Everyone has power nowadays; I mean heck even Tommy La Stella is bombing balls over the fence. What owners are in constant need of is speed. There has been a precipitous drop in speed over the last several seasons and steals are harder and harder to come by unless you have one of the handful of guys that get 35 or more each year that can win you a category. So why not try and get the speed on your team sooner rather than later and go harvesting the farm systems to get it instead of paying a premium on draft day to acquire some? That’s what we’re highlighting in this week’s prospect report.
Jorge Mateo , SS OAK – Mateo’s name isn’t a new one, at least in a speed discussion since it was just a few years ago he stole 82 bags in the lower minors in a season. The problem with Mateo has been his bat and whether it could show up consistently enough in the upper levels or not. Well this year it most certainly has as he’s slashing .300/.335/.518 in 85 games at Triple-A Las Vegas while hitting 13 homers, 68 runs, 62 RBI, and 18 steals. The speed isn’t in question with him as it’s a solid 80-grade on the 20-80 scale and clearly his 82-steal season shows why, though he does have a 52-steal season to his credit as well. He just needs a place to play in Oakland’s infield and he should see the majors for the first time in his career where he can put that speed on display for real.
ETA: 2019
Khalil Lee, OF KC – If there’s one thing we know that the Royals love, it’s speed. They have tons of it on their roster, actively pursued it in the offseason, and built their first World Series run around the trait. Now they are starting to do the same thing with Lee in their system after picking him in the third-round of the 2016 draft out of the Virginia High School ranks. There have been flashes of his true talents on display in his 3.5-year pro career but not everything seems to appear at the same time for him just yet. Overall, he has five above-average tools and the closest he’s come to showing all five at once was in 2017 at A-ball with he hit 17 homers, 71 runs, 61 RBI, and 20 steals in 121 games but hit just .237/.344/.430. In 2019, in his second taste of Double-A Northwest Arkansas, he’s stolen 39 bags in 86 games while slashing .265/.378/.382 with six home runs, 57 runs, and 41 RBI. The .363 BABIP and .354 wOBA suggest he’s having a better year at the plate than the average shows but his 25.8-percent K-rate has to improve or his speed becomes less of a factor. He is working on becoming more aggressive earlier in counts and getting a better two-strike approach, once those kick in, he should rocket through the rest of the system.
ETA: 2020
Lucius Fox, SS TB – Fox was a part of the Matt Moore to the Giants deal in 2016 and has been working his way through the Rays system ever since, once he got over a foot injury that same year. In 2019, at Double-A for the first full season, he’s swiped 31 bags in 83 games for the Montgomery Biscuits but has only managed a .225/.341/.366 slash line with three dingers, 46 runs, and 26 RBI, though he does have eight triples. In a similar amount of games at High-A last year, 89 to be exact, he slashed .282/.371/.353 with 23 steals, two homers, 54 runs, and 30 RBI. Those stat lines also belie the fact that he is a far better hitter right-handed than from the left-side with a .341 average righty in 2018 compared to .238 left-handed. What power he does have comes from the left-side but at a 30-grade, don’t bank on it showing up. Fox’s calling card is his speed and if he figures out how to hit in the upper levels, the Rays will have another weapon on their hand as he also flashes plus defense at short.
ETA: 2020
Jared Oliva, OF PIT – Oliva has had quite a journey to get to where he is now with the Altoona Curve, the Pirates Double-A affiliate. He wasn’t drafted out of High School, nor when he was first draft eligible in college either. He was taken in the seventh-round of the 2017 draft and sent straight to the pitcher-friendly A-Advanced Florida State League, quite a proving ground for a seventh-round selection. Fast forward to this year and at the end of May he was hitting .201/.296/.299 and had missed 11 games in April with a concussion. Since then though, he’s gotten back on track and gotten the slash line up to .274/.364/.416 by hitting .338 since June 1 with 74 total bases and a .944 OPS in that 39-game stretch. I know we’re talking steals here, he’s got 26 on the year to go with six homers, 46 runs, and 30 RBI. In 2018 at High-A he hit nine homers and stole 33 in 108 games. Oliva plays an excellent centerfield and does pretty much everything else well on a diamond, though his standout trait is speed. With the Pirates rumored to be considering moving Starling Marte and the rest of the outfield in flux, Oliva is a name you might want to pay attention to going forward.
ETA: 2020
Jeter Downs, SS/2B LAD – Yes, his first name is for exactly who you think it’s for. He’s lived up to that heavy name to this point in the minors as he’s putting up back-to-back very good years even after changing organizations in between as he was involved in the Yasiel Puig /Alex Wood trade. This is his first taste of High-A but in 78 games he’s slashing .257/.333/.476 with 14 home runs, 56 runs, 53 RBI, and 20 steals. In 2018 at A-ball for Cincinnati, he slashed .257/.351/.402 in 120 games with 13 home runs, 63 runs, 47 RBI, and 37 steals. Downs has five above-average tools in his arsenal and shouldn’t have any trouble being a 15-18 home run guy with 25-plus steals in the majors despite his 5’11” and 180-pound frame. The errors are an issue right now, though they aren’t as prevalent as Gavin Lux ’s issues, but if he sorts those out and shows a bit more advancement in the average department, there’s nothing holding Downs back from moving quickly through the Dodgers’ system.
ETA: 2021
Leody Taveras, OF TEX – I have written up Taveras before as a speed candidate from a system that needs an influx of speed on their team. Since then he has continued to chug along and progress through the system as he’s now in Double-A Frisco for the first time. In 2019, over 87 games, he’s slashing .279/.350/.353 with two home runs, 55 runs, 35 RBI, and 28 steals. In 2016-2018 he posted 18 steals in 73 games, then 20 in 134 games, then 19 in 132 last year so he’s already set a career-high in steals 60-percent of the way through 2019. Taveras has also gotten more efficient at stealing with those 28 thefts coming in 34 attempts compared to 19 in 30, 20 in 26, and 18 in 26 over the last four years. A still-20-year-old player who can hit for average and is now learning to leverage is plus-speed is a scary thought and a sign that you should be looking to get him on a roster if you don’t mind holding a guy for two years. The best comp for him right now is Ender Inciarte but he has more offensive upside than Inciarte and more speed.
ETA: 2021
Cole Brannen, OF BOS – Brannen is a guy that has one skill, speed, and he uses it despite the others not showing up. Boston drafted Brannen in the second-round of the 2017 draft out of high school because of his elite speed grades, with the hope the rest of the game could show up. That hasn’t quite happened to this point but the speed is there. In 78 games at A-ball this year he’s slashing .207/.287/.248 with 41 runs, 23 RBI, and 23 steals. He stole 21 bags in 66 games split between Low-A and A-ball while hitting .169/.262/.205. Right now he’s a defense and speed guy with the promise of turning into an effective doubles hitter as he matures past his 21st birthday, which happens in early August. If you’re in the mood for a project, Brannen is your guy.
ETA: 2022
Reidy Mercado, OF MIL – Mercado is the type of guy that you have to be willing to hold for several years as he is still just 18 years old and in rookie ball at the moment. That’s right were tapping rookie ball ranks. Mercado was originally part of the Indians system but was moved to the Brewers in a minor deal last year. This season in 36 games at rookie ball, the outfielder has 28 steals with two homers, 24 runs, 14 RBI, and a .326/.404/.430 slash line. Rookie ball stats aren’t much to go off of but it’s a start to show that he does have speed and a decent hit tool with plate discipline (10-percent BB rate, 13.5-percent K-rate). If you are looking for another Brewer who has nice speed and is closer to making an impact, Brice Turang is a guy you should target. In 89 games at A-ball and High-A, the shortstop is slashing .267/.372/.350 with 22 steals, two home runs, 63 runs, and 31 RBI to go with 17 XBH. He was taken out of the prep ranks in 2018 with the 21st overall pick and has been a fast riser since then. Still just 19 years old, Turang does have a few more levels ahead of him, but the tools are there for him to hit .280 with some pop and 25+ steals at the highest level.
ETA: 2023 (Mercado)
ETA: 2021 (Turang)