Even though Max Scherzer did not win the National League Cy Young Award in 2018, he reached career highs in strikeouts (300) while yielding only 69 percent contact of his pitches. Scherzer’s only the fifth pitcher since 2001 and the 17th pitcher since 1900 to record 300 strikeouts. His 220.1 innings to reach 300 strikeouts represents the fifth fewest ever and he allowed only 150 hits to set a record for the least amount of hits given up with at least this many strikeouts.

Scherzer’s made at least 30 starts for 10 straight seasons. Last year, he’s one of six pitchers with a strikeout percentage of at least 30 percent and a walk rate below seven percent with a minimum of 150 innings. Scherzer also recorded the highest whiff percentage with his fastball (16 percent) and a minimum of 1,250 pitches thrown.

Due to his herculean workload and ability to generate strikeouts, Scherzer’s ascended to the top of fantasy pitchers targeted in 2019. Over the last three years, he’s 55 - 20 with 869 strikeouts in 658.2 innings with a 2.64 ERA, 3.20 xFIP and 0.92 WHIP. Within this sample, Scherzer’s 2.87 SIERA, 27.5 strikeouts minus walks percentage and .185 batting average against underscore his dominance. Here’s a list of his accomplishments in the National League:

  • Led the league in strikeouts in each of the last three years.
  • Yielded the lowest batting average against the last two seasons and finished second in 2016.
  • Scherzer’s logged the most innings pitched in two of the last three years.
  • His ERA ranked third last year (2.53), second in 2017 (2.51) and eighth in 2016 (2.96).

Scherzer’s arsenal fuels his success. He features a four-seam fastball, slider, changeup, cutter and curve. Here’s a look at them using Statcast’s 3-D in game overlay:

And how he deployed them last year:

Even working with a reduced whiff percentage on his cutter last year, Scherzer still finished with a career best in strikeouts. When trying to decide if he’s the first pitcher off the board in fantasy drafts, it’s easy to target to Scherzer even though he will be 34 in 2019. Here’s his whiff percentage rate by pitch courtesy of Brooks Baseball:

Many consider a whiff percentage of 18 in this data set to be an elite level. Last year, Scherzer’s change (18.03), slider (27.47) and cutter (18.52) eclipsed this level. His fastball, as noted above, finished first in the majors in whiff percentage. As long as his body holds up, Scherzer’s a fantasy monster capable of leading the National League in strikeouts. This factors into his price point in drafts and auctions.

When perusing his projections, Scherzer’s stable kwFIP on xSTATS display his skills. In 2016, Scherzer finished with a 2.83 kwFIP, in 2017 (2.78) and last year, a 2.50 mark almost in line with his final ERA on the season. Even with some regression due to age, Scherzer’s projections reflect the security within his profile:

When arriving at his final 2019 statistics, it will be a matter of innings pitched. Given his elite skills, health profile and projectability, Scherzer’s worth the price. It will matter on how an owner builds a roster in upcoming drafts and auctions. He’s due for some age relative regression, but Scherzer continues to produce. Just weigh this within his cost moving forward.

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Statistical Credits:

Fangraphs.com, BaseballSavant.com, BrooksBaseball.net, xSTATS.org, THE BAT courtesy of Derek Carty, ATC courtesy of Ariel Cohen, Steamerprojections.com