For years it seemed like the fantasy community pondered what a power breakout by Freddie Freeman would look like and then he launched 38 over 158 games last season. With the bounciness of the baseball and some health, he could have reached 40 but Freeman cratered the last 13 contests going 5-for-39 (.128) while hitting zero home runs his last 21 games of the season. A late season elbow injury hampered Freeman’s performance resulting in a surgical procedure in October of last year. His rehab carried over into camp with Freeman missing early spring training games getting the elbow ready for the season.

Noting how his elbow affected him down the stretch and in the playoffs (.200/.273/.400 slash line), Freeman still finished second in the National League in RBI (121), fourth in runs (113), sixth in home runs (38), eighth in walks (87), ninth in on-base plus slugging percentage (.938) and tenth in slugging (.549). Imagine a healthy Freeman over the last 21 games. Even with the late season swoon, Freeman owned a .295/.389/.549 slash with six stolen bases over his 692 plate appearances. His home run per fly ball percentage reached a career best (23.6 percent) and his discipline metrics remained aligned with past performance.

According to Statcast, Freeman recorded 472 batted ball events with 59 barrels (12.5 percent), an 89.7 MPH average exit velocity and 14.5-degree launch angle. Freeman ranked eighth in the majors in total barrels. His hard-hit percentage rose to 42.3 percent and his sweet spot percentage of 40.3 percent fueled his barrel rate and 30.9-line drive percentage.

In terms of expected statistics, Freeman grades well with a .292 expected batting average, .571 expected slugging and .394 expected weighted on-base average (seven points above his actual). Here’s Freeman’s zone profile courtesy of Statcast:

Part of what separates Freeman from the field early in drafts, his ability to maintain an excellent batting average with elite counting statistics. Even his pocket stolen bases tend to get overlooked with drafters chasing starting pitching and stolen bases. Over the last three years, Freeman owns a .301/.390/.540 slash with 292 runs, 90 home runs, 293 RBI and 24 stolen bases over 441 games spanning 1,929 plate appearances. Within this sample, Freeman’s .239 isolated power and 11.9 walk percentage accompany an 18.7 percent strikeout rate. For a reference point, here’s Freeman’s line drives and fly balls the last three years:

Part of his ability to produce an average at or above .300 each season lies within his approach. Freeman can hit for power to all fields and does not rely on pulling pitches for home runs. This can also be seen in his heat map and why shifts do not work on him:

As long as his health progresses in camp, Freeman ranks as the best first baseman in drafts this year at a shallow position. This resonates and gets baked into his projection sets:

  • Freddie Freeman 2020 Steamer Projection - 150 games, 662 plate appearances, 98 runs, 33 home runs, 103 RBI, eight stolen bases; .293/.385/.542
  • Freddie Freeman 2020 ATC Projection - 154 games, 664 plate appearances, 101 runs, 34 home runs, 106 RBI, six stolen bases; .297/.389/.548
  • Freddie Freeman 2020 THE BAT Projection - 154 games, 671 plate appearances, 101 runs, 32 home runs, 102 RBI, eight stolen bases; .297/.389/.535

It’s easy to see why Freddie Freeman remains a strong second round pick due to the lack of variance within his projections. As long as his elbow holds up, Freeman should be able to avoid his tragic flaw of games played being his lone weakness. Pay for the consistency and profit if he hits 35-plus home runs in 2020.

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Statistical Credits:

BaseballSavant.com

Fangraphs.com

Steamerprojections.com

ATC courtesy of Ariel Cohen

THE BAT courtesy of Derek Carty