It may come as a surprise to find out only three players have hit at least 30 home runs in each of the last five seasons: Nelson Cruz , Nolan Arenado and Manny Machado . Signing a lucrative contract with the Padres puts undue pressure on a player but Machado launched 32 home runs despite leaving the comfy confines of Camden Yards. Unfortunately, Machado continued his yo-yo tendencies in batting average hitting .256/.334/.462 in 2019 during 156 games with 81 runs, 85 RBI and five stolen bases. All told, close to a normal season for Machado though his runs and RBI did not match his past totals and the lower average hurt his overall value.

Delving into Machado’s plate discipline metrics from Fangraphs, he owned a 9.8 walk percentage with a 19.4 strikeout rate. To no surprise, his isolated power dipped to .206 even with his lower batting average affected by his precipitous fall in batting average on balls in play (BABIP) to .274 in 2019. While this seems like an outlier, Machado hit .259 in 2017 with a career low .265 BABIP. Hope lies in his even year rebounds along with adjustments to his new league and ballpark.

Machado suffered some extreme splits last season. He hit .315 with a .685 slugging percentage versus southpaws and tied for sixth in the majors with 13 home runs against them. He hit 19 of his 32 home runs against right-handed pitchers but with a paltry .239 average and .400 slugging percentage. Heeding his career numbers of a .275/.330/.478 slash facing right-handed pitchers and a .288/.349/.498 line versus left-handed pitchers suggests migration to the mean in both circumstances. It’s worse viewing his numbers at Petco (.219 average) against his road numbers (.289). Without the benefit of playing in Baltimore, Machado would benefit returning to his roots of pulling the ball closer to 40-percent of the time. Again, it’s a game of adjustments and Machado will improve.

According to Statcast, Machado recorded 462 batted ball events with 37 barrels (eight percent), a 91.2 MPH average exit velocity and a 13-degree launch angle. Both his hard-hit rate (43.7-percent) and sweet spot percentage (31.2) decreased compared to his 2018 numbers. This aligns with his drop in pull percentage to 31.4 while hitting the ball to the middle of the field over 40-percent of his batted ball data. A dip in line drive percentage to 21.4-percent can be overlooked but he needs to cut down on his ground ball rate rise. Here’s his spray chart from last season:

Machado’s zone swing percentage regressed but his zone contact rate held steady. His expected statistics of a .266 batting average and .466 slugging suggest some bad luck as well. Plus, his expected weighted on-base average finished seven points below his actual. Not an appreciable difference, but still worth noting. Here’s his zone profile courtesy of Statcast:

Part of Machado’s collapse in batting average resonates in his struggles versus breaking and off-speed pitches. Taking everything into account, perhaps his last three year numbers of 1,849 at-bats with 246 runs, 102 home runs, 287 RBI, 28 stolen bases and a .271/.337/.491 slash provides solace to his investors going forward.

Taking into account his last three-year data, Machado’s average projection from five sites on Fangraphs yields a line similar to them:

  • Manny Machado 2020 Average Projection - 155 games, 88 runs, 35 home runs, 102 RBI, seven stolen bases, .271 average

It’s hard to believe Machado will only turn 28 in July of this season firmly entrenching him in his power peak. Paying for his baseline projection still provides room for profit. First, Machado owns eligibility at shortstop and third base in 2020 plus his average will improve. Add in San Diego’s improved lineup and Machado gets vastly overlooked in redraft leagues. In the event of a shortened season, here’s how his projection could look in two different scenarios:

  • Machado 108-game projection - 61 runs, 24 home runs, 71 RBI, five stolen bases
  • Machado 81-game projection - 46 runs, 18 home runs, 53 RBI, four stolen bases

Not only will owners get a player primed for a rebound, Manny Machado will hit in prime real estate on a playoff contending team. Bounce back veterans at a reduced price point will be on many winning team’s rosters, Machado should be included as a target among them.

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Statistical Credits:

BaseballSavant.com

Fangraphs.com