It’s rare a starting pitcher records a career year at the age of 35, but Charlie Morton bucked the trend. Signing a free agent deal with Tampa Bay, Morton tweaked his repertoire en route to 16 wins, a 3.05 ERA, 2.81 FIP, and 1.08 WHIP. More importantly, Morton notched a career high 240 strikeouts over his 194.2 innings. Morton’s an accumulator in regards to strikeouts, so any peak in innings will carry over to his strikeout total. 

Beneath his surface numbers, Morton averaged almost six innings per outing, an uptick compared to his more managed innings by Houston. Morton also raised his swinging strike percentage to 12.9, and his O-Swing rate to 33.5 percent. His contact percentage allowed and Z-Contact (in the strike zone) remained steady which bodes well for a repeat in the year ahead. 

According to Statcast, Morton allowed 481 batted ball events giving up 24 barrels (five percent) and an average launch angle of 9.1 degrees. Despite throwing fewer sinkers for the third straight season, Morton avoided hard contact. Last year, he increased his four-seam fastball frequency with fewer curves and cutters with success. Sinkers usually allow a higher batting average against and it appears the Rays convinced Morton to use it less with improved results for fantasy purposes. Before delving into the data, here’s his arsenal with usage percentages from 2019: 

Morton improved his swing percentage by 2.8 points and his whiff rate slightly due to his adjusted pitch usage patterns. Check out how each of his main four pitches fared last season: 

  • Curve - 41.3 strikeout percentage, 38.1 whiff rate, 27.1 put away percent
  • Four-seam - 37.9 strikeout percentage, 28.9 whiff rate, 26.4 put away percent
  • Sinker - 9.4 strikeout percentage, 13.2 whiff rate, 14.7 put away percent
  • Cutter - 5.7 strikeout percentage, 34.6 whiff rate, 17.6 put away percent

For the visual crowd, Morton’s swing and miss chart reflects the numbers above: 

Since cutters bore in on left-handed hitters, Morton uses this pitch to not only generate swings and misses, but important ground outs. Amazingly, Morton’s batted ball data last year almost aligns exactly with his results from 2018 despite a much friendlier hitting environment. This reflects in his 3.28 xERA and Morton’s zone profile:

Over the last three years, Morton flies below the elite in terms of fantasy valuation even though he owns a 45 - 16 record over 88 starts with 604 strikeouts, a 3.24 ERA, and 1.14 WHIP in 508.1 innings of work. Age and regression can cause some concern for Morton going forward, but an adjusted baseball with higher seams and less flight may assuage them. Using four projection systems on Fangraphs, here’s Morton’s average of them for the upcoming season: 

  • Charlie Morton 2020 Aggregate Projection - 31 starts, 180 innings, 13 wins, 209 strikeouts, 3.45 ERA, 1.18 WHIP

As his age increases, so do concerns about Morton’s durability but at his present price point he still represents a bargain. Even with a potentially shortened year, here’s how his projections could appear in two scenarios:

  • Morton 108-game season projection - 20 starts, 116 innings, nine wins, 135 strikeouts
  • Morton 81-game season projection - 15 starts, 87 innings, seven wins, 101 strikeouts

Armed with a track record of success and pitching for a contender makes Morton a very desirable second pitcher in fantasy without paying a steep price in draft capital. Target him with confidence and reap the understated rewards of his fantasy worth in 2020. 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Statistical Credits:

BaseballSavant.com

Fangraphs.com