When targeting a closer, loyalty by his team can be a pivotal factor. Kenley Jansen owns the trust of the Dodgers no matter his struggles or health issues. Jansen recorded 33 saves last year with five wins of his eight decisions, a 3.71 ERA, 3.77 xFIP and 1.06 WHIP. His 100-strikeout years seem to be over with consecutive seasons in the 80-range instead, so it’s time to drop Jansen from the top tier of his peers. Interestingly, Jansen raised his swinging strike percentage by 2.2 points last season while reducing contact by 3.5-percent in one of the best hitting environments in history.

But, his second half swoon needs to be addressed. Over his last 26.1 innings, Jansen owned a 4.44 ERA, 4.08 xFIP and 1.25 WHIP working with reduced velocities:

Jansen’s lower velocity started in June with his fastball and slider. This stretch inflated his ratios and need to be factored into his projections. Shifting to Statcast, here’s a look at his pitch plot from last year:

Relying on his cutter, Jansen depresses hard hits allowing only 10 barrels (6.1-percent) of his 163 batted ball events in 2019. He finished with an average exit velocity of 84.5 MPH and an 18.4-degree launch angle resulting in only a 26.1-percent hard hit rate. He also raised his whiff percentage by 4.2 points. Here’s the same chart with swings and misses by pitch:

Elevated cutters and a few sliders in the dirt account for most with his four-seam sprinkled in. Jansen generated a 36.2-percent ground ball rate, 25.8-percent fly ball rate, and 27-percent line drive rate. Armed with an expected batting average of .211, a .345 expected slugging, and a .266 weighted on-base average, Jansen’s zone profile does come with optimistic results:

During 2019, Kenley Jansen became the 30th player in major league history to record 300 saves. He’s also the sixth player to achieve the feat with one team. Jansen’s notched at least 30 saves in six straight seasons. Over the last three years, he owns an 11-8 record with 112 saves in 204 innings, 273 strikeouts versus 42 walks, a 2.65 ERA, 3.06 xFIP and 0.94 WHIP. Weighing this against his second-half clouds his projection sets.

Using the results from three sites, how one feels about Jansen will decide if he’s worth his price point. Jansen currently gets taken as the ninth closer in average draft position. A shift in his market value for sure. This resonates as well in his projections, please note, ZiPS does not include saves in its numbers:

  • Kenley Jansen 2020 Steamer Projection - 3 - 3, 37 Saves, 65 IP, 75:18 K:BB, 3.87 ERA, 1.14 WHIP
  • Kenley Jansen 2020 ATC Projection - 3 - 3, 35 Saves, 62 IP, 75:16 K:BB, 3.75 ERA, 1.11 WHIP
  • Kenley Jansen 2020 ZiPS Projection - 4 - 2, 60 IP, 78:15 K:BB, 3.15 ERA, 1.03 WHIP

Points in Jansen’s favor, his team’s commitment to him in the closer role, a track record of racking up saves and stability at a volatile position. Yet, there are some cracks in the foundation. If Jansen achieves the Steamer or ATC projection, he’s being valued correctly in early drafts. However, if Jansen reaches the ZiPS ratios, there’s room for profit.

When constructing a roster, Kenley Jansen makes for a somewhat safe play without strikeout upside. This needs to be weighed when taking pitchers. Even with migration towards the Steamer projection, Jansen’s a decent bet to attain 30 saves due to the bridge before him in Los Angeles along with his track record. Just do not invest thinking a return to his 2017 levels can be reached again and hope the second half from last year proves to be a blip, not a harbinger of things to come.

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Statistical Credits:

BaseballSavant.com

Fangraphs.com

BrooksBaseball.net

Steamerprojections.com

ATC courtesy of Ariel Cohen

ZiPS courtesy of Dan Szymborski