Trusting a second half breakout can be tough to do, but overlooking Ryan McMahon finishing second on the Rockies in home runs (14) and RBI (47) after the break last year to Nolan Arenado seems appealing. Winning the second base job during spring training, McMahon set franchise records with the most home runs (24) and RBI (83) by a primary player at the position in team history. McMahon scored 70 runs with five stolen bases and a respectable .250/.329/.450 slash line over 539 plate appearances last year spanning 141 games.

On a positive note, McMahon owned a 10.4 walk percentage but struck out in just under 30 percent of his plate appearances. A strong second fueled his isolated power to .200 for the year with a 27-percent home run per fly ball rate. McMahon notched a 14.7 swinging strike percentage, a 70.3 contact rate, 29.2 O-Swing (out of the strike zone) percent and 78.3 Z-Contact percentage. However, in the second half, McMahon cut his swinging strike percentage to 13.8 while increasing his contact to 72-percent and the Z-Contact to 81.6-percent. Intriguing.

Although McMahon’s average dipped to .244 after the break, his isolated power surged to .256 with the improved contact rates and his home run per fly ball percentage jumped to 40.5-percent. This perhaps signals a change in approach but also adjustments to major league pitching. File this away.

According to Statcast, McMahon registered 322 batted ball events with 29 barrels (nine percent), a 91.4 MPH average exit velocity and a launch angle of 9.7 degrees. McMahon’s average exit velocity ranked 22nd among all major league hitters contributing to his robust 47.7 hard hit percentage and 36.6 sweet spot percent. Part of the reason his home run per fly ball rate seems so high, McMahon recorded a 51.2 ground ball percentage last year with a 19.3 fly ball rate and appealing 25.5 line-drive percent. He only pulls the ball 31.7 percent of his batted ball data using the center of the field 40.4-percent of the time and a 28 opposite field percentage. Here’s his spray chart from last year:

Shifting to his expected numbers, McMahon owned a .245 expected batting average and a .429 expected slugging. His .419 expected weighted batting average on contact (xwoBACON) sits above the league average, so a slight gain in average could be mined going forward. Here’s his zone profile from 2019:

McMahon enters his Age-25 season with Coors Field insulating his fly ball batting average on balls in play, if only he would increase his launch angle. Other positive points lie in McMahon’s increased zone swing percentage while reducing slightly his swing and whiff rates. Bake this into his second half power surge and some of McMahon’s upside will be missed by the projection sets:

  • Ryan McMahon 2020 Steamer Projections: 128 games, 519 plate appearances, 63 runs, 20 home runs, 70 RBI, five stolen bases; .268/.337/.463
  • Ryan McMahon 2020 ATC Projections: 138 games, 540 plate appearances, 66 runs, 21 home runs, 75 RBI, five stolen bases; .260/.331/.455
  • Ryan McMahon 2020 THE BAT Projections: 128 games, 556 plate appearances, 73 runs, 21 home runs, 74 RBI, five stolen bases; .257/.328/.455

Each of the three sites foresee a boost in Ryan McMahon ’s average, which this profile agrees with. However, ignoring the power gains in the second half could be an oversight. McMahon hitting 25 or more home runs would not come as a surprise, so Fantasy Alarm baseball guide members can profit if this happens. Pay for the ATC projection, but potential profit lies in him launching 25-to-27 home runs with a boost in RBI as a result. It will be our little secret.

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Statistical Credits:

BaseballSavant.com

Fangraphs.com

Steamerprojections.com

ATC courtesy of Ariel Cohen

THE BAT courtesy of Derek Carty