Well, here we are. It’s the final week of the NFL season, which means that this is the final edition of this Tough Decisions article. If this final week is your championship week, I wish you the best! If you’re just playing for points or consolation bragging rights, I wish you luck as well. You can reach me @colbyrconway on Twitter and I will see you for the upcoming fantasy baseball season!
Let's take a look at the TOUGH DECISIONS for Week 17:
QUARTERBACKS
Jameis Winston (vs. CAR) or Philip Rivers (vs. KC)
The Case for Winston: Winston has five interceptions over his last two games, compared to four touchdown tosses. He hasn’t been playing the best football of late, and his first matchup with Carolina wasn’t all that exciting either. However, with Mike Evans at his disposal and a matchup with a Carolina defense that has allowed 26 touchdown passes on the season, there is plenty of optimism for Winston for those in Week 17 championship tilts. He did lose Cameron Brate, who was a viable red zone threat, but he does have other weapons to attack this suspect Carolina defense. Winston is just three passing touchdowns away from 30 on the season, and I see no reason why Tampa Bay doesn’t let him chase that 30 touchdown plateau. He does have QB1 upside in championship week.
The Case for Rivers: Rivers surely has his work cut out for him this week. Not only has he turned the ball over quite a bit this season, but he’s been good for an interception in his past six games. Unlike quite a few teams in Week 17, Rivers is facing a motivated team that still has something rather important for which to play. Unless I’m wrong, which I’m probably not, Kansas City wants a first round bye, and beating San Diego is the first step to achieving that goal. The Chiefs haven’t allowed a passing touchdown in three straight games and if you ask me, Rivers will have more interceptions than touchdowns by the end of this game.
The Verdict: Winston. I just hate Rivers’ matchup this final week.
RUNNING BACKS
Todd Gurley (vs. ARI) or Latavius Murray (@DEN)
The Case for Gurley: Gurley isn’t a bad running back by any means, but he certainly hasn’t produced like many thought he would at the beginning of the season. He faces a Cardinals defense that held him to 33 yards on 19 carries in their first meeting, and having Jared Goff under center hasn’t done Gurley any favors. If you’re still holding out for RB1 numbers from Gurley, it’s likely that you didn’t do too well this fantasy season. Consider him an RB3 and hope for around 60 rushing yards with a touchdown. Yeah, that’s best-case scenario in my eyes.
The Case for Murray: Last time these two faced off, Murray received 20 carries and ran for 114 yards with three touchdowns. Murray struggled last week, but without Derek Carr, it’s going to be on the run game to attack this stout Denver defense. Matt McGloin will be under center and Murray should be in line for a large workload. DeAndre Washington and Jalen Richard will be involved as well, but this could be a game where Oakland rushes it more than they have in any game this season. To make things easy on McGloin in his first 2016 start, he’s going to do a lot of handing off to Murray, as well as short, high-percentage passes. Murray is a low-end RB2 for me.
The Verdict: Gurley. Murray won’t have that same success he did last time out, and even though I’m not high on Gurley this week either, I do think he outscores Murray.
THE FLEX CONUNDRUM
Alfred Blue (@TEN) or Adam Thielen (vs. CHI)
The Case for Blue: Blue is going to get plenty of work, so volume isn’t the issue. I just don’t think Blue is that good. Yes, I’m a Houston Texans fan and even I’m not a huge fan of what Blue brings to the table. Sure, he’s put up some good fantasy games here and there but he needs a large workload to reach that heralded area. Last week, against a rather poor Cincinnati run defense, he averaged just 1.14 yards after the first contact per carry, which essentially means all he did was fall forward the instant he got hit. He isn’t elusive and he’s going to struggle against this stout Tennessee run defense. The Titans are allowing the fourth-fewest points per game to opposing backs, so Blue makes for more of a RB3 in Week 17.
The Case for Thielen: Thielen went absolutely bonkers last week against a reeling Green Bay secondary. He registered new season-highs in receptions (12), yards (202) and touchdowns (2) in a game. He gets another plus matchup against a Chicago secondary that has next to no playmakers. Chicago is beat up and even when healthy, the secondary isn’t that good. Only five teams have allowed more fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers than Chicago and Thielen’s big play ability helps his case in Week 17. Stefon Diggs will likely work the short game, while Thielen will be responsible for stretching the field and serving as a prominent vertical threat. It will be hard for Thielen to replicate last week’s numbers, but there’s no reason he can’t go for over 100 yards with a score this week.
The Verdict: Thielen. I’m a sucker for big-play upside and Blue doesn’t bring that to the table.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Tyrell Williams (vs. KC) or Allen Robinson (@IND)
The Case for Williams: It’s going to be a tough day for quarterback Philip Rivers, so Williams’ numbers will likely suffer. However, despite the ball hawking ways of the Chiefs, they are susceptible to a deep ball here and there. Believe it or not, the Chiefs have allowed the 13th-most fantasy points per game to opposing receivers, but a lot of that was due to struggles early on. They’ve been much better of late, just re-read the Philip Rivers paragraph above. Williams needs just 11 receiving yards for 1,000 on the year and I expect Rivers to look to Williams often to move the chains. He’s a low-end WR2 in Week 17.
The Case for Robinson: Hey, Allen Robinson! Thanks for FINALLY showing up! After the first 10 weeks of the season, Robinson had only four double-digit fantasy days. Four. FOUR. Well, his outburst last week was his first double-digit outing since going for 9-107-1 in Week 10 against the Texans. If you’re playing for something meaningful in Week 17 and you have Allen Robinson, pat yourself on the back. He’s been unproductive for most of the season, mainly due to Blake Bortles’ regression in 2016. Indy’s Vontae Davis is an above-average cornerback, but the Colts rank third-to-last in pass coverage, according to PFF. Robinson has an excellent opportunity to repeat his numbers from last week. Please, Blake Bortles, don’t screw us over!
The Verdict: Robinson. Come on baby, two weeks in a row!
TIGHT ENDS
Dennis Pitta (@CIN) or Eric Ebron (vs. GB)
The Case for Pitta: Pitta has eight or more receptions in two of his last four games, but the problem is that he had just four and two receptions in the other two contests. To be frank, he simply isn’t a big play guy at the position. He needs to have the volume to be effective for his fantasy owners. Sure, he has the fourth most targets and third most receptions at his position, but there are 25 tight ends who have more fantasy points than Pitta. He doesn’t find the end zone and he really doesn’t stretch the field. In terms of fantasy appeal for Week 17, Pitta does have a favorable matchup, but his limited upside really knocks him down.
The Case for Ebron: Ebron has four or more receptions (8-93 last week) over the past four weeks and he continues to be heavily involved in the Detroit passing attack. Over the past month, he comes in at fifth among all tight ends in both receptions and targets. Ebron doesn’t score that often, let alone at all really, but his role in the offense continues to keep his fantasy value afloat. The Packers have allowed the 12th-most fantasy points per game this season to tight ends, so if there is ever a time to play Ebron, it’s this Sunday.
The Verdict: Ebron. I’m all in on this week, so fingers are certainly crossed!