| Age: | 27 |
| Bats/Throws: | R/R |
| Height/Weight: | 6'3", 210 lbs |
| Position: | Outfield |
There’s no way to quantify how events can affect a player. After a strong debut in 2015, Stephen Piscotty turned in a solid campaign as a follow-up, but he lost traction last year. First, Piscotty landed on the disabled list for the first time in May due to a hamstring strain and a second trip in July with a groin injury. Then reports surfaced about his Mom’s health and her diagnosis with ALS. Not having his legs as a foundation seemed trivial compared to his Mom’s upcoming battle.
Even though Piscotty will be entering his vaunted Age-27 season, he also seems to be at a crossroads for fantasy. Going back to 2015, Piscotty hit seven home runs with a .305/.359/.479 slash line in only 256 plate appearances. This drove his average draft position to 188.62 in the NFBC data as the 50th outfielder taken overall. His follow up campaign did not quite live up to the hype, but Piscotty launched 22 home runs with 85 RBI and a solid .273/.343/.457 line in 153 games. As a result, Piscotty crept up to the 30th overall outfielder taken prior to the 2017 season with an ADP of 129.76 in NFBC drafts.
Then, last year happened. Piscotty never found solid ground after his early injury, incurred the next one and finished with a .235/.342/.367 slash line and only nine home runs in 401 plate appearances. His weighted runs created plus crashed below league average (92) further underscoring Piscotty’s poor season and placing his draft value in the 19th round.
However, beneath the surface, some interesting events occurred in terms of plate discipline. Piscotty turned in his best walk percentage, lowered his swinging strike percentage and swings at pitches outside the strike zone (O-Swing). Here’s a chart to illustrate:
Whether the numbers were a result of being patient due to the injuries or a progression in his discipline, they’re tough to ignore. With the knowledge of BABIP being fluky, Piscotty could be in line for positive migration in terms of his average with the better command of the strike zone and increased walk rates.
There can be some lingering concern about Piscotty’s power peak, but it’s going to be under the microscope this season. Going back to his minor league profile, Piscotty only hit 43 home runs in 1,511 at-bats during his time in the minors with a .287/.360/.449 slash line. Piscotty’s been able to maintain a solid on-base profile even with his struggles last year, but what will be the outcome of his power?
Believe it or not, Piscotty will benefit from a park upgrade moving to Oakland from St. Louis. According to Fantasy Alarm’s ballpark factors, Oakland ranked eighth in home run average while Piscotty’s former ballpark finished in 27th place. Using Statcast data, Piscotty’s average fly balls in 2015 (328 feet), 2016 (333 feet) and last year (330 feet), do not show much variance. Injuries could have contributed to Piscotty’s ground ball spike last year, especially in the second half, but time will tell.
During the second half, Piscotty did turn in a career best hard contact rate of 37.8 percent and pulled the ball 48.8 percent of the time. There’s no way to tell if it’s a change in approach or just a small sample. But it could be encouraging. With health, his new ballpark and a change in venue, it may just be the change Piscotty needed to unlock his bounce back potential.
Early reports project Piscotty to hit sixth in the A’s lineup. Hitters in this spot of the lineup scored a cumulative 74 runs with 87 RBI in 607 at-bats last year. This will factor in to trying to project Piscotty’s season. Also, looking at his past numbers, the BABIP in 2015 seemed to high, last year’s too low but 2016 seems just right.
As to health, Piscotty’s averaged 545 at-bats between 2014-to-2016, so this will be the guide in trying to determine his baseline for this year. For perspective, Piscotty’s steamer 600, depth chart and Baseball-Reference’s 162 game average were added to the chart along with my personal best guess to his 2018 season in Oakland:
Projections aside, due to the reduced price tag in drafts, Piscotty’s worth the risk. Factor in a chance to parlay his improved plate discipline with a renewed sense of security being near his family to unlock the potential Piscotty displayed during his second half debut in 2015 and first half of 2016. He could exceed his projection, especially in the counting statistics with at-bats accrued and staying healthy. Unlocking all of this in his Age-27 would be welcomed by those who take a chance on a Piscotty rebound, which oddly enough, seems within reach.
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Statistical Credits:
Fangraphs.com, Baseball-Reference.com, BaseballSavant.com