When a starting quarterback goes down with an injury or is replaced due to ineffectiveness, it completely changes the nature of the offense. Too often fantasy owners want to act as if a change at quarterback isn’t going to effect the other positions on the field, which of course is completely incorrect.
We have to remember that the way an NFL practice is run is that the starters get the lion’s share of reps with one another. The backups practice with the backups, and so on and so forth. The backup quarterback will get reps with the first team on most NFL teams, but that equates to about 3-5 percent of the total practice snaps. As we discussed in our training camp strategy, how well an NFL team practices directly translates into how well they play on Sundays. The chemistry, the trust and the camaraderie that teams develop (or don’t develop) in practice shows up on the field on game day.
During the course of OTA’s, minicamps, training camp, the preseason and the regular season it is only natural that the backup quarterback develops timing and chemistry with the backup running backs, wide receivers and tight ends. In 2006, I was talking to a Broncos beat reporter midway through the season and asked him about their young quarterback Jay Cutler. At the time, Jake Plummer was the Broncos starter but Cutler was the hot, strong-armed kid who everybody knew could be big in Mike Shanahan’s offense. During the conversation about Cutler, the beat reporter kept bringing up the name Brandon Marshall. He said that Cutler and Marshall were putting on “a show” during practices so much so that Jake Plummer went to the coaching staff to have them “slow it down.” A couple weeks later, Jay Cutler replaced the struggling Jake Plummer in Week 12. I happened to notice a big, physically imposing wide receiver on the field an awful lot in that game. After a late game 71-yard touchdown strike, I learned that it was indeed this Brandon Marshall kid I had been hearing about. We all know how that relationship turned out as not only did Culter and Marshall share great success in Denver the following year, but they eventually rekindled their bromance in Chicago years later. Jay Cutler absolutely loved throwing the ball to Brandon Marshall and the production the two of them compiled was wonderful.
But we don’t have to go back that far to see examples of how the quarterback/wide receiver relationship impacts fantasy football. For example, look at last season’s Philadelphia Eagles. Nick Foles started the first eight games of the season before being knocked out with a separated shoulder in Week 9. In those first eight games, Jeremy Maclin averaged 10.9 targets, 5.6 receptions, 90.2 yards and 0.86 touchdowns per game while Jordan Matthews was averaging 7.0 targets, 4.1 receptions, 39.0 yards and 0.29 touchdowns per game. The roles reversed once Foles went down and Mark Sanchez became the Eagles starter. Maclin dropped to 7.4 targets, 5.1 receptions, 76 yards and 0.44 touchdowns per game while Matthews’ production rose to 7.0 targets, 5.5 receptions, 76 yards and 0.75 touchdowns per game.
Quarterbacks are creatures of habit. When they find something they like that works, they stick with it. When the pressure comes, quarterbacks are going to put the ball up in the direction of the player they have the most confidence in to make a play. These wide receivers rack up more targets, more receptions and most importantly, more fantasy points. Anytime there is a change in quarterback the offense as a whole changes including the coach calling different plays. The offense uses different formations, different personnel grouping and substitutions are established. Anything and everything is done to make that quarterback feel comfortable. Anytime you see a quarterback change, please realize that everything you knew about that offense has changed. Maybe the backup quarterback will also feel comfortable throwing the ball to James Jones, or maybe he prefers his practice squad buddy Jarrett Boykin (see what I did there?).
The way to stay ahead of the competition in fantasy football is not to look back on what happened previously, but rather anticipate what is about to happen next. The better you are able to predict the trends before they happen (it’s not that hard), the better player you are going to be.