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Last week I knocked the A.J. Green pick out of the park, as he hauled in 10 balls for 173 yards and a touchdown. In fact, until Julio Jones racked up more yards than a John Daly drive on Sunday, Green looked to be the WR play of the week with his 36.3 points on DraftKings. As for my other picks, I didn’t do so hot… Sure none of my players – aside from Jamison Crowder – were duds (M. Jones: 5 rec 74 yds, K. Benjamin: 1 TD, M. Evans: 5 rec 59 yds, C. Beasley: 3 rec 66 yds), but all of them outside of Green failed to breakthrough for big weeks. You can’t win money that way in most DFS formats. Like a gun slinging quarterback, I too have interception amnesia and a Dory-like short-term memory. Moving on to this week’s matchup analysis below…
| Off | Left WR | Def | Right CB | Analysis |
| ARI | Larry Fitzgerald | SF | Jimmie Ward | Fitz has just been rock solid all season long, but hasn’t really busted off any big games since the first week with his two touchdowns. Ward is nothing special, so while I like him in this matchup, I still won't guarantee over 100 yards or multiple touchdowns. He likely will continue to serve as the game's most consistent receiver, making him an excellent WR2 in most formats. |
| ATL | Julio Jones | DEN | Chris Harris | Julio may have just ran buck wild on a weak Panthers secondary, however he will have himself a reality check when he takes on this elite Denver defense featuring arguably the best secondary of all time. Julio is still relatively matchup proof, provided he doesn't see double-team and bracketed coverage, or what Dez Bryant used to get – double CB punt return coverage. I like Jones always, however his ceiling is likely limited here. |
| BAL | Steve Smith Sr. | WAS | Josh Norman | This will likely be the chippiest matchup of the week, as Norman is an ultra-physical corner who loves to play mindgames, while Smith is one of the last of a dying breed in that he's a scrappy WR who carries himself with a swagger and toughness that strikes fear into CB's. Regardless of the tale of the tape, I like the prime version of Norman more than I like recent form of Steve "Benjamin Button" Smith. |
| BUF | Marquise Goodwin | LA | Lamarcus Joyner | Goodwin is only good for burning guys on the 9 route and the occasional post route (think prime Torrey Smith). Joyner is nothing special here, but Goodwin is only as good as his speed and deception are a couple of times per game. He's okay to bench. |
| CAR | Kelvin Benjamin | TB | Alterraun Verner | Make no mistake, Benjamin is still the best receiver on this Panthers offense, but the question now has become can Cam Newton find a way to get him the ball? Better yet, is there a way that this offensive line can protect him long enough so that he can get the ball to the formerFlorida State National Championship hero? Verner doesn't scare me, and while he has proven me wrong a few times already this season, I like Benjamin's chances to get back on track here because Newton should have more time to throw. |
| CHI | Alshon Jeffery | IND | Vontae Davis | While I fear the Davis matchup, Jeffery should have a good time in the red zone with the recent injury to Kevin White. Consider him a guy who will be heavily targeted based off of necessity and no better option available. This should bode well for his fantasy prospects going forward. |
| CIN | A.J. Green | DAL | Morris Claiborne | Believe it or not, right now, former massive bust Morris Claiborne is leading the NFL in completion percentage against. While I don't expect him to completely shut down A.J. Green, I fear Green's chances of going wild like he did last week are slim. Combine this with the fact that the Cowboys are second in the NFL in time of possession and you have yourselves an overvalued play for Week 5. |
| CLE | Andrew Hawkins | NE | Logan Ryan | Since getting the starting job opposite Terrelle Pryor, Hawkins has done bupkis in terms of offensive statistical production. I don't expect that to change in Week 5 against a very good New England defense. |
| DAL | Dez Bryant | CIN | Adam Jones | The report on Dez is that his previously believed "hairline fracture" in his knee has been downgraded to a severe bone bruise. The translation here is that he can play once he can put pressure back on his leg while running. If he does suit up and play, Bryant will likely get his numbers, but is not expected to go off in a massive fashion. If he doesn't play, Brice Butler will start in his place like he did last week. |
| DEN | Demaryius Thomas | ATL | Robert Alford | Thomas has been consistently good this season and has really found his stride with Trevor Siemian. It appears as though Siemian will suit up this week, so Thomas should be good for about 6 rec, 100 yds, and a TD or so against the Falcons weak secondary. |
| DET | Golden Tate | PHI | Nolan Carroll | Tate has been awful so far this season, but OC Jim Bob Cooter insists that he will have a "huge" week against the Eagles. Take that for what you will; I mean, I guess he is calling the plays. Personally I don't like his game and his play this season hasn't done much to assuage that sentiment. |
| GB | Jordy Nelson | NYG | Janoris Jenkins | Nelson has improved each week, to the point that he looks to be back to 100-percent. Espcially coming off of a bye week, Nelson should feel as good as he will for the rest of the season going forward. The Giants secondary is banged up and considering Nelson's recent form, I think he has a pretty tasty matchup at home with an angry Aaron Rodgers coming off of a bye. |
| HOU | DeAndre Hopkins | MIN | Xavier Rhodes | The Vikings have been shutting down star WR's in recent weeks, the most famous of which was Rhodes vs. Beckham last Monday night. Rhodes appears to be on a hot streak so while I am not predicting a complete shutdown of Hopkins, he may not be worth the price tag in most DFS formats. |
| IND | Phillip Dorsett | CHI | Kyle Fuller | Dorsett is a big play or bust guy, so as always, start him at your own risk. |
| LA | Kenny Britt | BUF | Ronald Darby | Britt has been pretty solid so far this season (on pace for over 1,100 yards) but he was limited in practice on Wednesday, which should raise some red flags. Typically low owned, he is a good GPP play each week, but if he doesn't feel 100-percent, Britt may be a risky play – especially against a good CB in Darby. |
| MIA | DeVante Parker | TEN | Jason McCourty | Parker was underwhelming last week, however I feel that he has a chance to bounce back in a big way for Week 5 against the Titans. He remains a heavily targeted WR in this Dolphins passing attack and this Titans defense has struggled against number two options over the last couple of weeks. |
| MIN | Stefon Diggs | HOU | Johnathan Joseph | Diggs is facing a good Houston defense and is also dealing with a groin injury. It is still unclear if he will even suit up on Sunday, so it is likely best to punt on Diggs in DFS this week. |
| NE | Danny Amendola | CLE | Jamar Taylor | Cleveland's defense is a joke. Tom Brady is coming back and is angry. I like anyone who will be an option in that passing attack. Amendola should be affordable, so start him if you need a budget flex option. |
| NYG | Odell Beckham | GB | Quinten Rollins | I have been saying for a couple of weeks now that this is the circled on the calendar week that ODB gets back on track. He has a favorable matchup against a questionable Packers secondary, so he should once again be the talk of the sports world after he becomes positively animated for the first time in a while. |
| NYJ | Brandon Marshall | PIT | Ross Cockrell | Marshall – for the most part – got the best of one of the league's best CB's in Richard Sherman, and he ended up finishing the day with some rock solid numbers. He should produce adequately once again taking on a pedestrian Pittsburgh secondary in Week 5. |
| OAK | Michael Crabtree | SD | Jason Verrett | Crabtree was excellent with his 3 TD's on Sunday, and while Jason Verrett will give him more problems than Shareece Wright did last week, keep in mind that the former Texas Tech star is Derek Carr's favorite target in the red zone. He should play as a WR2 in Week 5. |
| PHI | Jordan Matthews | DET | Nevin Lawson | Matthews is the Eagles best receiver. Rookie QB Carson Wentz has been really good so far. The Lions defense is nothing special. Matthews should be solid this week. |
| PIT | Antonio Brown | NYJ | Buster Skrine | Brown is matchup proof. He will eat this week just as he typically does. |
| SD | Travis Benjamin | OAK | Sean Smith | Benjamin is in play as a WR3 this week against a weak Oakland secondary. He continues to be targeted and has produced fairly well so far this season. Start him at worst as a flex. |
| SF | Torrey Smith | ARI | Brandon Harris | Smith remains one of the worst starting WR plays in all of fantasy football. Against an excellent Arizona secondary Smith should struggle even more. |
| TB | Vincent Jackson | CAR | Bene Benwikere | Jackson has been just awful this season. Luckily for him though he is taking on a secondary that was just absolutely torched by the Falcons last week, which could potentially help his case in Week 5. Still though, Jackson is not a safe play. |
| TEN | Andre Johnson | MIA | Xavien Howard | Johnson reportedly is now the starter in place of Rishard Matthews, which bodes well for his fantasy prospects. Priced incredibly low for the likes of a starting WR, Johnson may be an excellent bargain play in Week 5, especially considering how badly the Dolphins secondary looked last week. |
| WAS | Pierre Garcon | BAL | Jimmy Smith | While highly targeted, Garçon just isn't a fantasy worthy receiver. He has zero touchdown upside and doesn't catch a high percentage of his targets. |
| Off | Right WR | Def | Left CB | Analysis |
| ARI | Michael Floyd | SF | Tramaine Brock | Floyd has yet to get on track this season and losing Carson Palmer likely doesn't help his chances going forward. Brock is no Deion Sanders, but Floyd isn't likely to abuse him either. Stay away if possible. |
| ATL | Mohamed Sanu | DEN | Aqib Talib | The Broncos feature an all time great defense and secondary and Sanu is playing through an injury. I don't like his chances here. |
| BAL | Mike Wallace | WAS | Bashaud Breeland | Despite his three touchdowns this season, make no mistake, Wallace is the guy who we have always known him to be. He is a deep threat with average route running skills and shoddy hands. Having said that, Bashaud Breeland has been a punching bag opposite Josh Norman this season, so if he draws that matchup, Wallace may be an attractive play at the right price. |
| BUF | Robert Woods | LA | Trumaine Johnson | Woods is currently the no. 1 option in this Bills aerial attack. Johnson is more talented and should win this matchup, but considering the targets that Woods is likely to see, he may be worth a flex flyer pick. |
| CAR | Ted Ginn Jr. | TB | Brent Grimes | Ginn is a bum. |
| CHI | Eddie Royal | IND | Patrick Robinson | Royal has been bumped up to the starting WR opposite Alshon Jeffery in the wake of the season injury to Kevin White. Royal was a one time WR2 in fantasy leagues, but that is no longer. Having said that, he produced very well last week and is worth a flex look once again while facing a weak Indy secondary. |
| CIN | Brandon LaFell | DAL | Brandon Carr | I have gone on record several times stating that I loathe LaFell. Combine that with how well this Dallas secondary has been this season and you’ve got yourself a punt play here. |
| CLE | Terrelle Pryor | NE | Malcolm Butler | Pryor is just about the only playmaker the Browns have. He should see plenty of targets and will get almost all of the looks around the end zone if they can't find a way to get Gary Barnidge involved. Despite the Patriots defensive prowess, I doubt that they will focus to take away Pryor completely, which should allow him to get his despite the likelihood of a Browns loss. |
| DAL | Terrance Williams | CIN | Dre Kirkpatrick | Williams caught a TD last week, but looked inferior to Brice Butler. If Dez plays, Williams will be an afterthought, but if he doesn’t, T-Will should play as a flex option even against a good Cincy defense. |
| DEN | Emmanuel Sanders | ATL | Desmond Trufant | Sanders was great last week in PPR formats and has been particularly hot over the past two outings. He will face a great corner in Trufant, but when he's in the slot or in motion, he should still get his yards, targets, and even touchdowns. Play him confidently. |
| DET | Marvin Jones | PHI | Nolan Carroll | Jones continues to produce as the clear-cut WR1 out in Detriot. He is currently coming off of a foot issue, but reports are that he should have no issue with it on Sunday. Play him with confidence going forward. |
| GB | Randall Cobb | NYG | Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie | Cobb is looking to get his game back on track against a banged up Giants secondary. With awful safety play last week, Cobb may have himself a field day if New York can't get their secondary back healthy. |
| HOU | Will Fuller | MIN | Terence Newman | Fuller has been one of the league's breakout performers this season and while he is facing a really tough matchup in the Vikings defense on Sunday, he should still have a chance to win over the top a couple of times. He is – as always – a high risk, high reward play in all formats. |
| IND | T.Y. Hilton | CHI | Tracy Porter | Hilton has been one of the most targeted and more productive WR's over the last couple of weeks. He draws a favorable matchup against the Bears mediocre defense on Sunday at home in the dome, so start him with confidence in Week 5. |
| LA | Tavon Austin | BUF | Stephon Gilmore | Austin struggles to make plays past the line of scrimmage as a receiver. Rex Ryan knows this and will make his physical corners play even more aggressively on Sunday night. Austin – as always – remains a risky play. |
| MIA | Kenny Stills | TEN | Perrish Cox | Stills is a player whom I would never like to own. He runs okay routes, but he has questionable hands and operates out of a weak offense. |
| MIN | Charles Johnson | HOU | Kareem Jackson | Johnson made a nice play last Monday night, however that was against a terribly banged up Giants secondary. He should come back down to earth on Sunday. |
| NE | Julian Edelman | CLE | Joe Haden | I love Edelman this week with an angry Brady making his triumphant return. He should matchup well against any Browns CB. |
| NYG | Sterling Shepard | GB | Damarious Randall | Shepard has been impressive so far this season and I would expect him to continue to produce against a mediocre Packers defense on Sunday night. |
| NYJ | Eric Decker | PIT | William Gay | Decker is still questionable and will make his decision on whether he will play or not on Friday afternoon. Until then consider Quincy Enunwa the starter opposite Brandon Marshall with a reasonable matchup against William Gay. Either should perform solidly facing this average at best Pittsburgh secondary. |
| OAK | Amari Cooper | SD | Brandon Flowers | Cooper has still yet to get into the end zone and is currently quietly serving as the Raiders WR2. Flowers isn't the CB that he once was, but he still poses a threat. Even so though, I like Cooper's talent too much to bench him, so give him WR3 status on Sunday. |
| PHI | Nelson Agholor | DET | Darius Slay | Agholor draws Slay this week – an underrated man-cover corner in this league. He has come on a little this season with a competent QB at the helm, but I don't love his matchup this week. |
| PIT | Markus Wheaton | NYJ | Darrelle Revis | Wheaton hasn't been healthy and is losing reps to Sammy Coates currently. The Jets defense should limit the time that Big Ben has to throw, so plays over the top will likely be limited. |
| SD | Dontrelle Inman | OAK | David Amerson | Inmann finally broke out last week and looks to have reasserted himself as the WR2 in this Chargers offense. As of now, his targets and production from last week indicate that he is going to play better than Tyrell Williams. |
| SF | Aaron Burbridge | ARI | Patrick Peterson | Good joke. |
| TB | Mike Evans | CAR | James Bradberry | I love this matchup this week. I know that I constantly gush over Evans, but considering what Julio just did to this secondary last week, imagine what big no. 13 can do with all of the forced targets that Jameis throws his way? |
| TEN | Tajae Sharpe | MIA | Byron Maxwell | Sharpe's production has gone down significantly each week, to the point that he has become potentially droppable. I like to believe that he has faced some really tough matchups so far this season, but still he is too risky to start. If you feel so inclined though, the Titans are taking on a defense that was just torched for massive numbers by A.J. Green last week. |
| WAS | DeSean Jackson | BAL | Shareece Wright | I sound like a broken record in regards to Jackson, but I always find him to be a high risk, high reward fantasy play. Wright really struggled against Michael Crabtree last week, if that changes your mind, but it doesn’t for me… Start him at your own risk (or reward). |
Nostra-Dom-Us Predicts
ELITE PLAYS
Odell Beckham ($8,500 on DraftKings) vs. Quinten Rollins
I have been saying for some time now that I think that this is the game where ODB really finds his footing for 2016. Up until now, he has been lampooned and crucified by both the mainstream and social media, but with more properly channeled emotions this week, he should eat the Packers weak secondary alive. Consider him cheap at $8,500 (DraftKings) this week.
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Mike Evans ($7,500 on DraftKings) vs. James Bradberry
I’m trying to ride the coat tails of Julio Jones here, as I see Evans potentially torching the Panthers secondary as well. He may not go for 300 yards, but with all of the targets that Jameis throws his way, he should have every opportunity to go off.
AFFORDABLE PLAYS
Randall Cobb ($6,200 on DraftKings) vs. Giants defensive back TBD
I said above that this is the perfect matchup for Cobb to get his game on track this season. Up until now he has really struggled, however Cobb should easily have his way with this banged up Giants secondary. Expect PPR production and maybe a touchdown out of Cobb on Sunday night.
John Brown ($4,400 on DraftKings) vs. 49ers Slot DB’s
Brown is coming off of a monster performance – 10 receptions, on a whopping 16 targets, for 144 yards – and yet is still only priced at $4,400 on DraftKings. This must be a misprint, as the Cardinals are taking on an average 49ers secondary, who allowed 66 yards to Cole Beasley (Dallas’ slot receiver) last week. Brown should play at a nice value this week.
BARGAIN PLAYS
Robert Woods ($3,900 on DraftKings) vs. Trumaine Johnson
Woods is the Bills number one target and played well last week being treated as such for the first time really all season long. His price tag is hysterical, especially when considering the Rams struggles against opposing wideouts this season.
Andre Johnson ($3,200 on DraftKings) vs. Xavien Howard
Johnson reportedly just earned the starting job from Rishard Matthews, so his price tag is a glitch that should only last the week. Jump on him now considering he is matching up against a rookie corner who just allowed 10 catches, for 173 yards, and a touchdown against A.J. Green last Thursday.