There’s many ways to approach targeting a catcher in fantasy, but it seems like Wilson Ramos will not reach his outlier power displayed in 2016 with 22 home runs. In fact, his 2019 could be the ceiling going forward. Solid, but not exciting. Ramos appeared in 141 games with 52 runs, 14 home runs, 73 RBI, a stolen base and .288/.351/.416 slash line. Ramos produced an 8.4 walk percentage with a 13.2 strikeout rate. His isolated power cratered by 52 points to .129 in a year earmarked by players recording career hard hit rates.

So, what happened and will Ramos ever produce power upside again? It starts with his launch angle last year of zero. Versus fastballs, Ramos owned a launch angle of negative one, which seems almost impossible. Ramos recorded 407 batted ball events with 19 barrels (4.7 percent), an average exit velocity of 90 MPH and a 42.2 hard hit rate. Palatable but it caps reaching 20 home runs anytime soon.

For a positive, Ramos increased his zone contact (in the strike zone) to 86.3 percent while reducing his whiff percentage by almost four percent. This resulted in a .263 expected average and a .402 expected slugging. Here’s his zone profile:

Ramos’ plate discipline also graded well on Fangraphs with a 9.9 swinging strike percentage, 81.3 contact rate and 89.6 Z-Contact rate. What tempers his power lies in the 63.4 ground ball percent spike last year according to Statcast with only a 13.8 fly ball rate and 19.9 line drive percentage. If there’s going to be any growth in his statistics, it must be a result of a better launch angle. Over the last two years, here’s a chart displaying what it looks like:

Most of his hits lie in the 10 to 20 degree range. During the last two seasons, Ramos owns a very respectable slash of .295/.353/.446 with 91 runs, 29 home runs, 144 RBI, a stolen base and a .152 isolated power during 944 plate appearances spanning 253 games. He’s proven durable while not being a drain on batting average at a position of need in fantasy.

Converting even some of his 49.1 percent topped batted ball events to solid contact would delight his owners. Ramos trailed off last year in barrel production, so any migration towards his past results would be welcomed. His home run per fly ball percentages seem enticing until noting the large volume of ground balls inflates it. Key on Ramos elevating baseballs this spring. One key statistic of note in the spring, the air outs versus groundouts in spring training games could hold the key to a Ramos rebound in 2020. Here’s his spray chart from the last two years for reference:

Again, there’s nothing wrong with taking Wilson Ramos , especially given his batting average insulation at catcher with 73 RBI last year. In order to keep his value at its present point, if his average regresses, a bit more power would accomplish this. Here’s his projections from three different sites:

  • Wilson Ramos 2020 Steamer Projection - 99 games, 412 plate appearances, 47 runs, 15 home runs, 55 RBI, stolen base; .274/.332/.448
  • Wilson Ramos 2020 ATC Projection - 120 games, 459 at-bats, 47 runs, 15 home runs, 64 RBI, stolen base; .276/.332/.426
  • Wilson Ramos 2020 THE BAT Projection - 107 games, 422 plate appearances, 47 runs, 13 home runs, 50 RBI, stolen base; .266/.322/.406

While Steamer and ATC seem to agree on his slash, THE BAT forecasts further erosion. Using all the information provided, Ramos seems like a safe play to reach the Steamer numbers setting a safe floor. If he can increase his launch angle, even back to 2018’s 4.4 or 2017’s 5.9 would allow for a bit more power. Pay for the floor, and hope for positive movement to the mean in regards to a chance for 16-to-18 home runs as a sweetener in 2020.

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Statistical Credits:

BaseballSavant.com

Fangraphs.com

ATC courtesy of Ariel Cohen

Steamerprojections.com

THE BAT courtesy of Derek Carty