Sam Bradford – QB – Philadelphia Eagles
6th season – 6’4” – 224 lbs
2014 Stats: DNP (Torn ACL)
Pluses – If he can stay healthy, and that’s a HUGE if, there is a lot to like here with Sam Bradford in Philadelphia. Since Chip Kelly took the reins, the Eagles have had a top-10 passing offense each year and given their up-tempo style, there will be plenty of chances for the Eagles on offense. Bradford came out of Oklahoma with tons of talent, drawing comparisons to some of the better quarterbacks in the National Football League. He has never had the luxury of working with an above-average group of receivers, something he will have at his disposal in Philadelphia. In 2010, his two leading receivers were Danny Amendola and Brandon Gibson, not exactly the cream of crop by any means. The following season, Brandon Lloyd and Danario Alexander entered the conversation. Since the Rams took him first overall in the 2010 NFL draft, his best season as a professional came in 2012, when he threw for 3,702 yards and 21 touchdowns in 16 games. His top receiver that year? You guessed it, Chris Givens. Well, barring any injuries in the preseason, Bradford will have Jordan Matthews, Riley Cooper, touted rookie Nelson Agholor and Josh Huff at his service. Not to mention the fact that DeMarco Murray is the best running back Bradford has ever had behind him, easing some pressure off his shoulders and opening up even more success in the play action department. Even though he is currently the backup, Zach Ertz should take over the tight end job in Philadelphia at some point, adding another quality weapon for Bradford. For the 2015 season, he will have the best supporting cast around him that he's ever had, and given Chip Kelly’s ability to put his quarterback in a thriving situation, Bradford is poised for his best year as a professional.
Minuses – Everyone knows it, but his career thus far has been derailed by injuries. Out of 80 possible games as an NFL quarterback, he has played in just 49. In that amount of games as a professional, he has thrown for just 11,065 yards and 59 touchdowns. At the same point, he has turned the ball over 56 times (38 INTs and 18 fumbles) and posted a lackluster 40.7 QBR. He did manage to play all of 2010 and 2012, but since the latter, it’s been rough for the former first overall pick. After tearing his ACL in Week 7 of the 2013 season, he tore the same ligament again last preseason, causing him to miss the entire 2014 campaign. While he will have an improved supporting cast around him, we can’t ignore the fact that he wasn’t much more than a game manager when he was healthy and playing for the Rams. He has yet to rank in the top-10 of the league in passing yards and his best finish was in his rookie season when his 3,512 yards were the 12th-highest in all of football. There is no denying that he does have the tools to be successful in the NFL, but we have yet to really see it. There is an underlying issue that many either don’t understand, or are neglecting to consider. In 2014, 32% of Philadelphia passing plays were play action passes, which was second most in all of football. If the Eagles continue that trend in 2015, given Bradford’s well-known injury history, couldn’t this be a recipe for disaster? It sure sounds like it.
Summary – After a below average 2012 season for Nick Foles, Kelly comes along and turns him into a top-12 fantasy quarterback. In 13 games, Foles threw for 2,891 yards with 27 touchdowns and just two interceptions, while registering a 73.8 QBR under Kelly. The fan base in Philadelphia is hoping that Kelly can jump start Bradford’s injury-riddled NFL career. Heck, Kelly led Mark Sanchez to a career high completion percentage, so he should surely be able to help a more talented player in Bradford, right? Regardless, it’s prevalent that there is an extreme risk of injury to Bradford operating in an offense that utilizes play action passes and quarterback rollouts as often as the Eagles, but the statistics say that it’s a gamble they must take. On play action passes, Bradford’s passer rating is almost 25 points higher than when he isn’t using play action. Many have talked that the ball looks good coming out of his hand, and that his arm is much better than the other quarterbacks in Philadelphia. While Mark Sanchez, Tim Tebow and Matt Barkley are in town, none of them can come close to matching Bradford’s live right arm. The chance for injury is high, but the chance for success in this system is very high as well. When it comes to Bradford’s value in fantasy leagues this year, he has the upside to be your top dog, but it’s much safer to draft him as a No. 2 quarterback. If you do draft him with the hopes of being your starter, make sure you draft another signal caller who is capable of being a starter in your league’s format. He is a high risk selection, but if he can stay upright, the potential upside at his average draft position is undeniable.
2015 Projection
61.1 CMP%, 3,773 yards passing, 26 TDs, 10 INT