| Age: | 28 |
| Bats/Throws: | L/L |
| Height/Weight: | 6'4", 225 lbs |
| Position: | First Base |
Last season was surely one to remember for Hosmer. Not only did it turn out to be his last season as a member of the Kansas City Royals, but he tied his career high in both home runs and runs scored while improving his batting average to a career-high .318. Hosmer did a lot of things right that may not have been evident. His walk rate jumped to a career-high 9.8 percent and he cut back on his strikeouts nearly four-and-a-half percent from 2016’s 19.8 percent. Hosmer continued to drive the ball to all parts of the field and hit more line drives.
Hosmer parlayed a big 2017 into an even bigger contract with the San Diego Padres. The 28-year-old first baseman signed an eight-year, $144M deal and many fantasy owners are trying to predict what sort of asset Hosmer will be in 2018. The quick answer is to just diminish his value this year because he’s going to arguably one of the most pitcher-friendly parks in the game.
The first base position in fantasy baseball is where power is key and many owners are targeting the big boppers at the position. Hosmer was always the “decent average, but less than adequate power” guy at the position. He’s changed that a bit, swatting 25 home runs each of the past two seasons while hitting .266 and .318, not to mention an astounding .385 on-base percentage in 2017.
In fact, perhaps Hosmer’s power outburst the past two seasons is even more impressive than one might believe, considering that Kauffman Stadium is far from friendly to hitters (see below).
Left Field |
| Right Field |
0.76 | Home Runs | 0.82 |
1.26 | Doubles | 0.98 |
1.01 | Batting Average | 1.03 |
0.98 | Slugging Percentage | 0.97 |
Average = 1.0 (Statistics provided by Swish Analytics)
As seen in the table above, home runs to right field at Kauffman Stadium are not an easy feat. Hosmer hit 16 of his 25 home runs at home, five of which were pulled to right field, and seven oppo-tacos to left field. Could a power surge continue to a new career high in Petco Park? It’s very possible, but Hosmer will need to continue in the same positive direction in terms of launch angle and batted-ball rates.
In 2016, Hosmer hit 25 home runs, a career high at the time, despite recording a sky-high 58.9-percent ground-ball rate and a career-low 16.5 line-drive rate. In 2017, both numbers improved, with the grounders dropping over three percent and the line-drive rating jumping up to 22.2 percent, the third-highest mark of his career.
Since the start of 2015, only 10 hitters have a higher ground-ball rate than Hosmer’s 55.4 percent. Some of those guys include, Nori Aoki, Dee Gordon, Christian Yelich, Jonathan Villar and Ian Desmond. As you can see, big time power production is devoid amongst the aforementioned players, but Hosmer took a step in the right direction last season, and if that can continue and the ground-ball rate can get below or close to 50 percent, Hosmer could experience a big power surge. Hosmer will never be a 40-home run hitter, and we should all know that by now, but a left-hander of his stature has 30-homer power for sure. However, that sort of season won’t happen if he has a launch-angle chart similar to that of his 2016 season seen below (via Baseball Savant).
The San Diego lineup may not shine a lot of light on Hosmer’s counting stats for the 2018 season, but it’s better than what many will think at first glance. Manny Margot at the top of the lineup is a guy who could push 40 stolen bases, meaning Hosmer would get plenty of chances to hit with runners in scoring position. If Hosmer hits fourth, Wil Myers will hit ahead of him, and despite being rather streaky, he gets on base at a good clip and knows how to take a walk. In Hosmer’s career, he’s a .296 hitter with men on base and a .292 hitter when runners are in scoring position. Don’t expect him to contend for the league lead in RBI, but he could approach 100 in his first season with his new team.
It’s not the most ideal park for a left-handed hitter, but if your fantasy league wants to buy into the fact that Petco isn’t favorable to hitters and Hosmer falls down the board, be the guy that jumps on board. He’s a nice value at his current ADP, and any extra value on top of that is just icing on the metaphorical cake.
A realistic expectation for Hosmer in 2018 is a .290 average with 25 home runs and 90 RBI, which is rather similar to his 2017 campaign.