Representing one of the three Brewers starting pitcher darts last season, those who took a chance on Brandon Woodruff reaped the rewards. Woodruff went 11-3 with 143 strikeouts against 30 walks, a 3.62 ERA, 3.36 xFIP and 1.14 WHIP over 121.2 innings spanning 22 starts. Milwaukee went 18-4 in his starts with Woodruff notching ten quality outings in them.
Woodruff recorded a strikeout percentage of 29.0 with a 6.1-percent walk rate. His batted ball profile reveals a 23.4-percent line drive rate against with a 44.6-percent ground ball rate and 32.1 fly ball percentage. He only yielded a home run per fly ball percentage of 12.0, but with a hard-hit rate of 36.2-percent.
His arsenal features four pitches with a four-seam fastball and sinker among them. Here’s a look at his pitch plot from Statcast:
According to Fangraphs, Woodruff owned an 11.6-percent swinging strike rate, a 77.3-percent contact rate, 33.9 O-Swing percentage (swings and misses outside the strike zone) and a 72.8 Z-Swing percent (swings and misses in the strike zone). Noting the chart above, here’s Woodruff’s swings and misses from last season by pitch:
Statcast provides more information per pitch along with some predictive data. Here’s each pitch with usage, expected batting average (xBA), expected slugging (xSLG), expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA), strikeout percentage (K%) and whiff percentage (Whiff%) per pitch:
? Four-seam Fastball - 38.3-percent usage, .200 xBA, .322 xSLG, .264 xwOBA, 40.8 strikeout percentage, 26.9 whiff percentage
? Sinker - 25.8-percent usage, .241 xBA, .316 xSLG, .269 xwOBA, 20.8 strikeout percentage, 18.4 whiff percentage
? Slider - 19.8-percent usage, .237 xBA, .368 xSLG, .277 xwOBA, 17.6 strikeout percentage, 29.3 whiff percentage
? Change-up - 14.3-percent usage, .304 xBA, .515 xSLG, .346 xwOBA, 17.6 strikeout percentage, 30.5 whiff percentage
It is apparent Woodruff could use some refinement on his changeup in order to unlock his arsenal. But he does depress hard hits giving up only 13 barrels from his 315 batted balls against from 2019 putting him in the top-six percent of barrel percentage (4.1-percent against). Woodruff also ranked well giving up an average exit velocity of 85.6 MPH last season with an overall .237 xBA and .367 xSLG resulting in a 30.2-percent hard hit rate allowed (top nine percent). Most encouraging, similar pitchers include Jacob deGrom and Walker Buehler . Here’s Woodruff’s zone profile from 2019:
Before attempting to project Woodruff for 2020, how many innings he pitches could determine his ceiling. In 2016, Woodruff accrued 158 innings across two levels (High-A and Double-A), then 120 innings in 2017 between Triple-A and the Brewers, 113.2 innings in 2018 in the same two levels and 121.2 innings last season. Woodruff missed time with an oblique injury in 2019 cutting his breakout season short. However, he’s only crossed 150 innings once in the last four years.
On an encouraging note, Woodruff ranked sixth among starting pitchers in 2019 with a .255 weighted on-base average the third time through the order. Yet, he seemed to struggle more the second time through when facing opponents:
? Woodruff 1st time through the order - 1.85 ERA, 2.90 xFIP, 1.07 WHIP, .261 wOBA
? Woodruff 2nd time through the order - 5.05 ERA, 4.23 xFIP, 1.44 WHIP, .315 wOBA
? Woodruff 3rd time through the order - 4.55 ERA, 2.95 xFIP, 0.85 WHIP, .255 wOBA
Woodruff does rely on his four-seam fastball to generate swinging strikes up in the zone when ahead of hitters as reflected in his chart above. If he can improve his changeup or throw more sliders, his strikeouts could increase without giving up much on his underlying statistics, especially his enticing 3.36 xFIP from 2019. Here’s his current Steamer projection:
? Brandon Woodruff 2020 Steamer Projection - 12 - 10, 183 innings, 201:63 K:BB, 4.06 ERA, 3.95 xFIP, 1.27 WHIP
Steamer only projects 28 pitchers to reach 200 strikeouts in 2020 with Woodruff among them. His current price point however will make him a tough one to profit on. He’s currently off the board around pick number 82 (82.23 in December NFBC average draft position) in a tier with Trevor Bauer , James Paxton , and José Berríos . Woodruff made great strides in 2019 with terrific numbers in an uber-hitter friendly environment. But, how many innings will he log, will Milwaukee be able to provide him with 12 wins, and how many innings per start will Woodruff average? These questions make him an upside play with viable risk.
If Woodruff can reach 170-plus innings, he owns enough potential to make his current price palatable. Track his progress this spring with the changeup and his velocities. Brandon Woodruff planted the seeds during his 2019 breakout but outside factors could cap his overall ceiling in 2020. He can overcome these, but invest with eyes wide open.
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Statistical Credits:
BaseballSavant.com
Fangraphs.com
Steamerprojections.com
Baseball-Reference.com