With the dearth of first base options available, late round stashes could pay dividends as the season progresses. One name to keep in mind, Garrett Cooper . A bit of a late bloomer, Cooper slashed a respectable .281/.344/.446 last year in 107 games spanning 421 plate appearances. He scored 52 runs with 15 home runs and 50 RBI. Cooper lost time to injury and as a part of fluid playing time. One plus for Cooper on a team’s bench or in a deep league, his eligibility at first base and outfield.

Last year, Cooper recorded a 7.8 walk percentage with a 26.1 strikeout rate. His isolated power of .165 accompanies a 23.8 home run per fly ball percentage. He made strides in terms of plate discipline cutting his swinging strike percentage by 4.6 percent, increased his contact rate by over 11 points to 79 percent and his Z-Contact (in the strike zone) by over 10 points. All strong building blocks in his development.

According to Stacast, Cooper registered 272 batted ball events with 26 barrels (9.6 percent), an 89.1 MPH average exit velocity and a 4.5-degree launch angle. This presents a sticking point for Cooper to maximize his power, elevating more baseballs on contact. Cooper owned a 52.9 ground ball percentage with a 16.9 fly ball rate and 26.8-line drive percent. Key on the line drive upside and hope he generates more fly balls in 2020. With this in mind, here’s his spray chart from last year:

Another wrinkle of hope, Miami moved its fences in by 12 feet in center field and right-center field. Cooper used the middle of the field in almost 40 percent of his batted ball data and hit to the opposite field 32 percent of the time. If Cooper improves his launch angle and carries over the trends of his batted ball direction, his home run rate could improve even with a less active baseball.

Delving into his expected statistics, Cooper owned a .269 expected batting average and .464 expected slugging. He improved his zone contact to 83.2 percent and cut his whiff percentage from 35.1 in 2018 to 23.4 last season. With all of the information within his batted ball profile, Cooper could keep his average near last year’s if the adjusted fences increase his double and home run production. Here’s Cooper’s zone profile courtesy of Statcast:

Although Cooper owns some upside potential, the biggest worry is playing time. Cooper could start the season in right field or on the bench in the wrong side of a platoon. This gets baked into his projections:

  • Garrett Cooper 2020 Steamer Projections: 80 games, 38 runs, 10 home runs, 39 RBI, stolen base; .264/.325/.425
  • Garrett Cooper 2020 ATC Projections: 106 games, 417 plate appearances, 49 runs, 14 home runs, 53 RBI; .269/.331/.436
  • Garrett Cooper 2020 THE BAT Projections: 89 games, 340 plate appearances, 37 runs, 11 home runs, 41 RBI, stolen base; .264/.327/.426

Due to the variables affecting playing time, Garrett Cooper remains a flier entering this season. There’s potential for a 20-plus home runs, but he will need to accrue at least 450 plate appearances or more. Track the progress of Cooper in spring along with how the Marlins deploy him going forward. For now, Cooper should be a reserve player in 12-team mixed league formats, but there’s some intrigue for deeper league players, especially if he approaches the ATC projection set with a chance for a bit more upside.

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Statistical Credits:

BaseballSavant.com

Fangraphs.com

Steamerprojections.com

ATC courtesy of Ariel Cohen

THE BAT courtesy of Derek Carty