base stealers in the league, so he provides significant fantasy value with his speed at a premium middle infield position.
Cause for Concern
Chris Sale (SP-BOS)
Fantasy GMs were greatly disappointed by the performance of Chris Sale who was both ineffective and injured in 2019. He finished the season with a 6-11 record along with a 4.40 ERA in only 25 starts. While he did have a 1.09 WHIP and 218 strikeouts in 147.1 innings, he was not the reliable and dependable ace pitcher than fantasy GMs were expecting. Sale dealt with an elbow injury all season and it looked as though he may need Tommy John surgery. However, in August he ended up just getting a platelet-rich plasma injection in his elbow instead and then was cleared to start throwing by Thanksgiving. He has indicated to reporters that he will be ready to go for spring training, so all signs are pointing towards a full recovery. However, GMs should be cautious about Sale given his lengthy injury history over the course of his career coupled with the extremely unique mechanics he has always utilized.
Yoenis Céspedes (OF-NYM)
It has been an eventful offseason for Yoenis Céspedes who is trying to return from double heel surgery that has kept him out of action since 2018. In addition, he saw his contract amended when it came to light that he suffered a serious setback last year during an altercation with a wild boar. The good news is that he has been seen running and hitting down in Florida as he prepares for spring training. Cespedes represents a true boom or bust opportunity for fantasy GMs because there is as much of a chance he never sees the field at all as there is that he plays 130 games and hits 40 home runs. Cespedes should be highly motivated this season playing for incentives in his current deal as well as looking to cash in as a pending free agent. This all depends on how much risk you are willing to take.
Justin Upton (OF-LAA)
Upton has been one of the most durable players in the baseball since his early days in Arizona. In fact, he had never missed more than 30 games in a season since becoming an everyday player. That all changed in 2019 when he missed the first few months of the season with a toe injury and then missed the tail end of the season with tendinitis in his knee. It was simply a lost season for Upton who hit only .215 with 12 home runs and 40 RBI in just 63 games. Upton treated his knee injury with platelet-rich plasma treatment and is expected to be healthy for spring training. Fantasy GMs may be a little concerned that Upton is now 32-years old and may be wearing down after playing almost every game for over a decade. Upton could be had at a discount this year due to his lost 2019 season, and this could be a great value pick if he stays healthy in a lineup that just added Anthony Rendon .
Miguel Andújar (3B-NYY)
Andujar was limited to only 12 games last year due to suffering a torn labrum, but the Yankees did not miss him at all. They turned in a spectacular season thanks in large part to replacements such as Gio Urshela who appears to have overtaken Andujar at third base heading into 2020. The Yankees expect Andujar to be ready once camp opens, but the question is where he fits into the lineup. It is quite possible that he finds himself playing another position or platooning somewhere because Urshela is a superior defensive third baseman and he demonstrated he can provide similar offense to Andujar. Fantasy GMs know Andujar can hit based on his breakout season in 2018, but his value will depend on whether he can stay healthy and get enough regular at bats.
Will Miss Time in 2020
Aaron Hicks (OF-NYY)
Yankees center fielder Aaron Hicks will miss at least the entire first half of the season after undergoing Tommy John surgery last October. He played through the elbow injury during the ALCS and then had the operation a few days after the team was eliminated from the playoffs. Hicks signed a long-term contract with the Yankees so the centerfield job will be his once he is able to return. He had a great 2018 that showed what he is capable of doing when he is given a chance to play every day. However, it is reasonable to expect he will struggle a bit when he returns much like Didi Gregorius did when he returned from Tommy John surgery in the middle of 2019. He can be targeted late in drafts with the expectation that he will be stashed in an IL slot until the middle of the season.
Jordan Hicks (RP-STL)
Cardinals closer Jordan Hicks underwent Tommy John surgery in June 2019 and is not expected to return until sometime in the second half, at the earliest. Hicks is a flamethrower and was putting up dominant numbers including 14 saves, 3.14 ERA, 0.94 WHIP and 31 strikeouts in 28.2 innings before being shut down. With Carlos Martínez expected to return to the starting rotation, the Cardinals could turn to Giovanny Gallegos or Alex Reyes to fill the closer’s role until Hicks is able to return. The issue is Hicks may not claim the role back if someone else is having success. GMs should take their chances on other players before dedicating a roster spot for Hicks over the first several months of the season.
Michael Fulmer (SP-DET)
Tigers starting pitcher Michael Fulmer underwent Tommy John surgery in March 2019 and missed the entire season. He is not expected back until the second half of 2020 barring any setbacks in his recovery. The former AL Rookie of the Year was a big trade chip for the Tigers before the injury, so he will need to prove he is healthy before he regains that value again. Fulmer last pitched in 2018 when he went 3-12 with a 4.69 ERA, so he is likely off most fantasy GMs’ radar heading into 2020. He is a pitcher to target at the end of drafts with the understanding that he will need to be stashed for at least half the season.
Carlos Rodón (SP-CHW)
It feels as though Rodon has been a prospect for a decade, but the reality is that he is entering his sixth season in the big leagues. Unfortunately, he is not expected back on the field until the second half of the season as he recovers from Tommy John surgery that he underwent in May 2019. Rodon did go 3-2 with 46 strikeouts in 34.2 innings, but he also had an abysmal 5.19 ERA and 1.44 WHIP before getting shut down. Rodon is nothing more than a very late round target for a GM looking to stash a pitcher with some upside.
Dustin Pedroia (2B-BOS)
Pedroia sustained a significant setback in his recovery from a knee procedure he underwent last year and now it appears doubtful he will be ready for spring training. This is bad news for the 36-year old veteran leader of the Red Sox who has been hampered by injuries over the past few years. It is quite possible that this is the end of the road for Pedroia who has not played a full season since 2016. He is not a viable fantasy option, even if he does somehow recover and make it back onto the field during the 2020 season.
Mitch Haniger (OF-SEA)
Haniger only played in 63 games last year due to various injuries including a ruptured testicle that he sustained when he fouled a ball off of himself. He also dealt with some back problems, but he was in the process of rehabbing from these ailments when he suffered a setback in late January. Haniger will have to undergo core surgery and is expected to be out six to eight weeks. This means he will miss almost all of spring training and will likely start the season on the injured list. Even when he was healthy, he failed to replicate the stellar production he provided in 2018. Now there will be even more questions about his ability to stay healthy heading into 2020 so GMs should be able to get him at an even bigger discount.
Welcome Back
Gregory Polanco (OF-PIT)
Polanco had surgery on his left shoulder before the 2019 season and was never right after that. He dealt with several setbacks and was limited to just 42 games before being shut down again in September in order to get PRP injections. The Pirates are hopeful that Polanco will be able to participate in spring training without any restrictions, but that remains to be seen at this point. Polanco has the potential to be a fantasy stud due to his combination of power and speed, but injuries have hampered him over the past few seasons. He certainly is capable of hitting 20 homeruns and stealing 20 bases, but a lot will have to go right for Polanco in terms of his health and being able to stay on the field. Draft him for the upside but have plenty of alternatives in the outfield before doing so.
Lance McCullers (SP-HOU)
It has been an offseason to forget for the Astros after the sign-stealing scandal broke and punishments were inflicted. However, one positive development for the team is the pending return of Lance McCullers who missed all of 2019 after undergoing Tommy John surgery in November 2018. Still only 26-years old, McCullers is a solid piece in Houston’s rotation and will help offset the loss of Gerrit Cole . He last pitched in 2018 when he went 10-6 with a 3.86 ERA and 142 strikeouts in 128.1 innings. McCullers will not have any restrictions in spring training, so GMs should keep an eye on his comeback as he could provide significant fantasy value depending on where he is drafted.
Nick Senzel (OF-CIN)
Senzel had a relatively pedestrian rookie season in 2019 as he batted .256 with 12 home runs, 42 RBI, 55 runs scored and 14 stolen bases in 104 games. He also dealt with a couple injuries including a torn labrum in his right shoulder for which he underwent surgery in September 2019. This was a major surgery so there were immediate questions about whether Senzel would be ready for spring training. It has been reported that Senzel is expected to be ready to roll when the Reds report for spring training. The next question to address is where Senzel will play because the Reds outfield is crowded after signing Shogo Akiyama to a three-year contract. Senzel was an infielder in the minor leagues, but he played primarily in the outfield last year. There is no questions some of his luster has worn off, but there is still plenty of upside for Senzel assuming he is healthy.
Michael Kopech (SP-CHW)
Former top prospect Michael Kopech made his Major League debut in August 2018 and had four starts before being diagnosed with a torn UCL in his elbow. He underwent Tommy John surgery and spent all of 2019 rehabbing and recovering. Now he is primed to come back as part of a renovated White Sox roster that looks on paper to be a contender for the AL Central title. Chicago will likely try to ease Kopech back into the mix, and it would not be surprising if he begins the season either in the minor leagues or in the bullpen. Kopech has the potential to become a dominant ace pitcher, so hold onto him in keeper leagues.
See You in 2021
Jameson Taillon (SP-PIT)
Big things were expected of Taillon after the 2018 season as he compiled a 14-10 record with a 3.20 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and 179 strikeouts in 191 innings. However, his 2019 season was derailed by injuries as he only made seven starts before succumbing to Tommy John surgery last August. The good news is that he has already started throwing from 60 feet, but it is unlikely he will see any big-league action this year. The Pirates are looking to rebuild so there is no reason to rush Taillon back this year. He only has value in dynasty leagues where GMs can hope he returns to form in 2021.
David Robertson (RP-PHI)
The Phillies made a huge splash in free agency before the 2019 season including the acquisition of David Robertson to become the team’s closer. Things did not work out too well as Robertson pitched in only seven games amassing an 0-1 record with a 5.40 ERA and 2.10 WHIP. He went on the injured list in April with a flexor injury in his right elbow and never threw another pitch. That is because he ended up needed Tommy John surgery in August and missed the rest of 2019. The timing of his surgery also means that he will likely miss all of 2020 as well. Robertson can safely remain on the waiver wire and should not be drafted in any league format.
UPDATE (3/24):
The world has been consumed by the Coronavirus pandemic, and life as we know it has essentially come to a screeching halt. Some of the collateral damage of this disaster has been the shutdown of all sports, including the suspension of spring training and indefinite delay to the beginning of the MLB season. The most optimistic timeframe to start the season is around Memorial Day Weekend which means that the season would be truncated by approximately 50 games. However, it is quite possible the season starts even later, or possibly not at all.
Many leagues conducted their drafts before spring training was suspended, but there are many leagues that just recently drafted or postponed it until a later date when more information is available. The timing of a league’s draft will have significant ramifications, assuming we have a baseball season in some capacity. One major aspect that will be affected by the delayed start of the season is the status of injured players. We already knew of several players that were likely going to begin the season on the injured list. Now that the season is delayed, these players should all be healthy or close to ready to play by the new Opening Day. This drastically effects players’ draft value and GMs’ strategies.
Here is a rundown of some injured players that can be targeted earlier in drafts now that they will have time to rest and recover before Opening Day:
Eugenio Suárez (3B-CIN)
Suarez was questionable at best whether he would have been ready on Opening Day after undergoing surgery in January to have some cartilage removed from his right shoulder. He was scheduled to serve as a designated hitter a couple weeks ago right before spring training was suspended, so there was a chance he could have been ready by Opening Day. Now he will have plenty of time to work on his fielding and throwing while also building up strength and endurance in his shoulder. This should elevate Suarez’s draft status back to where it belongs as one of the league’s most prolific power hitters.
Justin Verlander (SP-HOU)
We knew that Verlander might miss Opening Day due to a lat strain and then some discomfort in his right groin. He suffered a setback as he was attempting to rehab the groin injury in early March before spring training was suspended. Since then, he opted to undergo surgery on his groin and is expected to be out for six weeks. The timing of the surgery is ideal in terms of his availability for Opening Day, whenever that takes place. Verlander’s status as one of the top fantasy pitchers should not be altered and he should be drafted accordingly since he should be ready around the time the season could potentially begin.
Aaron Judge (OF-NYY)
Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge has been out with a stress fracture in his rib as well as a collapsed lung. This explained why he was in so much discomfort and never showed any progress at the beginning of spring training. He recently underwent a CT scan that revealed his lung has healed and there was some improvement on his rib. At this moment, the Yankees do not believe Judge will need surgery as the extended time off should give him plenty of time to rest, recover, and rehab. Fantasy GMs have been very concerned about Judge given that he does have a history of injuries. He may be too risky to use an early round pick on him, but GMs should not let him fall too far as he can provide tremendous value if he is able to play once the season does actually begin.
Giancarlo Stanton (OF-NYY)
There has been very little good news to report about Giancarlo Stanton over the past year, but we may finally have a reason to feel optimistic. The Yankees indicated that Stanton would likely have been ready to play if there were spring training games going on this past week. He has been getting healthier over the past month as he looks to come back from the Grade 1 strain of his right calf. Stanton had been running and taking batting practice, so all signs point to him being ready to play whenever the season starts. He has slipped significantly in drafts due to the myriad of injuries that limited him to a handful of games in 2019. GMs can get the Yankees’ slugger at a good discount in the middle rounds of a draft.
Michael Conforto (OF-NYM)
Mets outfielder Michael Conforto sustained a Grade 1 strained oblique a few weeks ago and was questionable for Opening Day before spring training was suspended. Now that the season is indefinitely delayed, he should have ample time to rest and recover from the injury that typically requires an extended absence. Conforto had a huge year in 2019 and is primed to take the next step as he looks to build on his 30-home run and 90+ RBI season.
Mike Clevinger (SP-CLE)
Clevinger had surgery in the middle of February to address the partial tear of his left medial meniscus and he was expected to miss six to eight weeks. He was likely headed for the injured list to begin the season, as he just started throwing bullpens in early March. Now with Opening Day delayed, Clevinger will likely be ready to go once the season starts, barring any setbacks. He has been a highly touted fantasy option coming off a great 2019 season when he went 13-4 with a 2.71 ERA, 1.06 WHIP and 169 strikeouts in 126 innings over 21 starts. He should be one of the top starting pitchers taken in drafts now that he will be ready to go for the pending Opening Day.
Alex Verdugo (OF-BOS)
The Red Sox made the difficult decision by trading Mookie Betts to the Dodgers as he approached free agency at the end of the season. There has been a lot of criticism over the return Boston received which includes outfield prospect Alex Verdugo . He had a stress fracture in his back and was delayed in getting work done during spring training. The Red Sox were aware of his condition and clearly felt confident that it was not a significant issue as they were anticipating he might miss part or most of April. Now that the season has been delayed, it is highly likely that Verdugo will be ready for the new Opening Day.
Several other players are currently dealing with injuries and now may be ready to come back whenever Opening Day is scheduled. Some examples include Paul Goldschmidt , Cole Hamels , Rich Hill , Trey Mancini , Carlos Carrasco , James Paxton , Andrew McCutchen , A.J. Puk , Tommy Pham and Matt Magill . This list is not exhaustive, but rather are examples of players that may have been taken later in drafts because they were likely going to start the season on the injured list. Now that the season has been delayed, it is reasonable to increase the value of these players since they will not be missing as much time as initially anticipated.