Draft Guide: 2015 Rookie Report

Let me invoke another parallel. In 2012, two freshman running backs, both selected in the first round, entered the league: Trent Richardson and Doug Martin. It wasn’t until this past April that another two would be taken in the first round, Todd Gurley and Melvin Gordon.

Six pass catchers were also picked in the first round this year. For the second year in a row, the rookie wide receiver class figures to boast several impact fantasy players. Without further ado, I present this year’s rookie class.

QUARTERBACKS

Jameis Winston, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Unlike his recent rookie predecessors, Jameis Winston has a chance to step in and be a productive signal caller from day one. Why? Well, for one, he has experience running a pro-style offense. Two, he immediately inherits one of the better receiving corps in football: Mike Evans, Vincent Jackson and Austin Sefarian-Jenkins. And three, offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter was brought in from Atlanta specifically to implement his patented vertical passing attack.

Winston’s flaws are well known: questionable decision-making (both on and off the field), poor accuracy on intermediate throws, limited mobility and Jekyll and Hyde like performances. He’ll also take snaps behind an offensive line that will once again be one of the worst in football. Even still, these are the types of obstacles that play to his strengths. He handles pressure in the pocket well, has elite arm strength and drives the ball deep down the field with amazing accuracy.

Quarterback is the deepest position in fantasy football right now, so even though the situation is nice, Winston doesn’t need to be drafted as anything more than a backup. Against poor secondaries, however, he’ll make for a great play in daily games.

Marcus Mariota, Tennessee Titans

Since the Titans selected Marcus Mariota with the second overall pick in April’s draft, they’ve made it abundantly clear that they planned to tailor the offense to his strengths. In fact, we’ve learned that the team plans to operate out of the shotgun “50 or 60 percent” of the time. This should allow for (a) a smoother transition to an immediate starter role, (b) a productive short passing game and (c) Mariota to use arguably his best asset, his legs, to make plays in space.

The downside: Mariota has little experience under center, and while reports out of camp suggest stellar pass accuracy, he lacks the elite arm strength to push the ball down field and use big-play assets on the outside, like Justin Hunter or fellow rookie Dorial Green-Beckham. There are also injury concerns, which are mostly tied to his inclination to take plays outside the pocket.

Unlike his counterpart Winston, Mariota is praised for his elite makeup; there are no questions about his leadership and off-the-field activity. He’s earned comparisons to Colin Kaepernick, but Mariota’s strong baseline of skills and makeup makes him a higher-floor option than one might think. Like Winston, he’s a QB2, but obviously has the talent to be more than that.

Other names to know: Bryce Petty (NYJ)

RUNNING BACKS

Todd Gurley, St. Louis Rams

From a skill and athleticism standpoint, Todd Gurley may be the most talented player on this list. His landing spot as a fantasy prospect, however, couldn’t be worse. The Rams have been one of the NFL’s most dysfunctional organizations for years and despite Jeff Fisher’s previous track record with Tennessee producing viable fantasy running backs, no Rams rusher has had a 1,000-yard rushing season since Steven Jackson in 2012.

To make matters worse, the Rams continue to trot out one of the worst offensive lines in all of football. Sure, Gurley is evasive enough to make defenders miss in the backfield, but it sure seems like anathema drafting a franchise running back behind a shaky, to put it nicely, line. The good news, of course, is Brian Shottenheimer’s questionable play calling will no longer be a factor. Gurley is in code red danger of being over-drafted this fall based on his pedigree. Don’t buy into the hype. He’s a low-end RB2 on draft day.

Melvin Gordon, San Diego Chargers

Gordon was also taken in the first round this April. At Wisconsin, Gordon excelled as Montee Ball’s heir to the backfield throne. He tallied 4,915 yards on 631 carries (7.8 YPC) and rushed for 45 TDs (29 in 2014 alone). With the departure of Ryan Matthews to Philadelphia, Gordon becomes San Diego’s lead back. Oddly enough, the offensive line he had in college is likely better than the one he’ll run behind in San Diego. Sure, injuries played a huge role in the demise of the Chargers in 2014, and, to wit, their offensive line. They’ll be healthier this year, but the line was already terrible before the injuries started piling up. Like Gurley, Gordon finds himself in a difficult situation. Chargers’ backs averaged just 3.4 yards per carry as a team. Melvin isn’t a polished pass protector and has struggled with fumbles in the past, so it’s not a lock that he retains the feature back role all season long.

T.J. Yeldon, Jacksonville Jaguars

Yeldon was the Jaguars second draft pick in the draft and, according to the Jaguars official website, he’s expected to be the Jaguars opening day starter. That’s all well and good, but there’s a huge concern with Yeldon: he’s yet to learn the art of pass protection. The Jaguars used the third overall pick of last year’s draft on quarterback Blake Bortles, so it’s hard to believe Yeldon will have a long leash if Bortles is regularly eating grass.

Still, he’s far-and-away the most talented back on the team and his lateral quickness, size and speed make him worth a flier as a low-end RB2.

Tevin Coleman, Atlanta Falcons

Atlanta selected Tevin Coleman in the second round, a one-cut, home-run-hitting back out of Indiana. Coleman was one of the few bright spots on the Hoosiers in 2014. According to NFL.com’s pre-draft report, half of Coleman’s 28 career rushing touchdowns were 43 yards or longer. He ran a 4.40 and 4.39 40-yard dash at the combine and has the size to handle a workload. The situation is murky in Atlanta and the early reports suggest it’s going to be an out-and-out competition for reps. The good news is Coleman was featured in a zone-blocking scheme at Indiana, a system new offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan will surely be implementing in Atlanta this fall. At the combine, when asked about how he fits into the zone-blocking scheme, he said “Oh, that fits a lot (sic) because I’m a guy that loves outside zone and has great vision and I love to read blocks.” He could be a back that comes off the board in the middle rounds that pays off big time.

Duke Johnson, Cleveland Browns

The Browns were one of the most frustrating backfields to have shares of last season. Three different backs had a 100 plus carry seasons, and week-to-week it was nearly impossible handicapping who of Isaiah Crowell, Terrance West or Ben Tate would receive the bulk of reps (that is until Tate was cut). Enter Duke Johnson. Enter Duke Johnson. The former Miami running back has done all the right things in OTAs and even earned a comparison to Hall of Fame tailback Thurman Thomas from the team’s running backs coach. He’s a great fit for Mike Pettine’s zone-blocking scheme and the conventional wisdom here is Crowell will emerge as the early down back, with Johnson ticketed for third down and scat back duties. With Crowell’s off the field and ball-security issues, Johnson could make for a strong flier and should see an increased workload as the season moves along.

Ameer Abdullah, Detroit Lions

With their second pick, the Lions grabbed a 5-foot-9-inch, pass-catching specialist. Sound familiar? If so, that’s because he’s slated to be the heir to the Reggie Bush/Jahvid Best role in the Lions offense. Abdullah doesn’t have the speed of the two players mentioned above, but the overall package is that of an extremely talented football player.

The concern for fantasy owners is Abdullah’s small hands, which made fumbling an issue for him during his college career at Nebraska. Still, his football IQ is off the charts and he has the best combination of size, speed, vision and quickness in the Detroit backfield, making him the most likely to step into a more featured role. He has big play ability and while he shouldn’t be drafted as anything more than an RB3 to start, there’s upside here to spare.

Other names to know: David Johnson (ARI), Jay Ajayi (MIA), David Cobb (TEN), Javorious Allen (IND)

WIDE RECIEVERS

Amari Cooper, Oakland Raiders

The number four overall pick has been lighting up OTAs and has reportedly shown himself leaps and bounds ahead of the other Raiders wide receivers (admittedly, not a high bar to clear). Still, the Raiders have a decent offensive line and decent quarterback for the first time in ages, Derek Carr attempted 599 passes in 2014 (7th highest in the entire NFL). Consider this - the released James Jones and free agent signee Andre Holmes racked up 209 targets on a team that was among the worse in football. With the running game in flux, it’s shaping up to be an air raid in Oakland meaning the stigma Raiders players generally carry could make Cooper a value pick on draft day.

Kevin White, Chicago Bears

With the departure of Brandon Marshall to free agency, the Bears needed a wide receiver to fulfill the “X” role. They went out and got Kevin White, from West Virginia, who had an insane year in the Big East in 2014 and established himself as the only legitimate, clear alternative to Amari Cooper. In fact, pre-draft reports suggest that White’s ceiling as a prospect may trump Cooper’s, in part due to his physicality. Alshon Jeffrey is likely to be the sure-handed possession receiver for Jay Cutler and the Bears and White will be expected to be the big-play guy on the outside, which means he’s likely to suffer week-to-week inconsistency, but don’t be surprised if he reels off a few massive games before the season halts to a close.

Breshard Perriman, Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens needed a speedster with the departure of Torrey Smith and boy did they get one in Breshard Perriman. At his pro day, Perriman ran 4.24 and 4.27 40s, the former of which would have been the fastest time recorded at the combine this spring. Not only does Perriman provide top-end speed, but he’s also well built at 6-foot-2-inches and 212 lbs. He’s impressed in camp, corralling in tough balls and learning the playbook quickly and is expected to begin the season as John Harbaugh’s “X” receiver. His route running and hands were seen as question marks in pre-draft discussions, but there’s no doubt that he will see tons of targets down field from Joe Flacco. His big-play upside gives him a chance to be a strong WR3 play from day one.

Nelson Agholar, Philadelphia Eagles

Agholar had a monster season at USC in 2014, grabbing 104 receptions and totaling more than 1,300 yards receiving with 14 total touchdowns (two of those were punt returns). After losing wide receiver Jeremy Maclin to free agency, the Eagles were in need of an immediate replacement, which they got in Agholar with the 20th overall pick of April’s draft. He’s not the biggest or fastest guy, but he’s quick, has good football instincts and reliable hands. Agholar profiles best as a slot receiver, although he’s been getting work on the outside as well in camp. The word on the street is the Eagles plan to use top wideout Jordan Matthews on the outside more often in 2015, which could provide a lot of work for Agholar in the middle of the field. He has advanced skills and a high-floor, especially for a rookie, which makes him an appealing WR3 target on draft day.

Other names to know: DeVante Parker (MIA), Phillip Dorsett (IND), Dorial Green-Beckham (TEN), Devin Smith (NYJ), Jaelen Strong (TEX)

TIGHT ENDS

Maxx Williams, Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens added receiving threats with each of their first two picks in this year’s draft. Williams’s 4.78 was the fastest 40-yard dash by a tight end at the combine this year and his straight-line speed figures to create havoc down the seams. He was the consensus top player at the position, but he’s not the type of athletic monster we’ve seen enter the NFL at the position in recent years.

Rookie tight ends rarely make an impact and Williams has admitted to the media that he doesn’t quite have control of the Baltimore offense. Expectations should be tempered from a fantasy perspective, especially considering how deep the position is overall.

Other names to know: Clive Walford (OAK)