Does this article really need much of a preamble? The title pretty much says it all. Here are guys who have the chance to finish the season with a ranking significantly higher than their average draft position (ADP).
Rafael Devers , BOS
Devers’ first full season is viewed by most as a disappointment, but there are some things to like from his first 700-plus major league plate appearances. Most importantly, his 24.4 percent strikeout rate isn’t a prohibitive number. When researching this article, many a player with a strikeout rate well in excess of 30 percent was considered and subsequently thrown out. Entering his age-22 season, Devers could easily improve his plate discipline, but even if he doesn’t, he’s not a massive swing-and-miss liability.
Obviously, all areas of his game are subject to improvement given his age, but the most important progress he needs to make from a fantasy perspective is adding more line drives to his game. Devers hits the ball hard as he ranked T-53 in exit velocity last year out of the just over 500 hitters who put at least 40 balls in play. Unfortunately, he’s hitting a lot of worm burners with a 47.2 percent groundball rate. However, he did basically trade three percentage points on his ground ball rate for three percentage points on his fly ball rate last year, so that shows some effort to elevate more. If he can alter his approach and hit more balls on a line, he could see significant gains in home runs and batting average.
Devers has popped up in the typical “best-shape-of-his-life” headlines we often see at this time of year, which don’t necessarily mean a ton. But there’s an argument to be made that they matter more for younger hitters than they do for older hitters who are on the wrong side of the aging curve. It’s entirely possible that Devers has been relying purely on God-given talent for most of his young life and has never tried to eat or condition properly. What were you doing when you were 21 like Devers was last year? Eating salads and running double-digit miles every week? Or were you pounding light beers (with or without corn syrup), eating pizza more than once a week and maybe inhaling carcinogens from time to time?
Devers is going in the 12th round on average (in twelve-team leagues), which puts him in the 80-90 range among hitters. It’s not difficult to envision him finishing the season as a top-50 hitter, which would represent a significant return in value. At the very least, he seems like a safe pick at his current price. But there’s upside for this young hitter who was ranked as the #22 prospect in baseball by Fangraphs heading into the 2017 season. If everything goes right, Devers could be a top-25 hitter.
Kyle Tucker, HOU
We’re going to list Tucker here because a lot of what was just said about Devers applies to Tucker as well. Tucker also had a disappointing 2018, but he only had 72 plate appearances. It would be silly to let that scare you off a consensus top hitting prospect. However, within those 72 PA, Tucker did some encouraging stuff.
Tucker hit the ball hard in his limited sample size with an exit velocity that ranked tied for 67th. Exit velocity is a stat that begins to stabilize very quickly, so even though Tucker only put 51 balls in play last year, we can be fairly confident he’s going to hit the ball hard at the major league level. Tucker also displayed solid plate discipline in limited work with a sub-20 percent strikeout rate and an 8.3 percent walk rate, both numbers that are better than what Devers has done to date, by the way. Tucker’s real problem was a .176 BABIP and a 0.0 percent HR/FB rate.
Tucker is basically going undrafted with an ADP of 329. There are 22 starting spots on a normal 12-team roster, and everyone has made 22 picks by pick number 264. Tucker has enough upside that he seems worthy of a spot on your bench until he gets called up, which might not take too long.
Josh Reddick is 32 and posted a 99 wRC+ last season, and he’s the competition for Tucker at a corner outfield slot. Tucker could also find his way into the lineup if 35-year-old first baseman Yuli Gurriel struggles and is replaced by likely DH Tyler White . It’s also possible that White struggles and that’s enough to get Tucker to the majors quickly. Houston hasn’t been overly aggressive in free agency this year and it’s entirely possible that’s been the case because they know they have legitimate options in the minors.
Franmil Reyes , SD
If you look at Reyes’ stat line from last year, a 285-plate-appearance major league debut, there are some red flags. His 28.1 percent strikeout rate is a bit high, and that concern is compounded by a contact rate just under 70 percent. You can also look at his .345 BABIP, which was done without any speed that might make it repeatable, and become very worried about his batting average downside. That’s especially true when you consider the strikeouts and the BABIP regression together.
But if you’re just looking at the base stats, you’re missing some things with Reyes. Reyes clearly started to figure things out at the end of his debut season, but a rough first 100-ish plate appearances are making his first major league stats look mediocre. In his first 111 PA Reyes posted a wRC+ of only 87 with an ugly strikeout rate of 37.8 percent. Reyes was briefly demoted at that point and after his return on August 5 he posted a 155 wRC+ with a 21.8 percent strikeout rate the rest of the way. That is an incredible turnaround and it makes clear that Reyes has way more upside than his 2018 totals would leave you to believe.
Reyes’ calling card is his power. The dude is a massive six-foot-five and 275 pounds, and he can drill it. Reyes ranked 17th in average exit velocity last season (min. 100 balls in play), and he maxed out with a 115.4 mph batted ball last season. That’s a skill that isn’t going anywhere, and, without too much risk of him swinging-and-missing his way out of the lineup thanks to the quick plate discipline improvements he made last year, he should get the chance to put that skill to work in the middle third of San Diego’s improving lineup all season long. His ADP is well outside the top 200, which is silly for a guy with easy 30-plus home potential.
Michael Fulmer , DET
Fulmer already had his breakout as a rookie in 2016 when he won Rookie of the Year by posting a 3.06 ERA and 1.12 WHIP. The next year he posted a respectable 3.83/1.15 in the ratios, but his SIERA ballooned up to 4.48. Last year the chickens came home to roost when Fulmer cratered with a 4.69/1.31 ratio combination. As a result, Fulmer is squarely back in a place where he could break out for a second time. He’s going at pick 357 on average, which is to say he’s being largely undrafted.
The things Fulmer has going for him are top-notch velocity and a third pitch. Fulmer has consistently thrown heat, even last year when he was apparently dealing with a knee issue, and he has averaged more than 96 miles per hour on his fastball, both his four-seam version and his sinker version. He ranked top-10 in velo last year among pitchers who threw at least 1500 pitches, which was almost 150 pitchers.
Fulmer also has a solid slider that has graded out as a plus pitch per Fangraphs pitch values in each of his three seasons, even last year when he struggled mightily. For a lot of pitchers, the fastball-slider combo is all they have, and it’s tough to project them for a breakout as a starter without a third pitch. Fulmer has a changeup that he has used around 15-20 percent of the time in his career, but it has not been effective since his rookie season and was a downright liability last year.
Fulmer had knee surgery in the offseason, and the hope is that a healthy knee can help him find his changeup again. If he does, he’ll pair it with elite velocity, a plus slider, and a pitcher-friendly home ballpark. With a working changeup, he could easily get his ERA back into the mid-threes with a strikeout rate north of 20 percent. Even if you don’t take Fulmer on draft day, make sure you keep him on your watch list early in the season.
Josh James, HOU
The issue with James, as it is with his teammate Tucker, is playing time. The fifth spot in the Astros rotation is up for grabs with James, Framber Valdez, Brady Rodgers and Brad Peacock in the mix for the spot. Wade Miley technically has the fourth spot, but it’s not hard to envision that not working out and two of these guys in the mix for the last spot ending up getting plenty of starts. Peacock seems much more likely to end up in the pen and Rodgers is a 28-year-old with less than 10 major league innings, so it’s down to James and Valdez.
Even if James doesn’t make the rotation, he’ll be in the pen and has enough strikeout stuff to still have a bit of value in relief. But the breakout upside requires innings, so he’ll need to start sooner rather than later to deliver big value. The good news is that James did thrown 137.1 innings across three levels last year, so he could easily throw more than 150 innings this season, which is a threshold less than 80 pitchers cleared last year.
As with Fulmer, the main appeal with James is velocity. In 23 big league innings last year, James averaged 97.5 mph on his fastball, and about two-thirds of his innings came in starts. James also has a slider and a changeup, and he threw each pitch more than 15 percent of the time last season. It was a small sample size, but his changeup graded out positively. That’s obviously encouraging given that the change is the third pitch young pitchers often have so much trouble developing.
There’s some hype around James’ name as his ADP is a healthy 205 and 80 among pitchers. That’s certainly not free, and you would be using a pick that technically should go to someone that will have a spot in your starting fantasy rotation. There’s obviously risk that James isn’t even in his own team’s starting rotation at the beginning of the season, but it’s late enough that you’re not counting on getting much from the pick anyway. Non-closer middle relievers and older starters are being drafted around James, and none of them have his upside.