While America's pastime may not see the bone-crushing collisions of football or hockey, the meticulous nature of the game leads to stints on the disabled list for many players. Unlike other sports, a fingernail issue can be a huge problem in baseball, not to mention the fact that with pitchers hurling an object nearly 100 miles per hour or more, there are due to be some scary injuries. Sliding into bases can lead to broken ankles or fingers, and a pulled hamstring or back muscle can derail an entire season.
When making your selections on draft day, it's imperative that you are aware of the fact that every player is at risk of injury. Just by stepping onto the field, they are at risk, it just so happens that some have better luck or are just able to avoid injuries. Nobody is truly risk free in fantasy baseball.
Lastly, before jumping into things, it's critical to know that just because a player gets injured a few times, does not make them injury prone. The main difference between being injury prone and just finding a way to get injured are the types of injuries. For example, if a player misses time with a lacerated spleen, and then the following year it's a line drive off the elbow, and then the following season it's due to a lacerated finger from a drone incident, that player is not injury prone. Sure, that player is unlucky, but those are freak injuries. An injury prone player is one that consistently finds themselves on the disabled list with soft tissue injuries or a similar type injury has lingered for long periods of time. Grady Sizemore was injury prone, and even perhaps someone like Adrián Béltre , but that was also due to being at an advanced age. Knowing the types of injuries is incredibly important.
2017 was the first year of the 10-day DL, and the number of DL stints took a sharp increase from years prior. Take a look at the injury data from 2017 (per Roster Resource)
| Number of Players on DL | Total Days on DL | Average DL Stint (in days) |
Hitters | 235 | 11,883 | 50.6 |
Pitchers | 302 | 20,158 | 66.7 |
Did the trend continue in 2018? Let's take a look.
| Number of Players on DL | Total Days on DL | Average DL Stint (in days) |
Hitters | 246 | 17151 | 69.7 |
Pitchers | 342 | 32,713 | 95.7 |
The trend not only continued, but it increased across the board! The number of hitters and pitchers that hit the disabled list both increased, as did the total days on the disabled list. Not only did 2018 see more injuries, or at least issues that caused time on the disabled list, but the injuries were harder hitting and cost teams more days. The jump in average DL stint was alarming for pitchers, seeing as the total days on the disabled list jumped by over 12,000 days!
Now, let’s take a look at some players who are no stranger to our fantasy nemesis, the disabled list.
A few years ago, Kershaw and injured didn’t go together, but unfortunately, the two have gotten to know each other quite well over the past few years. Kershaw hasn’t thrown more than 180 innings since the 2015 campaign and the injuries have piled up. Furthermore, they are all interconnected in a way, or at least related. He’s spent time on the disabled list for biceps tendinitis last season, and some sort of back issue has sent him to the shelf in 2014, 2016, 2017 and 2018! Kershaw is getting older and the injuries, especially the back injuries, are becoming more chronic issues than acute. Most are starting to recognize that while Kershaw remains one of the more dominant pitchers on a per-inning basis, he’s no longer the horse that he once was, and in his 31-year-old season, another trip to the disabled list for a back issue seems more probable than not. We aren’t advocating to avoid Kershaw like the plague, but understand the risk associated with the southpaw and the fact that he’s no longer a game-changing difference-maker at his position.
If one could guarantee a full season from Paxton, would he be a top-5 pitcher in fantasy baseball? It sure seems like it. However, Paxton always seems to find his way to the disabled list. Since joining the big league squad back in 2014, while donning a Mariners uniform, Paxton posted season inning totals of 74.0 (2014), 67.0 (2015), 121.0 (2016), 136.0 (2017) and 160.0 (2018). There was some minor league work sprinkled in a few of those seasons, but those weren’t counted in the above statistics. There was a freak injury or two sprinkled in, but the injuries to the throwing-reliant muscles of Paxton are piling up. See for yourself:
YEAR | INJURIES |
2014 | Left lat strain |
2015 | Strained tendon in left middle finger |
2016 | Left elbow contusion |
2017 | Strained left forearm, strained left pec |
2018 | Lower back inflammation, left forearm contusion |
Pitching for the Yankees is exciting, as he will get plenty of run support, which should add a few more wins, but pitching in a different park won’t fix any of the lingering, or potential, issues with Paxton’s coveted left arm. His home park is far from pitcher friendly, but it could be another frustrating season for Paxton’s owners in fantasy baseball. When healthy, Paxton is one of the best pitchers in baseball, but he hasn’t thrown more than 160 innings in the big leagues (excluding minor leagues).
The calcifications in his heels last year derailed his fantasy season, but don’t forget the fact that a strained hip flexor sent him to the disabled list beforehand. Cespedes is now 33-years-old and within the past three seasons, he’s dealt with quadriceps, hamstring, and hip flexor issues. He’s not getting any younger and being limited to just 38 big league games last year is a concern. Cespedes hasn’t posted a season line of 30 home runs and 100 RBI since 2015, which coincidentally was the last time he played more than 135 games in a season. His current ADP is super low, but the Mets are mum on a timetable, let alone what sort of expectations he can provide in 2019. If you have the roster space, you can take a shot on Cespedes late in your draft, but since the best ability is availability, and you want to minimize the amount of injury-prone players on your team, drafting Cespedes is risky to say the least.
Hill will turn 39 in March and entering his 15th big league season, and despite having just 874.2 big league innings under his belt (753 in the minors), Hill carries as much, if not more risk than any other pitcher in baseball. His career high in inning pitched is 195.0 innings, which came back in 2007 (!!) with the Chicago Cubs. Since then, it’s 135.2 and 132.2, which came in 2017 and 2018 as a member of the Los Angeles Dodgers. Hill hasn’t been placed on the disabled list with an elbow or shoulder injury since 2012, but nagging inflammation and blisters on his throwing hand have sent him to the disabled list. Yes, blisters! Hill has been placed on the disabled list with a blister injury in each of the past three seasons. At his current ADP, there are other pitchers with more durability that are safer selections for your fantasy squad.
There is no denying the fact that Cabrera just might be one of the best pure hitters to play the beloved game of baseball. Cabrera is going into his 17th big league season and Cabrera was the poster boy for durability for the majority of his career. As he’s getting older, we’ve seen his games played decrease. He was limited to just 38 games last season, and Cabrera has played 135 or more games just once (2016) in the past four seasons. The ruptured left biceps tendon took most of 2018 from him, but he dealt with a hamstring strain a month before the biceps injury. In prior years, he was shelved with groin and calf strains. Being in the American League helps, as he can serve as the designated hitter to attempt to alleviate the escalation of nagging injuries, but in what will be his 36-year-old season, Cabrera doesn’t have the elite fantasy upside anymore. If he can play a full season this year, he will hit about .270-.280 with 22-27 home runs, which would be excellent at his current ADP. However, a clean bill of health just doesn’t seem to be in the cards for the aging vet.
Pollock played 157 games in 2015, hitting .315 with 20 home runs and 39 stolen bases. Since that season, Pollock has played in just 237 games, an average of just 79 games per year, with just 37 home runs and 37 steals. He played in 113 games last year, which is the most since that 2015 season and the third-most games played in a season in his career. His injuries haven’t always been soft tissue ailments, but he just has some bad luck and always finds his way on the disabled list at some point in the season. He has great fantasy upside, as he posted a 20/10 season in just 113 games, but you cannot simply overlook his injury history. The best ability is availability, and simply put, Pollock hasn’t been the model of durability during his big league career. Don’t be blinded by the potential upside, and every extra dollar you put into Pollock increases the risk your fantasy team is accruing.
As mentioned numerous times throughout this article, the best ability is availability. Furthermore, there are substantial differences when drafting players with notable injury histories in the first round comapred to the latter rounds of a draft. In the last round of your draft, if you want to take a shot on Cespedes, go right ahead, because losing a 22nd round pick won't be nearly as detrimental to your team as taking a risk on Kershaw in the second round of your drafts, let alone as your first pitcher!
While it's impossible to draft a full team with no injury risk, or even minimal, attempting to mitigate your risk by avoiding players with lengthy injury histories is key. Sure, a stroke of bad luck may hit your fantasy team, but like a 98 mile per hour fastball off the hand, you can't control or plan for that! Injuries suck, but you cannot feel bad for the person, especially when they overdraft players with well-documented injuries.