Just like his wide array of pitches within his repertoire, Trevor Bauer presents a mixed bag of results for fantasy. Last year, Bauer won 11 of his 24 decisions among his 34 starts with a career high 253 strikeouts in 213 innings. But Bauer’s ERA rose to 4.48 with a FIP of 4.34 and a 1.25 WHIP making 2018 look like an outlier. Following up his breakout proved difficult with Bauer’s strikeout percentage dropping slightly to 27.8 percent and his walk rate increased by one percent to nine resulting in 18.8 strikeouts minus walks percentage. 

 

Determining if the lower seams on the fastball or the hitter friendly environment caused Bauer to regress remains to be seen. He carried over his swinging strike percentage gain with a 12.2 percent rate. Bauer’s contact allowed rose to 73 percent but remained three points below his career average. 

 

Knowing the varied arsenal Bauer deploys, here is his pitch plot from last year with usage percentages included:

 

 

Compared to his 2018 season, Bauer threw fewer curves and more cutters with mixed results. It’s curious since Bauer recorded a .168 batting average against with a .206 expected batting average compared to his cutter which produced a .312 average against with a .251 expected average. Yet, Bauer’s fastball yielded a matching .272 batting average and expected one but 20 of his 34 home runs on the year. Combine this with Bauer’s reduced first strike percentage and zone percent with his pitches. 

 

In order to discern the effectiveness of his pitches, Bauer’s swing and miss results could help:

 

  • Four-seam fastball - 16 strikeout percentage, 21.7 whiff rate, 16.1 put away percent
  • Curve - 41.6 strikeout percentage, 32.1 whiff rate, 24.6 put away percent
  • Cutter - 11.8 strikeout percentage, 37.2 whiff rate, 17.3 put away percent
  • Slider - 43.5 strikeout percentage, 44.1 whiff rate, 27.1 put away percent
  • Change-up - 21.4 strikeout percentage, 30.6 whiff rate, 16.2 put away percent

 

Check out his chart illustrating the swing and miss results generated:

 

 

On the surface, it seems like Bauer would benefit from using more curves and sliders but recapturing his 2018 numbers will be tough to do. This needs to be factored when trying to value Bauer correctly going forward. A return to more ground balls would also benefit Bauer. His drop to a 38.8 ground ball rate marked a 6.5 percent drop while giving up more fly balls (28.2 percent) but fewer line drives (23.7 percent). Again, a confounding bit of data when predicting future outcomes. 

 

Before viewing his projections, another sign of hope lies in a rebound in ground balls produced. From 2018 to last year, his change-up lost almost 27 percentage points in terms of ground ball rate while Bauer’s slider induced over 15 percent fewer. His cutter and four-seam improved slightly, but not enough to offset the losses of his other two pitches. Most encouraging, Bauer’s curve held steady generating a ground ball percent over 60 in both seasons. Here’s his chart courtesy of BrooksBaseball.net:

 

 

Buoyed by 2018, Bauer’s last three years' data yields a 40 - 28 record over 92 starts and 564.2 innings. He recorded 670 strikeouts with a 3.68 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. At the age of 29, Bauer’s young enough to hold his velocity and refine his pitch sequencing for an improved 2020 season. Using the five projection systems on Fangraphs as a guide, here’s his average projection from them: 

 

  • Trevor Bauer 2020 Aggregate Projection - 32 starts, 197 innings, 13 wins, 231 strikeouts, 3.89 ERA, 1.25 WHIP

 

Given the current landscape of starting pitching, many would sign up for these results by Bauer. At his current price point, it would provide room for profit as well. In the event baseball shifts to a truncated season, Bauer’s projections in two different scenarios would reflect the same ratio statistics with the following adjustments:

 

  • Bauer 108-game season projection - 21 starts, 129 innings, nine wins, 151 strikeouts
  • Bauer 81-game season projection - 16 starts, 99 innings, seven wins, 116 strikeouts

 

Paying for a return to 2018 or a carbon copy of last year makes Bauer tough to value correctly. He owns the arsenal to succeed versus major league hitters and started the spring strong prior to the pandemic shutdown. If Bauer uses a higher number of curves and brings back more sliders to his arsenal, strikeout upside remains intact with a chance he reaches or bests his ratio statistics. Not for the risk averse, Bauer could be a bargain or a league average pitcher. Choose wisely but the range of outcomes resemble his array of pitches. 

 

Statistical Credits:

BaseballSavant.com

Fangraphs.com

BrooksBaseball.net