There has been so much to cover in the last month between a bevy of prospects coming up and the MLB draft prep and coverage, it’s easy to forget about some guys that have been making news down on the farm of late. That’s what we’ll cover this week as we dive in for another prospect report.
Double-A
Eastern League
Hitters
Bobby Dalbec, 3B BOS – Dalbec is one of the best prospects in the Red Sox system since Michael Chavis has come up to the majors. The 23-year-old third baseman is off to a solid start for the Double-A Portland Sea Dogs, slashing .251/.379/.518 with 14 home runs, 34 RBI, 31 runs, and two steals in in 57 games this year while also bringing a .396 wOBA and .300 BABIP to the table. He has always been a power over contact type guy since being drafted in 2016 as his best full-season slash line has been a .257/.361/.559 with 32 homers, 109 RBI, 73 runs, and three steals in 129 games split between High-A and Double-A in 2018. Those kind of counting stats are hard to ignore; however, the slash line could improve as he had 32.5-percent K-rate. That strikeout rate was similar to that of 2017 when he struck out 37-percent of the time in 85 total games. Defensively he’s been an adventure at the hot corner in his pro career with 46 errors committed in 246 games played there which is way they have started to try him out at first base instead and in 2019, he’s played 10 games there with one error compared to eight errors in 44 games at third. First base will likely be his defensive home going forward as the Red Sox still need help there on the big club.
Colton Welker, 3B COL – Welker was drafted in the fourth round of the 2016 draft by Colorado, who then went over slot to sign him for nearly $900,000. He has since rewarded their belief and over slot money by doing nothing but hit in his pro career. Welker has gone one level a year and is now at Double-A Hartford slashing .294/.349/.486 with seven home runs, 35 RBI, 25 runs, and a steal in 59 games while playing a very solid defensive third base for the Yard Goats. He’s also got a .377 wOBA and .326 wOBA this year with a 144 wRC+ and .196 ISO as well. Last year at High-A, the third baseman slashed .333/.383/.489 with 13 home runs, 82 RBI, 74 runs, and five steals in 114 games with a .382 wOBA. With a 60-grade Hit tool and a 55-grade Power tool he’s got a great profile to stick at the hot corner, though the 35-grade Speed leaves something to be desired. Ultimately, the fact that Nolan Arenado is at third base for the next eight seasons means that the new move to first base will likely be a permanent one if he wants to get full playing time in the majors as the Rockies desperately need an answer at first base.
Pitchers
Casey Mize , RHP DET – Mize was the first pick in the 2018 draft out of Auburn and since then has been setting the baseball world ablaze with what he’s doing and how fast he’s moving. Oh yeah and the no-hitter he threw in his Double-A debut this year. In 12 starts and 75.2 innings between High-A and Double-A Erie, he’s posted a 0.95 ERA, 2.23 FIP, .159 BAA, 0.69 WHIP, 8.7 K/9, 1.3 BB/9, 26.7-percent K-rate, and 3.8-percent BB-rate. At 6’3” and 220 pounds he has the frame to be an ace of a major league staff and with his smooth, tight, repeatable delivery that relies on his legs and core to build the moment there aren’t durability questions with him that there are with other pitching prospects. Mize is four-pitch pitcher using a fastball, slider, splitter, and cutter to keep hitters uncomfortable in the box. The arsenal is led by a fastball that sits 94-97 mph with late movement, a mid-80s slider that is tight and less of a big sweeper, an upper-80s cutter that works in to righties and away from lefties, and a mid-80s splitter that completely drops off the table at the plate. All of the pitches play up because of his elite command and control not to mention that they all grade out as plus-pitches in their own right. Mize will be the future ace of the Tigers as soon as the middle of next year although he doesn’t have the true strikeout upside as a typical ace does, he will still put up about one per inning.
Matt Manning , RHP DET – Mize’s rotation mate at Erie, Manning has been just as good, if not better as he really rounds into form after being taken ninth overall in the 2016 draft out of the prep ranks. In 2019, he’s pitched 71.1 innings all at Double-A in 12 starts with an 88:20 K:BB ratio and a 2.14 ERA, 2.17 FIP, 0.93 WHIP, and a .179 BAA. The 6’6” 215 pound righty has a three-pitch mix using a 95-96 mph fastball, that plays up due to the extension in the delivery, as the anchor with a low-80s curveball that is an 11-to-5 pitch due to his high-three-quarters delivery and a changeup that sits in the mid-80s with decent depth to it. The delivery plus his height allows Manning to get on top of hitters quickly and lets his stuff play up as does the control he has on all three pitches. He has really worked on bringing his walk rates down of late as they have dropped from 4.53 to 3.33 to 2.52 between A-ball, High-A, and Double-A. Manning has the upside of a number-two starter when all is said and done and should be moving with Mize in lock step at this point given what they’ve both been showing and that means the 21-year-old righty should be up in the majors by mid next season as the Tigers really start to put in place their future rotation.
Southern League
Hitters
Drew Waters, OF ATL – I’ve talked about Cristian Pache previously, but Atlanta has another highly touted outfield prospect in Waters who is tearing up the Southern League at Double-A Mississippi. In 62 games he’s hitting .328/.374/.508 with three homers, 40 runs, 22 RBI, 10 steals, 20 doubles, and eight triples. Waters also has a .399 wOBA and .459 BABIP to this point as well. The Braves drafted him in the 2017 June draft in the second round and since then the 20-year-old has been a fast riser through the system having gone through A-ball and High-A last season. At 6’2” and 183 pounds he has the frame to be toolsy outfielder at the major league level and that frame should produce 20-25 home run power once he gets a better handle on using leverage in his swing. The switch-hitter is better from the left side of the plate the moment but does have raw power from both sides and has worked hard to remove the buggywhip action from his swing to this point. Overall, Waters has above-average tools across the board and make him a candidate to hit likely in the two-hole in the lineup routinely as he uses his speed to steal double-digit bags and get into scoring position frequently.
Brandon Marsh, OF LAA – The Angels took the outfielder out of the Georgia Prep ranks in 2016 in the second round of the 2016 draft. Marsh is a big-framed, 21-year-old at 6’4” and 215 pounds and uses that frame to cover a lot of ground defensively at all three outfield positions. At Double-A Mobile this year he’s hitting .292/.394/.391 with a homer, 17 RBI, 14 runs, and nine steals in 45 games. While he does have 50-grade, or average power, it has yet to show up as he had just 10 homers in his first full pro season in 2018 but did steal 14 bags with his 60-grade or low-tier plus speed. The bat tools are all at least major league average but he has yet to really bust out all of them, besides average, which in 841 at-bats he has a .308/.373/.434 triple slash. Marsh has shown patience at the plate with a career walk rate hovering around 13-percent though his near 27-percent K-rate so far will have to come down before he really want to make great use of all of his tools and hit for more power. He should be a big part of the coming outfield trifecta the Angels are growing with Mike Trout , Jo Adell , and Marsh filling the third role while either being a number two hitter or a number six hitter in the lineup.
Pitchers
Ian Anderson , RHP ATL – The Braves took some heat when they drafted Anderson number three overall in 2016, but that faith in the high school right-hander is really starting to pay off as he’s become a top-30 prospect in baseball and the number three prospect for the Braves system. This year at Double-A Mississippi, over 65.2 innings in 13 starts, he has a 3.02 ERA, 3.27 FIP, an 11.79 K/9, 30.6-percent K-rate, .204 BAA, and a 1.31 WHIP. Anderson has a three-pitch mix starting with a fastball that sits 93-94 but can run up to 96 with very good downhill plane that misses bats or generates a high ground ball rate. He backs the fastball up with a changeup and curveball that are both above-average and plus at times and work to all quadrants of the zone. That mix will allow him to continue to strike out hitters at a high rate, 86 in 65.2 innings this year and he likely doesn’t need a fourth pitch to achieve his floor of a number two starter. The 6’3” 170-pound frame is a bit lanky but his smooth repeatable delivery allows him to be more durable than the size assumes he would be. He does need to work on his command some more though as he has a 4.93 BB/9 rate this year and was near four last year in 119.1 innings between High-A and Double-A. Anderson is likely coming up in 2021 as part of the Braves coming rotation so long as his walk rates get more in check.
Texas League
Hitters
Gavin Lux , SS LAD – Another draftee from the 2016 draft, Lux went 20th overall to the Dodgers out of the Wisconsin High School ranks. In 2019, at Double-A Tulsa, Lux is hitting .303/.358/.514 with 11 home runs, 38 runs, 31 RBI, and four steals in 53 games and 218 at-bats. That line isn’t really anything new as last year he put up a .324/.399/.514 with 15 home runs, 85 runs, 57 RBI, and 13 steals in 116 games in 2018. He is one of the top prospects at shortstop, which is saying something as it’s a loaded position down on the farm, and has skills that project him as a 20-20 threat at the highest level though his throwing errors have been an issue as he has 70 errors in 248 games at shortstop, mainly on throwing errors leading to many, including myself thinking that he will move to second base long term, also not mention the presence of Corey Seager at short at the major league club. He should be up late-2020 but the defense is definitely a major concern.
Pitchers
Justin Dunn , RHP SEA – Dunn was one of the key pieces in the blockbuster Edwin Díaz deal this past offseason between the Mets and Mariners. Dunn is one of the more exciting young pitching prospects in the minors and he’s picked up where he left off even with changing organizations. Dunn uses a four-pitch mix starting with a fastball that sits 93-95 and has running life, two distinct breaking balls in a slider and curveball that both show plus at times, and a still developing changeup though he shows feel for it. The 6’2” 185-pound right-hander needs to work on getting left-handed hitters out more effectively, but if that changeup develops that will certainly help. At Double-a Arkansas, Dunn has a 3.50 ERA, 3.03 FIP, 11.17 K/9, 2.50 BB/9. 28.9-percent K-rate, 1.26 WHIP, and .251 BAA in 54 innings and 11 starts in 2019. The 23-year-old has the floor of a mid-rotation starter but the upside of a number two if he can develop the changeup in the next year or so. Expect him in Seattle in the second half of 2020 at his current pace of development.