I feel like the conventional wisdom regarding the tight end position makes sense, at least most of the time. I may be lower on Martellus Bennett than some, but I understand why people want to reach for a talented player in an Aaron Rodgers offense. I may not be as willing as some people to completely give up on Charles Clay, but I understand why he is largely going undrafted, especially considering the fact he may be catching passes from Nathan Peterman before long. That being said, I am seeing some tight end trends that are a bit more puzzling. In an effort to address them, I present to you five tight end numbers to know entering your fantasy draft.

  1. 495

Kyle Rudolph’s career-high in receiving yards in a season prior to 2016. A lot of fantasy players are treating last season like the new norm for Kyle Rudolph, and I’m not sure why we would believe that is the case. Rudolph led all tight ends with 132 targets last season after topping out at 93 in 2012. The Vikings had one of the worst offensive lines in football a year ago, so Sam Bradford was constantly making short throws to Rudolph rather than looking down the field. It is certainly possible that happens again, but do you really want to count on it? Rudolph looks like the new Gary Barnidge, who caught 79 passes on 123 targets in 2015 for a team devoid of receiving talent but fell to 55 receptions on 81 targets in 2016 when the Browns had other guys to throw to. In six NFL seasons, Rudolph has finished as a top-12 fantasy tight end just twice. He was 14th in 2015, finishing with 49 receptions on 71 targets for 495 yards and five touchdowns. I think he will finish far closer to those numbers than to his 2016 numbers.

  1. 5

Travis Kelce’s career-high in touchdowns, set as a rookie in 2014 and matched in 2015. Kelce is my number one tight end, because I think he has a higher ceiling than Greg Olsen if everything breaks right, but I have Kelce and Olsen projected for nearly identical numbers. Kelce is 6’5”, 260 lbs, so he certainly could be an end zone target, but I doubt that happens so long as Alex Smith is his quarterback. It feels like fantasy players are treating Kelce like the next Rob Gronkowski or Jimmy Graham, but you should be careful to bake much touchdown upside into his price considering we have yet to actually see it on the field.

  1. 65

The fewest receptions for Jay Cutler’s starting tight ends from 2013 to 2015. Martellus Bennett and Zach Miller combined for 87 receptions and eight touchdowns in 2015, and then Jay Cutler missed most of 2016 due to injury. Julius Thomas is largely an afterthought in most drafts, but he has a chance to become a favorite target of Jay Cutler for as long as the two of them can stay on the field. If you wait on tight end in a 10 or 12-team league, I love Thomas as a late-round target. His ceiling is high, and you can easily find a replacement if he busts or goes down with another injury.

  1. 2

The number of games last year Jordan Reed had exactly one target. It is easy to look at Reed and say “11 games of Reed and five games of whichever tight end I pick up off the waiver wire will still be the best tight end in fantasy.” It is possible it even works out that way. On the other hand, what do you do when Reed is questionable? What do you do when it looks like he will play, but he may not be 100 percent? How do you bench an active Jordan Reed? How are you going to win if he is only getting one target because he isn’t completely healthy? Reed is still my number four tight end, but unless he plummets down the draft board, I’m looking for value later in the draft.

  1. 4

Jimmy Graham’s finish in fantasy points among tight ends last season, when he was coming off a torn patellar tendon. Graham scored six touchdowns last season, a number he topped in each of his last four seasons in New Orleans. He was tied for seventh among tight ends in targets. We already know the sky is the limit for Graham, even if he never catches 99 passes in a season again. Unless Seattle goes back to running the ball more than any team in the NFL, which seems unlikely given the problems with its offensive line, it is hard to picture Graham regressing a whole lot from last season. When I see guys like Zach Ertz or Kyle Rudolph go ahead of Graham in fantasy drafts, it just makes me scratch my head.