As if signing up for the Fantasy Alarm Assistant GM wasn't a good enough decision already, we present to you even more assistance in setting your lineups this week.
Every Friday throughout the NFL regular season I will be sending you this lineup helper that I like to call "Tough Decisions." In this article I will break down players with similar value, ranking and projection heading into this coming week.
Let's take a look at the TOUGH DECISIONS for Week 11:
Quarterbacks
Matt Ryan (vs. Colts) or Russell Wilson (vs. 49ers)
The Case for Ryan: With the weapons he has at his disposal, you would think Ryan would rank among the league’s best in touchdown passes. Most notably, Julio Jones and Devonta Freeman are two above-average pass-catching weapons, while Jacob Tamme is starting to develop into a more than serviceable tight end. However, his 12 touchdown passes are 20th most among starting quarterbacks. To help put things in perspective, here are some of the names of quarterbacks who have more passing touchdowns than Ryan; Ryan Fitzpatrick, Matthew Stafford, Kirk Cousins, Brian Hoyer, Marcus Mariota, Jay Cutler. Regardless of the position, the ability to score touchdowns helps differentiate the players in certain tiers, and Ryan has struggled to produce in that category. Ryan will take his weapons into a Week 11 matchup against the Indianapolis Colts, a team that has allowed the 11th-fewest fantasy points per game. Ryan hasn’t given us much optimism for a big game and that likely won’t change in this one. Expect another one or two touchdown performance from Ryan, but don’t expect elite numbers from the Atlanta signal caller.
The Case for Wilson: We’ve come to the point where we almost know exactly what we are going to get from Wilson. Given the tendencies of the Seattle offense, he isn’t going to rack up a ton of yards through the air (season high is 287 yards in Week 4) and he isn’t going to throw multiple touchdowns per game on a weekly basis. He has just one multi-touchdown game on the season and has failed to find the end zone on the ground through the first 10 weeks of the season. However, he is averaging almost 40 yards rushing per game, something that helps make up for the light passing efforts. Thanks to the rushing ability, he has a safe floor, but he hasn’t had an elite fantasy day yet this season. The struggling 49ers are coming into town, providing some optimism for that breakout game for Wilson, but Seattle isn’t going to change their game plan. The 49ers struggle stopping the ground game, so per usual, expect a healthy dosage of runs from the Seattle Seahawks.
The Verdict: Ryan. This was a close one, but Ryan should be able to throw for multiple scores against the Indy defense.
Running Backs
Charcandrick West (@Chargers) or Jonathan Stewart (vs. Redskins)
The Case for West: Since Week 7, West has accrued the second-most fantasy points per game, trailing Miami’s Lamar Miller. The injury to Jamaal Charles was a huge loss to the Kansas City offense, but West has done a more than adequate job in filling Charles’ shoes. In the team’s last three games, he has received 24, 24 and 27 touches, scoring at least one touchdown in each game. West is a factor in both the passing and running game, making him a top-tier RB1 moving forward. Luckily enough for fantasy owners, West draws the San Diego Chargers this weekend. San Diego’s soft defense has allowed the most fantasy points per game to opposing running backs, providing West another opportunity to top 20 carries, eclipse 100 total yards and find the end zone on at least one occasion. Roll with West and his high usage rate in Week 11.
The Case for Stewart: Stewart has received 20 or more carries in five straight weeks, averaging 88.4 rushing yards per game and scoring four touchdowns during that span. He doesn’t do much in the passing game, and the presence of Mike Tolbert and Cam Newton at the goal line make him far from a sure thing of getting those important carries. However, with a usage rate as high as this, Stewart is a must start, regardless of matchup. Stewart and the Panthers will face the Redskins in Week 11, a team who has been league average in terms of fantasy points allowed to opposing running backs. Washington has allowed just four rushing touchdowns to opposing backs, but they are one of only five (Browns, Saints, Dolphins, Chargers) to allow 1,000 rushing yards to running backs. Seeing as they have allowed a 100-yard rusher in four of their last five games, you have to like Stewart’s chances in Week 11.
The Verdict: West. He has been a beast lately and he is a dual-threat back. West is your man.
Jeremy Langford (vs. Broncos) or Justin Forsett (vs. Rams)
The Case for Langford: Regular starter Matt Forte has missed the last two games with a knee injury, but there is a possibility he returns for the team’s Week 11 tilt against the Denver Broncos. Langford’s fantasy value directly relates to Forte’s availability. If Forte is unable to go or is on a low snap count, Langford is your man. The Denver defense has been stiff, but they have been vulnerable of late. If you own Langford, you’ll want to wait to see what his status is before making a decision on Langford. Forte is expected to return soon, but given how successful Langford has been, the team has the luxury of being able to hold out their regular starter for an extra game or two. Once again, monitor Forte all the way up until kickoff before making an official decision on Langford.
The Case for Forsett: Forsett hasn’t seen over 20 touches in a game since Week 6, but there is hope for him in this one. With the Rams starting Case Keenum, the Ravens should be able to grasp an early lead, which should lead to Forsett seeing extra carries on the ground. However, the Rams' defense has been solid, allowing just 3.7 yards per carry on the season. Forsett is one of the more dangerous dual-threat backs in the league, and the Rams have allowed the fourth-most receiving yards to opposing running backs in 2015. Forsett should see over 20 touches this week, and eclipse 100 total yards against the Rams. In Week 11, Forsett is a solid RB2.
The Verdict: Forsett. Even if Forte doesn’t play, I like Forsett more. This will be extremely close, but call me crazy, I’m rolling with Forsett over Langford.
Wide Receivers
Danny Amendola (vs. Bills) or A.J. Green (@Cardinals)
The Case for Amendola: Amendola has been tabbed as the latest fantasy darling because of an injury to Julian Edelman. He caught 10 passes for 79 yards last week against the Giants, and will play in a similar fashion that Edelman did while healthy. In PPR leagues, he is going to be a huge addition because he will be running a lot of short, high-percentage routes which Tom Brady utilizes better than anyone in the league. The Patriots’ Week 11 opponent, the Buffalo Bills, are far from a brick wall when it comes to stopping opposing offenses, particularly the passing game. Brady is his quarterback and he is going to put the ball in Amendola’s hands early and often in this matchup. He makes for a fine flex play in Week 11 and will likely be a popular play in DFS. If you have him on your roster, he should be in your Week 11 lineup, because he does have high-end WR2 potential.
The Case for Green: Green has been a boom-or-bust receiver so far in 2015. It’s surprising that his numbers are down when Andy Dalton is playing the best football of his career. On Monday Night Football, against my beloved Houston Texans, Dalton laid an egg and Green suffered from it. Not to mention the fact that he lost a fumble that clinched the victory for Houston. This matchup is extremely tough for Green and Dalton, because Arizona is stingy against the pass. Green will likely be covered by Patrick Peterson all night, which is by no means an easy task. If Dalton tries to force the ball to Green, it could be a long night for the Cincinnati offense. I’m not a big fan of Green this week and he won’t be in any of my DFS lineups for Week 11
The Verdict: Amendola. I’m not a huge fan of Green this week, and I really like what Amendola brings to the table this week. Call me crazy again, but it is Mr. Amendola for me.
Stefon Diggs (vs. Packers) or Kamar Aiken (vs. Rams)
The Case for Diggs:
Weeks 6-8: 19 receptions for 332 yards and two touchdowns.
Weeks 9-10: Five receptions for 88 yards and zero touchdowns.
Sure, Diggs has cooled off of late, but most of that has been attributed to Adrian Peterson’s success on the ground. The Minnesota Vikings rode Peterson last week against Oakland, and he’s sure to get his carries this week against the Green Bay Packers. However, if the Packers can put up points, Minnesota is going to need the throw the ball. Enter Stefon Diggs. The Packers have allowed the sixth-most passing yards over the last three weeks and second most over the last five. Green Bay has been extremely vulnerable through the air the last few weeks, and I expect Minnesota to take advantage of that. Given his recent struggles, he is a risky play, but there is a huge opportunity for a big fantasy output. I don’t expect many to have him on their radar this week, but I’m all about the upside for Diggs in Week 11 against the Green Bay Packers.
The Case for Aiken: The Steve Smith injury was a huge blow to the Ravens, but it allowed Aiken to step into a larger role in the Baltimore offense. Last week, he saw a whopping 14 targets, hauling in seven for 73 yards. However, Aiken draws the Rams this week, a defense that has allowed the second-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers. However, he is going to see close to double-digit targets on a weekly basis, and that high usage rate sustains flex consideration week in and week out. He has better matchups ahead, so if you are deep at wide receiver, it might be worth sitting Aiken until next week when he draws the Cleveland Browns. However, in Week 11, he is still a solid flex play.
The Verdict: Diggs. Aiken is going to get his receptions and yardage, but Diggs should bounce back in a big way against the Packers this weekend.
Tight Ends
Zach Ertz (vs. Bucs) or Eric Ebron (vs. Raiders)
The Case for Ertz: Ertz has a pretty high floor for a tight end, and perhaps Mark Sanchez will look to his security blanket early and often in Week 11. Sanchez is starting in place of the injured Bradford this week, and seeing as Ertz saw a team-high 10 targets last week against the Dolphins, there is a lot of promise this week for the young tight end. Over the last five weeks, Tampa Bay, Philadelphia’s Week 11 opponent, has allowed the sixth-most fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends. The Bucs have been burned by a few tight ends this season (Jordan Reed, Jacob Tamme), providing plenty of optimism for Ertz this weekend. He is becoming a bigger part of the Philadelphia offense and owners should take advantage of that. Ertz will end this upcoming scoring week inside of the top 10 for most points by a tight end in Week 11.
The Case for Ebron: Boy, is there any Detroit Lion you can actually trust these days? If Ebron could catch the damn football he’d be a TE1 across the board. He has seen at least five targets in all but one game this year, however, he has the third-most drops among tight ends, trailing only Tyler Eifert and Garrett Graham. As risky a play as he has become, a matchup with the Oakland Raiders is simply too good to exploit. The Raiders are allowing the second-most points per game to opposing tight ends in 2015. Also, the 10 touchdowns they have surrendered to the position are the most among any team in the league. He might drive you crazy as an owner, but with a matchup this savory, you have to roll the dice. Ebron is a solid streaming option and DFS play in Week 11.
The Verdict: Ebron. The matchup with the Raiders is simply too good to pass up. Here’s to hoping he doesn’t drop the football!