Fools Gold

After posting production just above the fantasy poverty line for the first five weeks of the season, Lamar Miller has erupted over these past two weeks, going for a combined 288 rushing yards and two touchdowns on a mere 33 carries. Now, before you go rush to your computers and start buying all of the Miller stock you can find, understand that there is more to this story than just a jacked up new coach yelling “ra-ra” speeches at the hog mollies up front.

Yes, it is a fair assessment to believe that Dan Campbell’s coup of the Iron Throne in South Beach ignited a talented team that was completely uninspired previously by now guillotined head coach, Joe Philbin, but what speaks more to the individual break out of Miller is far less exciting. The secret factor – level of competition.

There is no denying Campbell has done something to shake up the culture in Miami over these past two weeks, but consider it more of a coincidence than a cause and effect that Miller has been dominating just as Campbell took over. In Weeks 6 and 7 the Dolphins have thrashed first the Titans and then the Texans. What do both opponents have in common? Paltry run defenses. In fact, both teams measure out in the bottom five of the league in terms of total rushing yards allowed, with the Texans coming in at 27th and the Titans grading out at 29th overall.

Miller claims his recent success is simply due to a larger role in the offense and more touches, but that sounds a bit conceded. His line is doing some solid work against less-than solid opponents. Expect a wake up call for the surging Dolphins on Thursday night, as they take on the undefeated Patriots and a front seven who allowed a mere 3.1 yards per carry last week against a really good Jets rushing attack that currently ranks seventh in the league in total ground yards and second amongst teams that have already had their bye week.  

Good News/Bad News

So do you want the good news or the bad news first? Well, I always like to get the bad stuff out of the way first, so here it is…

My apologies on how dead wrong I was about the Cowboys backfield last Sunday against the Giants. I got some poor info from some very respected people on the matter, and I looked pretty foolish when Darren McFadden – a guy who I basically considered droppable headed into last week – ran for 152 yards and a touchdown, while my sleeper guy, Christine Michael, was outrushed by a wide receiver named Lucky Whitehead. So again, to all of my readers, my bad on that one.

Now, for the good news… Last Sunday afternoon – as predicted in my “Nostra-DOM-us” section in my previous column – Todd Gurley gashed the Browns defense for 128 rushing yards and two touchdowns on 19 carries, while he also hauled in four catches for 35 yards. Because of my first time success (beginner's luck?) I plan on continuing my prediction segment going forward, so long as I can keep guessing correctly. Of course if it doesn’t work out, I’ll just pretend it never existed.

Nostra-DOM-us

As for my aforementioned prophetic segment, I have to pile on the Browns here again. I hate to do it, but it’s pretty clear that Chris Johnson is poised for a big week in Cleveland this upcoming Sunday. As stated in last week’s edition, the Browns are terribly weak on the defensive front, ranking dead last in the NFL against the run. They allow 150-plus rushing yards per game, giving me the inkling that Johnson – currently second in the NFL in rushing – is poised for a big day. Give me the better team, with a hot running back, talented offensive line, and attacking defense vs. arguably the worst defensive unit in the NFL any day. Johnson is incredibly affordable at only $4,600 on DraftKings and $7,400 on FanDuel.

Going out on a limb here with a second prediction this week, as I see something in the works for the Jets–Raiders game (or lack thereof). In a 4:00 PM ET matchup on Sunday afternoon, a rare occasion is laid out in the schedule for Week 8. The New York Jets – the NFL’s top-ranked rush defense – will be taking on the Oakland Raiders ­– the NFL’s second-ranked rush defense. Considering this, I cannot, with a good conscious, endorse any of the team’s running backs in fantasy formats, despite featuring talented runners in both Chris Ivory and Latavius Murray. I expect both teams to finish with less than 100 rushing yards, likely leaving unexpecting fantasy owners disappointed. Consider yourself warned.

PPR Bonus

I know that I’ve highlighted him in previous editions, but consider this more of a “Where are they now?” piece.

Duke Johnson of the Cleveland Browns came into his rookie season this year expected to contribute on a relatively high level. He didn’t do much in his first couple weeks, but since Week 3, no other NFL running back has as many receptions as he does. Johnson has truly turned into a PPR machine, developing into a perfect flex option in most DraftKings contests. It might be tough sledding for him headed into Week 8, as the Browns take on the Cardinals and their tough defensive unit, but it could also go the other way in that he might serve as an often targeted check-down option for whomever is under center and under duress for the Browns this week.