No pitcher under the age of 25 has more saves than Roberto Osuna . He’s notched 154 saves through five seasons in the majors. Osuna led the American League with 38 in 2019 for Houston. His ERA of 2.63 comes with a 3.60 xFIP and 0.88 WHIP. During his career, Osuna owns a WHIP below one (0.91 to be exact).

Osuna also recorded his highest swinging strike percentage (16.9 percent) his first full season with the Astros and limited contact against to 68.6 percent. With strong command metrics, Osuna yielded a 4.7 walk percentage with a 28.9 strikeout rate. He did show some cracks in the armor with his home run per fly ball average jumping to 12.3 percent last season, but with home runs up across baseball, it’s more than tolerable.

Fantasy owners will need to not Osuna’s splits from last year when they invest for 2020. In the first half, Osuna surged with a 1.95 ERA over 37 innings with a 39:6 K:BB and 0.78 WHIP. After the break, he finished with a 3.54 ERA in 28 innings with a similar 34:6 K:BB but his WHIP crept up to one.

Since Osuna’s ground ball and fly ball rates almost aligned last season, it’s more about how he will use his arsenal going forward. Knowing Houston tweaks how pitcher’s usage patterns, Osuna used his slider and change-up more in 2019 than his cutter. This represents a change in his patterns. While with Toronto, Osuna used his cutter almost 25 percent of the time, but:

Using the Statcast data, Osuna yielded only 10 barrels of his 166 batted ball events resulting in a .209 expected batting average, .354 expected slugging and .257 expected weighted on-base average. Here’s his breakdown in these categories by pitch in 2019:

  • Four-seam Fastball - 46.1 percent usage, .270 xBA, .479 xSLG, 20.9 strikeout percentage, 25.8 whiff rate
  • Slider - 19.6 percent usage, .164 xBA, .197 xSLG, 46.8 strikeout percentage, 53 whiff rate
  • Change-up - 18.5 percent usage, .113 xBA, .216 xSLG, 42.9 strikeout percentage and 48.7 whiff rate
  • Cutter - 12.9 percent usage, .146 xBA, .261 xSLG, 25.6 strikeout percentage and 26.6 whiff rate

Although Osuna’s fastball allowed the highest expected slugging and four of the eight home runs against him in 2019, it’s encouraging to see how his other pitches fared. Since trading his cutter for more sliders and change-ups, this represents an adjustment in his repertoire. This could bring about a breakout for Osuna in 2020, especially if he can locate his fastball better to prevent hard hits against. Noting the numbers above, here’s Osuna’s zone profile from last season:

Over the last three years, Osuna’s recorded 99 saves in 170 innings with 188 strikeouts versus 26 walks, a 2.81 ERA, 3.26 xFIP and 0.89 WHIP. If Osuna could boost his fantasy value, it would be through more strikeouts. If his slider and change continue to improve, it’s possible but not worth overbidding to find out.

Steamer projects Roberto Osuna for four wins, 33 saves, 65 innings, a 76:17 K:BB rate, 3.64 ERA and 1.13 WHIP. This seems off compared to his last three-year data and career WHIP below one. Osuna could repeat his American League leading save total with more respectable ratios. Yes, he’s tough to root for due to his checkered past, but Osuna continues to be one of the more stable stocks to invest in at closer. There may not be another level, but he’s one of the best bets to reach 40 saves in the season ahead.

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Statistical Credits:

BaseballSavant.com

Fangraphs.com

Steamerprojections.com