Fantasy baseball owners are always thirsty for sleepers on draft day, because it’s the best way to win drafts. Players are like the stock market and we all want to buy low or draft later than where the player really belongs on draft lists. Having players outperform preseason projections and rankings is always the goal for everyone. Here is my list of 15 sleepers that I’ll be watching closely on draft day. Will I hit on all 15 of them? Of course not. However, if I can steal 4 or 5 sleepers later in drafts, my chances of winning improve dramatically and so will yours.
1. Nomar Mazara , OF Texas Rangers
Mazara is primed for a breakout season with the potential of reaching the levels that Christian Yelich did last year with the Brewers when he won the NL MVP Award. Mazara has a sweet short swing with loud sweet-spot contact and with a small adjustment to his launch angle can become a 30-home run type player. Mazara, 23, is still a few years away from his prime years but already has shown consistency with 20 home runs in each of his first three years in the majors with a career .320 on-base percentage. Mazara is primed for a big jump in numbers and I expect to be a real sleeper in fantasy drafts.
2. Nicholas Castellanos , RF Detroit Tigers
It’s only a matter of time before Castellanos is dealt to a contending team like the Atlanta Braves and when that happens you can expect his runs and RBI totals to both reach 100. Castellanos, 26, is just entering his prime years and we should expect him to reach 30 homers this year to go along with a .300 batting average and potential 140 OPS+. Castellanos is a below-average third baseman and right fielder. His best position might end up being first base. However, in fantasy, we don’t care about defense, so grab him in the right spot and watch his stock soar.
3. Mallex Smith , OF Seattle Mariners
Smith started to put it altogether last year with the Marlins when he ended up with a .367 on-base percentage with 40 stolen bases and an OPS+ of 115. He was traded to the Seattle Mariners in the off-season and was quickly anointed as the long-term future center fielder of the M’s. Smith is expected to leadoff with Seattle with Dee Gordon hitting behind him, which should help him get more fastballs. In addition, unless they trade Mitch Haniger , with Edwin Encarnación and Jay Bruce in the lineup there’s potential for Smith to score 90-100 runs. With stolen bases being so important in fantasy, you’ll need to move him up your draft board.
4. Yasiel Puig , OF Cincinnati Reds
Get ready for Puig to take his game to a whole other level now getting to play half of his games at hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park. Puig hit 23 home runs last year, stole 15 bases and finished with a war of 2.7 and OPS+ of 120. He will be playing on his free agent year and will need a big season to get paid. I think he’ll come through with his first 30-home run season to go along with another 15 steals and an OBP close to .350.
5. Eddie Rosario , OF Minnesota Twins
Rosario has been a steady performer the last two years averaging over 25 homers and a batting average of .289 over that span. He has been extremely consistent and although he might not have much of a high ceiling his consistency makes him a solid sleeper in drafts because at least you know exactly what you’re getting from him.
6. Rafael Devers , 3B Boston Red Sox
Most people forget that Devers is just 22-years old and was rushed through the Red Sox farm system; not even getting 350 at-bats in Class A. However, despite the rushed timetable he still managed to belt 21 home runs and drive in in 166 runs in 121 games at the major league level for Boston last season. Devers can hit left-handed pitching and has proven he can handle high-90’s fastballs on both sides of the plate. He’ll continue to improve against breaking balls and change-up’s and I expect him to get to 25 home runs this year with a chance for 75 runs and 75 runs batted in with the deep and powerful Red Sox lineup.
7. Yoan Moncada , 2B Chicago White Sox
Moncada was a fantasy, and reality disappointment last year despite hitting 17 home runs and stealing 12 bases. His .315 OBP and 97 OPS+ certainly tells the story as he continues to struggle with breakings balls. However, he was a 2.0 war player last year and his tools are off the charts and with over 900 plate appearances at the major league level I would expect him to be able to make more adjustments in 2019. It’s realistic to predict 22 home runs and 15-18 stolen bases with an improved OBP.
8. Adalberto Mondesí , SS Kansas City Royals
Mondesi surprised the baseball world by starting to break out in the 75 games he played belting 14 home runs and stealing 32 bases while batting .276. He’ll have more value in batting average leagues rather than on-base percentage leagues because he has a lot of work to do in learning how to draw walks. However, his blazing speed and surprising pop has him quietly running up fantasy draft boards.
9. Harrison Bader , OF St. Louis Cardinals
Bader was one of my favorite rookies last year because of how hard he played the game and the terrific jumps and plays he made in center field. He also demonstrated solid power and speed, which should translate in fantasy. Last year he hit 12 home runs and stole 15 bases in 379 at-bats giving him a war of 3.8 and an OPS+ of 106. I project Bader to join the 20/20 club and I think he could do it while batting .280 with a .340 on-base percentage.
10. Jurickson Profar , 2B Oakland Athletics
Profar got more than 330 plate appearances for the first time in his career last season and he took advantage of it with his best year as a major leaguer getting on-base at a .335 clip with 35 doubles, 20 home runs, and 10 steals while scoring 82 runs and driving in 77. Now he gets to settle down at one position for the Oakland A’s as he’s expected to be their every day second baseman. He was successful in all ten of his stolen base attempts last year and I expect the A’s to run him much more than the Rangers did with 15-to-20 steals being realistic. He’s a real sleeper at second base this year.
11. David Dahl , OF Colorado Rockies
After the free agent signing of first baseman Daniel Murphy , Dahl was immediately anointed as one of the three Rockies outfielders along with Charlie Blackmon and Ian Desmond . I think he will go right by Desmond and become their second-best fantasy outfielder in 2019. He’s always had the potential for 20 homers and 20 steals and if he can stay healthy I think he’ll final live up to those expectations.
12. Austin Meadows , OF Tampa Bay Rays
I love this kid’s swing, but I’ve also never understood why the scouting eye has never been matched by actual tangible results. He looks like a player that should hit 20 home runs, but the most he’s ever hit was a dozen. He looks like he should steal 20 bases, but he’s only done that once. However, remember he’s only 23 years old so it might take a couple more years to reach his potential. It looks like the Rays are going to give him a chance to play every day so I think he could be a sleeper with one of your last picks.
13. Cedric Mullins, OF Baltimore Orioles
The Orioles most assuredly will lose 100 games again this year, but they’ll have some players that will certainly contribute in fantasy and I think Mullins will be one of them. He has the potential for 15 home runs and 30 steals to go along with a .280 batting average and there shouldn’t be much pressure with expectations so low on the O’s this season.
14. Drew Steckenrider , RHR Miami Marlins
We all need saves and it looks like Drew Steckenrider will be the one getting them for the Marlins. Sure the Marlins will lose between 90-100 games again this year, but someone is going to get those saves and to be able to draft a closer late in drafts would be a worthwhile gamble. Last year Steckenrider punched out 74 hitters in 64.2 innings while saving five games. This year I could easily project 20+ saves. He’s worth a dart throw as Howard Bender would say.
15. Tyler O'Neill , OF St. Louis Cardinals
O’Neill is going to have to compete with Dexter Fowler for the right field job with the Cardinals and with three years remaining on his $82.5 million dollar contract it’s tough to imagine St. Louis just handing the job over to O’Neill. However, O’Neill slashed .311/.385/.693 with 26 home runs and 63 runs batted in only 238 at-bats at Triple-A last year. After he was promoted to the majors he clunked another nine home runs and 23 runs batted in. His power is real and it looks like at age 23 he’s starting to figure out. It’s a gamble to draft him even late, but that might be worth it considering his ridiculous power potential.
16. Roman Quinn , OF Philadelphia Phillies
With the theme being trying to find late speed targets, Quinn could represent stolen base upside depending on how the Phillies round out the roster. He’s swiped 183 bases in 929 career minor league games with a 35 percent on-base rate.
17. Trevor May , RP Minnesota Twins
Transitioned well to the bullpen with a 1.85 ERA, 2.54 FIP, 0.86 WHIP and 32.6 strikeouts minus walks percentage. May’s curve yielded a .063 batting average against while his change limited hitters to a .125 average last season. Should close for Minnesota.
18. Ray Black , RP San Francisco Giants
San Francisco will be in the midst of a re-tooling and could trade Will Smith . Black features two plus pitches, his slider (47.22 whiff per swing percentage) and curve (42.86 whiff per swing) which points to his upside in strikeouts in the season ahead.
19. Jackie Bradley Jr. , OF Boston Red Sox
Another sneaky statistical line with 17 home runs and 13 stolen bases. In the second half, he surged to a .269/.340/.487 slash with a .218 isolated power, 44.4 hard hit rate and 13.2 home run per fly ball percentage.
20. Franmil Reyes , OF San Diego Padres
Huge power prospect struggled in his first go around in the majors, returned from the minors on August 14th to rack up 10 home runs in 153 at-bats with a .314 average. Love the fly ball and line drive exit velocity of 96.4 MPH.