On the periphery of the “Baby Jays”, Rowdy Tellez became the fourth player in Toronto history to hit at least 20 home runs as a rookie last year. Although Tellez struggled early in the season resulting in his being optioned to Triple-A on July 15th, he slashed .366/.450/.688 over 95 at-bats with seven home runs resulting in his promotion again in August. Tellez finished strong reaching base 18 times his last 40 plate appearances spanning ten contests with four doubles and two home runs.
This spike in production hints at potential upside for the slugger but his 111 game sample in 2019 yielded 49 runs with 21 home runs, 54 RBI, a stolen base and a .227/.293/.449 slash. His approach needs refinement, owning a 7.1 walk percentage and 28.4 strikeout rate. Upon his return in August, Tellez raised his walk percent to 9.8 and slightly reduced his strikeout percentage to 26.8 while raising his isolated power to .255 his last 33 games. Entering camp in much better shape to stay on the major league roster, Tellez also worked on his swing in the off-season to maximize his power potential.
According to Statcast, Tellez recorded 257 batted ball events with 34 barrels (13.2 percent), a 90.7 MPH average exit velocity and 14 degree launch angle. Although his low number of games keeps Tellez from the top of the barrel leaderboard, his 13.2 barrel percentage resides in the top ten percent among his peers last season. Tellez also notched a 39.7 sweet spot percent and a 41.8 hard hit rate. He pulled the ball in 37.8 percent of his batted ball data using the middle of the field most often (43.2 percent). Tellez also produced a 39.7 ground ball percentage while generating a 27.6 fly ball rate and 26.5 line drive percentage. Here’s his spray chart from 2019:
A propensity to swing and miss will exist in Tellez’s approach, but there’s hope in his expected statistics. Last year, Tellez owned a .251 expected batting average with a .476 expected slugging and .332 expected weighted on-base average (24 points above his actual). Migration to the mean in regards to his batted ball data makes Tellez an intriguing deep league target. When perusing the similar hitter names on Statcast, interesting names appear: Keston Hiura , Eugenio Suárez and Franmil Reyes . There’s no guarantee Tellez takes the next step forward, but his zone profile provides some hope:
Discerning if Tellez becomes a sleeper in terms of power production depends on if he made the correct adjustment to his swing and not being a Quad-A player. Due to the chance a shortened season ensues in the majors, his projections also reflect the chance Tellez can move his actual numbers towards the expected ones cited above. Since his projections widely varied, the average of two different samples will be reflected in each one listed:
- Rowdy Tellez 2020 Aggregate THE BAT and Steamer Projection - 75 games, 38 runs, 14 home runs, 42 RBI, two stolen bases, .246 average
- Rowdy Tellez 2020 Aggregate ATC and ZiPS Projection - 118 games, 55 runs, 21 home runs, 63 RBI, two stolen bases, .246 average
Since playing time and production will be necessary to determine upside for Tellez, he remains a deep league flier and a player to track at the onset of the season. There’s a chance Tellez could be a very inexpensive power hitter with some upside in the year ahead, especially if he can maximize his power potential.
Statistical Credits:
BaseballSavant.com
Fangraphs.com
ATC courtesy of Ariel Cohen
ZiPS courtesy of Dan Szymborski
Steamerprojections.com
THE BAT courtesy of Derek Carty