As a rookie, Jeff McNeil burst onto the scene with the Mets slashing .329/.381/.471 over his first 63 games in 2018. He followed up his propensity to maintain a high batting average with on-base skills last year with a .318/.384/.531 line. McNeil scored 83 runs with 23 home runs, 75 RBI and five stolen bases. A hamstring injury cut his season short before a fractured wrist in September ended it abruptly. During 2019, McNeil flirted with the batting average title but his last 28 game power surge (eight home runs) accompanied a .265/.328/.540 line unlike his past success.

It’s difficult to discern if McNeil traded his average for power returning from injury, perhaps too soon, before his season ended. With a notable spike in isolated power, it’s likely this occurred. But McNeil’s known for his ability to generate contact, his aggressiveness at the plate and the ability to hit for average. He owned a 6.2 walk percentage with a 13.2 strikeout rate, an 11.1 swinging strike percentage and 41.6 O-Swing (out of the strike zone) percent. Yet, McNeil recorded a .214 isolated power, 15.4 home run per fly ball percentage, 81.4 contact rate and 88.1 Z-Contact (in the strike zone) percent.

According to Statcast, McNeil registered 436 batted ball events with 21 barrels (4.8-percent), an 88.4 MPH average exit velocity and 13.2-degree launch angle. In the year of the home run, McNeil notched a 36.6-percent hard hit rate and a 33.9 sweet spot percentage. McNeil also finished with a 24.1-percent fly ball percentage and 26.6 line-drive rate. He pulled the ball in 44.7 percent of his batted ball data. Here’s his spray chart from last year:

Transitioning to McNeil’s underlying statistics, his expected batting average of .290 along with an expected slugging of .472 point to some migration to the mean. It can be taken with a grain of salt since many major league players outperform their expected results from year to year. More noteworthy, McNeil’s expected weighted on-base average of .355 which sits 30 points below his actual from last season. Look over his zone profile before delving into his aggressive nature:

In 2019, McNeil offered at the first pitch in over half of his plate appearances with a 50.5 first pitch swing percent. McNeil also recorded a 59.9 swing percentage with a relatively minuscule 20 whiff rate. His ability to generate contact keeps him relevant, but if he truly wishes to win a batting title, improving upon his patience could be required.

Taking all of this into account, McNeil raked in the minors with a career .311/.380/.442 slash covering over 1,600 at-bats. Could he experience some regression in 2020, sure but his projections simply move it towards his expected numbers from above:

  • Jeff McNeil 2020 Steamer Projections: 144 games, 645 plate appearances, 86 runs, 20 home runs, 71 RBI, nine stolen bases; .288/.348/.463
  • Jeff McNeil 2020 ATC Projections: 145 games, 614 plate appearances, 87 runs, 20 home runs, 73 RBI, seven stolen bases; .295/.356/.477
  • Jeff McNeil 2020 THE BAT Projections: 144 games, 623 plate appearances, 81 runs, 20 home runs, 75 RBI, five stolen bases; .287/.349/.464

When comparing the projection sets, THE BAT forecasts the biggest loss in terms of batting average. Home runs should migrate back towards 20 in the season ahead with all reports suggesting a less “bouncy” baseball. Stolen bases will be interesting to predict. In 2018, McNeil succeeded in seven of his eight stolen base attempts but only swiped five in 11 tries last year. He could come close to the nine predicted by Steamer, however, would need to improve upon his success rate. Given all the variables, McNeil owns appeal for fantasy due to the insulation he provides in terms of batting average without sacrificing counting statistics. Pay for an average in the .290’s and profit if he returns to a run at the batting title. His runs and RBI could fluctuate depending on his spot in the batting order but it’s nitpicking at that point. McNeil’s for real and given health, he should meet or exceed his projection sets.

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Statistical Credits:

BaseballSavant.com

Fangraphs.com

Steamerprojections.com

ATC courtesy of Ariel Cohen

THE BAT courtesy of Derek Carty