Let’s play a game. What do the following men all have in common: Ray Rice, Chris Johnson, Roddy White, Michael Vick, Darren McFadden, Maurice Jones-Drew, Steven Jackson, Greg Jennings and Rashard Mendenhall? The answer is that all of these players were elite, top-25 draft day selections just four years ago.

If you think my look into history’s failures was a one season affair, then let’s look at 2012. The following players were top-25 selections: Ray Rice, Darren McFadden, Maurice Jones-Drew, Fred Jackson, Ryan Mathews, Larry Fitzgerald and Doug Martin. Are you building any of your fantasy squads around those guys?

Surely there hasn’t been that much change in two years, right? The following were top-25 selections in 2013: Doug Martin, C.J. Spiller, Ray Rice, Trent Richardson, Alfred Morris, Chris Johnson, David Wilson, Stevan Ridley, MJD, Drew Brees, Reggie Bush, Brandon Marshall and Frank Gore

Are you getting it yet?

Recall that we’re talking about the top 25 players taken in redraft leagues, so it’s not a direct fit to a dynasty league. However, isn’t a top-25 redraft pick also an elite dynasty option? If you want to go young, then here is a random sampling of some of the elite dynasty selections prior to the 2013 football season:

Giovani Bernard – he has ten career scores and now he’s the Bengals number two rusher behind Jeremy Hill.

DeAndre Hopkins – he was solid as a rookie before blowing up in year two (76-1,210-6). A superstar in the making.

Tavon Austin – he has been a disaster given the hype. Through two seasons he has 71 receptions for 660 yards and four touchdowns.

Eddie Lacy – he has been a star with 2,317 yards and 20 touchdowns in two years.

Justin Hunter – he has been an unmitigated disaster with only 46 receptions, 852 yards and seven touchdowns through two years. He isn’t even looking like a starter in year three.

Cordarrelle Patterson – he is a stupendous athlete but a poor football player. He’s continually struggled with the playbook and route running. He dropped to 33 receptions and one touchdown in year two.

Montee Ball – he was drafted in 2013 to be a star in the Broncos backfield. That year Knowshon Moreno led the team in rushing and in 2014 it was C.J. Anderson. Ball has been a mess.

Le’Veon Bell – he has been an outright superstar, especially in PPR leagues. However, his looming suspension to start 2015 does dim his short-term outlook a bit.

Markus Wheaton – he was supposed to replace Mike Wallace after he left the Steelers. Oops. Martavis Bryant did that and then the Steelers went out and drafted another receiver in Sammie Coates.

Kennan Allen – he has become a very good football player and a clutch option for the Chargers.

Even the best top-10 fantasy prospects from 2013 have struggled to live up to expectations, so how do you plan a dynasty squad given the minefield we’ve been discussing? Here are some quick tips.

(1) Rostering a solid quarterback can be key. Their time horizon for success can be double or triple the length of skill position players.

(2) Build depth and be very careful when dealing it. Just because you have four running backs you love in 2015 doesn’t mean you can deal one because that may not leave you three you love in 2016.

(3) Speaking of that, build depth at running back. Gone are the days of Walter Peyton and Emmitt Smith racking up non-stop 300-touch seasons over the course of a decade. If you get five years out of your star runner, you’re in great shape.

(4) Don’t be afraid to trade the hot rookie for an established player. More often than not the rookies everyone thinks will blow up do (but in a bad way).

(5) Established boring players like Frank Gore, Alfred Morris, Anquan Boldin and Vincent Jackson can still help you win. Don’t go all in with rookies while passing on players that can help you win right now.

(6) Try to look at sources that know football. There are plenty of analysts out there that know the fantasy game, but not all of them know football. Find a source such as our very own Jeff Mans who understands players, tendencies, coaching staffs and schemes. Some players are tremendously talented, but if they aren’t in the right scheme, it isn’t likely to work.