In 2016 the argument can be made that there are no such things as “sleepers” in fantasy football anymore. These ancient creatures once roamed the earth when we all used notebook and pens to keep track of our teams scoring and drafted from the back room of the local bar. With all of the information at our disposal these days there probably aren’t any players that qualify as true sleepers.
Fantasy players are more informed and educated than ever. We consume more games than ever. We read the detailed box scores for every game. We have analytics such as average depth per target, yards after contact and first read percentage. Fantasy players watch the combine coverage, bookmark free agent trackers and DVR all 30 hours of draft coverage. The bottom line is that we know these players. The days of Orlandis Gary, Kurt Warner and Samkon Gago catapulting from virtual unknowns to fantasy superstars are over.
Instead, the construction of a “sleeper” by today’s definition revolves more around how much confidence and support you are willing to put behind a specific player. Are you willing to put your balls on the line in saying this guy is going to return “X” value? Are you willing to stake your reputation on taking a player five rounds before his ADP suggests that you should just to ensure that you get him? Because to me, that is a sleeper.
I could sit here all day and list dozens of players who will return a higher value than is expected in 2016. But what does that really do for you? Will it help you take a leap of faith on a player? I doubt it. Will it help you win your league? No flipping way.
So how about we take our pants down and start calling some shots here. I’ve got a group of players that range from the slightly obvious to the unheard of that I have good reasons to believe will break out this season.
Should you take these guys in the first couple of rounds? No you zipper head. These are guys that you should target in the middle to late rounds.
Here is my list of Fantasy Football Sleepers for 2016:
QUARTERBACKS
Joe Flacco, Baltimore Ravens
No, Joe Flacco did not die in a car accident this offseason. That was an awful Twitter hoax that reminded us all of how atrocious social media can be at times. He did however suffer a torn ACL that ended his season after just ten games.
The Ravens loaded up on receivers for Flacco this offseason. The brought Steve Smith back, drafted Chris Moore and Keenan Reynolds to compete as slot receivers, signed TE Ben Watson and drafted pass catching RB Kenneth Dixon. Add to that a healthy Justin Forsett, Breshad Perriman and Dennis Pitta and you have a wealth of talent to catch the football. Flacco has this thing about him that is like a switch. When its flipped he becomes absolutely unstoppable.
When you force a 31-year-old QB to rehab every single day they have a tendency to get in great shape. All of this along with Marc Trestman’s offense that ranked first in pass attempts and eighth in passing yards last year despite a hodgepodge mix of backup QB’s and you have a recipe for a lot of fantasy points.
Brock Osweiler, Houston Texans
Let me be clear. I like Brock Osweiler a lot. I believe he has had the absolute perfect training regimen to become a real star QB in this league. He’s big, strong and athletic. He had the opportunity to watch one of the greatest and hardworking players ever in Peyton Manning for four seasons. He’s already been to two Super Bowls and has a ring. Yet, the taste he had of success last year and the agony of having the job ripped from him is a fire that won’t be extinguished until he wins a title all of his own.
The Texans have brought Osweiler into an already made situation. Their defense is already among the best in the NFL and he has one of the best wide receivers in place in DeAndre Hopkins. Head coach Bill O’Brien has an outstanding track record of developing QB’s and running a system that is very fantasy friendly.
The team also brought in RB Lamar Miller to help take the pressure off of Osweiler which gives the offense a dimension they have been without since Arian Foster was in his prime. This kid could have a top ten fantasy season and he won’t cost you any more than a late round pick.
Colin Kaepernick, San Francisco 49ers
No, this isn’t a misprint. You see, one of the things I pride myself in the most is the ability to identify talent and understand how it fits within any given scheme or system. I was never a big Kaepernick fan under Jim Harbaugh and I downright HATED him last year with the buffoon Jim Tomsula calling the shots.
But Chip Kelly is a different animal. His offense is very up tempo. His Eagles teams have led the league in pace each of the past three seasons. It isn’t a complicated style of offense at all. It is just aggressive in always keeping the defense on its heels which plays right into what Kaepernick does best. Few huddles, simple terminology, read and react passing are all things that allow a skilled athlete like Kaepernick do great things at the position. If Kelly does give Kaepernick a shot to start that means he’ll employ read-option which is something I have been screaming about for the 49ers to utilize more over the past two seasons.
Right now it appears as though Blaine Gabbert is going to get the first crack at starting for the 49ers. But I just cannot ignore what could be here in San Francisco if this system and a confident Colin Kaepernick ever got together.
RUNNING BACKS
Ryan Mathews, Philadelphia Eagles
My entire fantasy season might be defined on how Mathews and the Eagles offense produces. Please understand though that I hate Ryan Mathews as much as anybody. The problem is that he’s in a system that has done nothing but produce top 10 fantasy seasons no matter who the lead RB is. Remember names such as Duce Staley, Brian Westbrook and LeSean McCoy? How about Jamaal Charles, Knile Davis (in 2014), Charcandrick West (2015) and Spencer Ware (2015)? Well none of them were household names until they took over as the primary ball carrier in this system.
To be clear, new Eagles head coach Doug Pederson is a former backup QB to Brett Favre in Green Bay before becoming Andy Reid’s temporary starter for nine games until Donovan McNabb took over. Pederson has been on Reid’s coach staff first in Philadelphia then in Kansas City for each of the past five seasons. He will run the same west coast based system that Reid ran in his days in Philly and thus Mathews will be the centerpiece now that DeMarco Murray is gone.
As if you needed more reasons to feel good about Mathews, the new Eagles offensive coordinator is Frank Reich. Reich was an assistant for the Chargers in 2013 when Ken Whisenhunt was the offensive coordinator which just so happened to be Mathews best season to date. He rushed for 1,255 yards and caught 26-179 with seven total touchdowns that year. If you don’t think Mathews will stay healthy this season, and I personally do not think that he will, just handcuff him to Wendell Smallwood or Kenjon Barner whoever wins the backup job and you are good to go.
Duke Johnson, Cleveland Browns
I despised Duke Johnson last year. But a new running back friendly head coach and scheme in Hue Jackson has me feeling him for 2016. He caught 61 passes last year in a very pass happy system that found him sharing snaps with three or four RB’s per game. While he will likely split carries again this year, the status of Isaiah Crowell going forward leaves nothing but more touches in the path of Duke.
Young running backs that didn’t have a lot of work in their rookie season always intrigue me. This year sets up as one in which Johnson could wind up being among the league leaders in touches simply because of the volume of the offense and lack of other options in Cleveland.
Kenyan Drake, Miami Dolphins
Those of you who are assuming that Jay Ajayi is going to just become the Dolphins starting running back are sadly mistaken. Now, that could happen but this competition is not only very even, it actually favors Drake more than Ajayi.
You see, Ajayi was a fifth round pick last year by a coaching staff and front office that is no longer in place. Thus, the Dolphins have absolutely nothing invested in him whatsoever. Whereas with Kenyan Drake, they took him two rounds earlier than the previous regime selected Ajayi. Drake is the pass catching threat that fits offensive coordinator Clyde Christensen’s system perfectly.
Ajayi did absolutely nothing last season to warrant the idea that he will simply assume the Dolphins lead RB role. Let the rest of your league make terrible assumptions on guys like Ajayi and Matt Jones while you sit back and take the talented runners that have an attachment to the primary role already set up.
Jordan Howard, Chicago Bears
Out of all of the rookie RB’s that landed in a competitive spot for a job, I like Howard the least. But that is just as a stand along player. He’s not bad mind you just slow and injury prone. But he is a good between the tackles runner that could excel as a short yardage back in this league.
The thing that puts Howard on the sleeper radar is that he is in line for a major role in this Chicago backfield. Jeremy Langford showed well early last year but faded terribly and the coaching staff took notice. John Fox has always believed in a split carry backfield and thus this won’t be a tremendous situation for either RB. But Howard is well positioned for a big role with a lot of touches including those closer to the goal line which makes fantasy owners salivate.
Keith Marshall, Washington Redskins
Few people realize that Marshall was destined to be the starting RB of the Georgia Bulldogs ahead of Todd Gurley before he tore his right ACL and Gurley became a superstar. Marshall was an all-state track star and top recruit out of high school in North Carolina. He spent most of two years recovering from the ACL tear but had a strong finish last year for the Bulldogs rushing for over five yards per carry.
Marshall is fully recovered from the injuries though as evidenced by his 4.31 time in the 40-yard dash at the NFL Combine. His time was the fastest of any player. Marshall is a big play threat any time he has the ball and that is a much needed element in this Redskins offense.
Matt Jones will start out as the lead RB here in Washington. But he was unable to hang onto the football throughout his rookie season and also suffered from drops and poor pass protection. He is far from a sure thing to be a fantasy impact player giving Marshall the daylight that he needs.
WIDE RECEIVERS
DeVante Parker, Miami Dolphins
Parker is likely to make many fantasy analysts sleeper lists this year and for good reason. He never really got on track during his rookie campaign due to a lingering foot injury that we are told is in the rear view mirror at this point.
At 6’3” he is the big bodied receiver that Ryan Tannehill has never really had. New head coach Adam Gase has a track record of getting QB’s to play more efficiently and if he can do that with Tannehill the entire offense will thrive.
Marvin Jones, Detroit Lions
I’ve always been a fan of Marvin Jones. He is big, strong, fast and has great hands and body control. He has been an absolute weapon for the Bengals over the last three seasons especially in the red zone. I have absolutely no doubts that he will be the Lions primary red zone target and TD hawk.
The Lions have 90 catches, 1200 yards and 10 TD’s to replace from Calvin Johnson alone. Many are assuming that Golden Tate will take over a lot of the production but I am positive that will not happen. Given where you have to take both Tate and Jones, I strongly prefer waiting a bit and grabbing Jones to plug in as your WR3 to begin the season. He has the upside to reach double digit TD’s in 2016 and thus become a fringe WR1 if all breaks right.
Torrey Smith, San Francisco 49ers
Another player that I have never been a fan of in the past but who finds himself in a great situation this year. It isn’t so much that Smith fits the offense as it is that he’s the only viable receiving option in San Francisco.
Chip Kelly’s offense has produced some fantastic fantasy numbers from the primary receiver over the years. Last year Jordan Matthews racked up 85-997-8. In 2014 Jeremy Maclin went for 85-1318-10 and in 2013 DeSean Jackson tallied 82-1332-9. The rest of the receivers pretty much were zeroes for fantasy purposes so it will all be on the back of Smith in 2016.
Michael Thomas, New Orleans Saints
The Saints were in need of a big bodied receiver to take the place of Marques Colston and help Drew Brees around the red zone where he likes to throw the ball up for his target to make a play on it. You would have thought that I learned my lesson last year having both Josh Hill and Brandon Coleman on my sleeper list but I am going back to the well once again.
The Saints throw the ball more than any other team in the NFL over the last five seasons and that trend will continue in 2016. With Brandin Cooks and Willie Snead handling most of the possession receiving that will leave Thomas available in single coverage to be the primary TD recipient.
Mohamed Sanu, Atlanta Falcons
Sanu is the kind of shrewd late round pick that could really help your team. While I do not expect him to be an every week starting WR, I do think that he is the perfect bye week replacement that will help you win your matchup.
Last year Leonard Hankerson and Jacob Tamme alternated in being the “X” receiver opposite Julio Jones. Hankerson averaged eight targets, four receptions and 55 yards per game while scoring three TD’s. Once he was cut, Tamme stepped in and was able to post a similar average of eight targets, four receptions, 51 yards and one TD over the last six games.
Brice Butler, Dallas Cowboys
As some of you already know, I am a Brice Butler mark. I was wowed by him in the preseason with the Oakland Raiders a few years ago and have followed him ever since. When the Cowboys traded for him after Dez Bryant went down last year it confirmed my opinion that this kid has the goods to be a high level wide receiver.
Now once again, you shouldn’t be drafting Butler in anything but the largest of fantasy leagues. But if he again shows well in camp, there is an opportunity for him to be the Cowboys secondary option opposite Dez Bryant this year. That means a lot of single coverage which Butler can exploit with his physical assets.
Ricardo Louis, Cleveland Browns
I didn’t like a lot of the Browns WR choices in the draft this year but they sure did hit the jackpot with Louis. While I can’t say that you should draft him in anything other than large or extremely deep leagues, he is a guy that you should monitor throughout training camp and the preseason.
Louis tore up the NFL Combine this year ranking in the top five in the 40-yard dash, bench press, vertical leap and long jump. The Browns will be playing from behind plenty in 2016 and thus their receivers should be able to wiggle into fantasy relevance.
TIGHT ENDS
Coby Fleener, New Orleans Saints
Fleener will be on almost everybody’s TE sleeper list but I figured that I should include even the obvious choice here as well. The Saints are in desperate need of a pass catcher who can go up and get the ball when it is thrown up for grabs. Fleener and Michael Thomas are the two likely candidates to assume those duties for Drew Brees and company.
Dwayne Allen, Indianapolis Colts
Quick quiz: what do Antonio Gates, Jeremy Shockey, Jordan Cameron, Kellen Winslow and Greg Olsen have in common? The answer is that each of their best seasons have come while Rob Chudzinski was calling plays for them.
The Colts hired Chuszinski as their offensive coordinator and then allowed Coby Fleener to walk in free agency while investing four years and $29 million in Dwayne Allen. Things literally could not set up any better for Allen as he will be the benefactor of a healthy Andrew Luck and the highest first read to TE offense in the NFL.
Kyle Rudolph, Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings gave Rudolph a huge contract before last season paying him $36 million in the process. Last season he was forced to stay in and block far more often than the team had initially wanted. But Rudolph did a good job in protecting QB Teddy Bridgewater and thus he rarely leaves the field.
This year he will be running more routes and should be able to post some real big fantasy numbers as a result. Rudolph could wind up being a top five fantasy TE in 2016.
Zach Miller, Chicago Bears
Miller is a very good pass catcher who has never been able to stay healthy. This season he finds himself as the lone starting TE on a Bears team that loves to target the TE in the passing game. Jay Cutler will frequently target the TE in the endzone when inside the ten yard line. Miller can be a top 10 fantasy TE if things all go his way this season.