Gary Sánchez entered the 2018 season as the most desirable fantasy catcher, due to his offensive upside and the sheer fact that he was viewed as a game changer at the position. In just 53 games back in 2016, Sanchez hit 20 home runs with a .299 batting average for the Bronx Bombers. In his first full season in pinstripes, he hit 33 home runs, drove in 90 runs and hit .278 across 122 games. However, 2018 was a different story and here are a few catchers who outscored Gary Sánchez : Tucker Barnhart , Francisco Cervelli , Kurt Suzuki , Robinson Chirinos and Yan Gomes . Believe that. Sanchez ended the year as the Number 13 ranked catcher, massively disappointing fantasy owners and the Yankee faithful alike.

Compared to his 2017 season, the 2018 campaign for Gary Sánchez saw his ISO drop 33 points, his batting average fall over 90 points, slugging dropped from .531 to .406 and his BABIP fell to sub-.200. He sprayed the ball around the field in similar fashion to recent years, and while his soft contact increased a bit, it’s not enough to explain a batting average drop off of nearly 100 points.

Why exactly was 2018 such a down year? His large drop off in BABIP certainly didn’t help. Batting average   ed on batted balls in play (BABIP) is a quick metric to identify a player’s season and whether or not it was lucky or unlucky, in a nutshell. Comparing a player’s BABIP to his batting average is the offensive version of comparing a pitcher’s ERA and FIP. Sanchez was a .300+ BABIP guy up until last year’s .197 mark.

Likely playing a part in the steep drop was the fact that Sanchez hit more balls in the air and less line drives. Additionally, when he did hit the ball in the air, it wasn’t leaving the yard as frequently as years past.

 

GB/FB

LD%

GB%

FB%

HR/FB

2016

1.44

16.4%

49.3%

34.2%

40.0%

2017

1.15

21.1%

42.3%

36.6%

25.4%

2018

1.00

14.3%

42.9%

42.9%

18.2%


Sure, he’s never going to replicate his 40.0 HR/FB metric in his superb rookie season, but his 18.2 percent mark in 2018 was comparable to Travis Shaw (18.3%), Yasmani Grandal (18.0%) and Jonathan Villar (17.9%). Now, his 2017 mark of 25.4% was top 10 in the league that season, along the likes of Cody Bellinger , Paul Goldschmidt and Steven Souza Jr. What kind of guy is Sanchez going to be? He has exceptional power, not just for a catcher, but for any major league hitter, and not only is his home park beneficial for power hitters, but his division boasts hitter-friendly parks as well. Sanchez should see his mark be closer to 2017 than 2018.

Additionally, Sanchez was swinging through pitches with more regularity last season than years prior, most notably the fastball and the curveball. See for yourself.

PITCH

2017 WHIFF PERCENTAGE

2018 WHIFF PERCENTAGE

4-Seam Fastball

10.60%

11.01%

Curve

13.81%

16.67%


It’s also worth noting that with two strikes last season, Sanchez hit .059, .105, .100, and .091 against the 4-seam fastball, change, slider and curveball respectively. Furthermore, Sanchez had 18 hits with two strikes against him, compared to 94 punch outs. Yikes.

Lastly, let’s not ignore the fact that baseball is 90 percent mental, and perhaps his defensive struggles carried over to the offensive side of the plate. The criticism on Sanchez’s defense continues to grow and 2018 might have been his worst defensive season yet. Sure, defense doesn’t matter in fantasy, but it could down the line, because the Yankees may eventually convert Sanchez to a different position. Last season, Sanchez tied for the league-lead in passed balls (16), despite playing 108.1 less innings than fellow co-leader Grandal. While it may not necessarily be able to be proven correct, I wouldn’t go against the notion that his defensive struggles and mounting criticism didn’t do any favors for him offensively.

Steamer projects a solid bounce back 2019 campaign, seeing Sanchez slash .245/.322/.482 with 30 home runs and 83 RBI. At the time of writing, Sanchez’s ADP (per NFBC) is 57.36, which makes him the second catcher off the board, behind J.T. Realmuto (57.34). Despite having offseason shoulder surgery, Sanchez should be ready in plenty of time and General Manager Brian Cashman has reiterated the notion that Sanchez is the team’s primary catcher in 2019. Sanchez should bounce back following a rough 2018 season, and while there is some risk involved with him, he offers elite, game changing upside at a position that lacks fantasy stardom.

Statistical Credits
Fangraphs.com
BrooksBaseball.net