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Kobalt 400
Las Vegas Motor Speedway
Sunday will mark the third race of the season as NASCAR heads west for a three-race stretch after an exciting finish to the Atlanta race last weekend. Kevin Harvick led by far the most laps and was in line for a dominating win, until he got himself a penalty. He was caught speeding in pit line with just 15 laps to go and restarted 14th, too far off the leaders to make it back to the front in such short fashion. Brad Keselowski wound up taking the checkered flag followed by a strong finish from Kyle Larson in second. Now it’s time to go racing in Sin City at the track that was just granted a second Cup race starting in 2018.
LVMS, as it’s called, is another 1.5-mile track much like Atlanta was last week, except that it does have different characteristics. The banking is less steep at a progressive slope of 12 to 20 degrees depending on how close to the outside wall you get, so the speeds won’t be quite as fast, though the smoother surface, than that of Atlanta’s, helps the cars gain and keep speed in the straights. Expect less three-wide racing this week than last as the top grove of the track at Vegas gets very slick, very quick and won’t get anywhere near the same amount of rubber laid down on it as the bottom and the middle groves will.
Keeping with the trend that has developed this season, Ford is the manufacturer with the most wins at the track with nine overall. This also happens to be a track with one of the lowest win rates from the top-five, with just 53% of winners coming from the top-five starting positions. Thus meaning that positional differential will be a key stat to watch this week as cars can come from back in the pack to win.
Now let’s get down to the reason you all are hear, the lineups and breakdowns.
DFS Playbook
| Driver | Draft Kings | NASCAR Live | Description |
| Kevin Harvick | $10,700 | $28.00 | Harvick not only leads the field in laps led the last three years at Vegas, he also has a solid +8 positional differential at LVMS. He won in 2015 and is coming in angry, either works |
| Brad Keselowski | $10,400 | $27.00 | Keselowski is the pole sitter here for the second time (first time qualifying there) and is the defending champ. He has speed but is a risk sitting in the front of the pack. GPP only |
| Jimmie Johnson | $10,200 | $27.00 | JJ is the winningest driver in the field here with four victories but he also has nine top-10s in 15 races at Vegas. He also has the second most laps led in the last two years with 121 |
| Joey Logano | $10,000 | $27.25 | Logano is tied with JJ for second in laps led and hasn't finished outside the top-10 in the last two races. He also has 15 top-five finishes in the last 25 races at the 1.5-mile distance |
| Chase Elliott | $9,700 | $26.75 | Chase continues to be Chase, consistent and good. He crashed out here last year to finish 38th, but the speed is back again this week. The price is a bit high but value is still there |
| Martin Truex Jr. | $9,500 | $22.25 | Truex Jr. has a fast car once again in his FRR Toyota, but he doesn't have the greatest track record here. Three top-10s in 11 career races mean he's more a GPP than cash play |
| Dale Earnhardt Jr. | $9,200 | $26.25 | Jr. likes this track. He has 10 top-10s in 17 races here and hasn't finished worse than eighth in the last two years. This price point works well to fit him in either lineup format |
| Matt Kenseth | $9,000 | $26.25 | Kenseth is a three-time winner here and has nine top-10s in 17 career races at LVMS but the last two years have been rough. He has shown well early this year, GPP is the play |
| Kyle Larson | $8,800 | $26.25 | Larson starts P5 Sunday as has run P4 and P2 in the two practices so far. He has the speed and skills to win this week as he has led a lap in the last 20 to go in each of the last two |
| Denny Hamlin | $8,600 | $25.50 | Hamlin is a mid-tier price this week but is a top-six driver here the last few years and is a top-10 driver at Vegas in his career. He starts P15 after running 19th and 10th in practice |
| Kasey Kahne | $8,400 | $22.25 | Kahne has been very fast this week and is one of only three drivers to finish in the top-10 in the first two races. The price point is too hard to turn down for the upside in lineups |
| Jamie McMurray | $7,600 | $21.00 | McMurray owns a +6 positional differential in the last two years at LVMS and will start P10. His consistent speed this season is a bonus at this price this week for either format |
| Ryan Blaney | $7,400 | $20.00 | Blaney, like mentioned in the track breakdown, is my sleeper. He has been in or near the top-five in practices and starts 3rd in the grid. He could lead the most laps and win the race |
| Erik Jones | $7,100 | $19.25 | Jones ran Vegas twice in Xfinity and has a top-five but also has a DNF. He has improved each week with speed and has it this week. Cash works given his practice runs so far |
| Trevor Bayne | $6,100 | $17.25 | Bayne is a budget saving play this week with immense upside. He owns a sparkling +9 positional differential and starts P20 in the grid. Running 8th in practice shows the upside |
Optimal Lineups
| Draft Kings Cash | |
| Kevin Harvick | $10,700 |
| Denny Hamlin | $8,600 |
| Kasey Kahne | $8,400 |
| Jamie McMurray | $7,600 |
| Ryan Blaney | $7,400 |
| Erik Jones | $7,100 |
| Total | $49,800 |
The Draft Kings cash group is led by the top guy in Kevin Harvick ($10,700) as he is arguably the best driver in the field here with a combo of laps led and positional differential that’s hard to beat. Denny Hamlin ($8,600) and Kasey Kahne ($8,400) are next up with very good value in the $8,000-tier. Hamlin is a top-six driver here and Kahne has the speed and consistency you look for in a cash game lineup. A trio of $7,000-tier drivers round out the lineup with Jamie McMurray ($7,600), Ryan Blaney ($7,400), and Erik Jones ($7,100). Each brings their own upside to the lineup and Blaney is my sleeper to win this week and lead the most laps. Jones is a rookie but has shown the skills it takes to land a top-10 finish and McMurray has been fast each week plus has a +6.0 positional differential here.
| Draft Kings GPP | |
| Jimmie Johnson | $10,200 |
| Dale Earnhardt Jr. | $9,200 |
| Kasey Kahne | $8,400 |
| Austin Dillon | $8,200 |
| Ryan Blaney | $7,400 |
| Trevor Bayne | $6,100 |
| Total | $49,500 |
The GPP for Draft Kings starts with three of the four Hendrick Motorsports drivers, simply because of value offered. Jimmie Johnson ($10,200), Dale Earnhardt Jr. ($9,200), and Kasey Kahne ($8,400) all start further back than their respective speed suggests they should. J.J. has the most wins at the track in the field with four and Jr. has finished in the top-10 six straight years here, the longest streak ever. Austin Dillon ($8,200), Ryan Blaney ($7,400), and Trevor Bayne ($6,100) round out the six-driver roster. Dillon has shown top-10 speed at practice and has a top-10 finish to his credit here in the last two years. Blaney you know about and Bayne is way too good a value to pass up on for a budget play. The number-six car has a +9.0 positional differential and has run as fast as eighth in practice.
| NASCAR Live | |
| Kevin Harvick | $28.00 |
| Kyle Larson | $26.25 |
| Ryan Blaney | $20.00 |
| Trevor Bayne | $17.25 |
| Landon Cassill | $7.75 |
| Bonus Winner | Jimmie Johnson |
| Bonus Manufacturer | Chevrolet |
| Total | $99.25 |
The NASCAR Fantasy Live roster of five starts once again with Kevin Harvick ($28.00) after his dominant showing last week and his intriguing history this week. A few other familiar names follow in Kyle Larson ($26.25), Ryan Blaney ($20.00), and Trevor Bayne ($17.25). The last guy on the roster is Landon Cassill ($7.75) as a budget-friendly play who has shown since last year that he can put up consistent point totals as a cheap play, that’s what we’re looking for again.
| Streak To The Finish | Dale Earnhart Jr. |
Dale Earnhardt Jr. has finished in the top-10 at Las Vegas in every race for the last six years, which is the longest such streak in the track's history.
Matthew Selz can be found on Twitter @theselzman and on Fantasy Alarm Forums in the NASCAR section.