After advising to roster Anthony Rendon everywhere last season in this profile series, the perfect storm came to fruition for the talented batter. Rendon led the National League in RBI (126), tied for first in doubles (44), ranked second in on-base percentage (.412), third in average (.319), on-base plus slugging percentage (1.010) and in slugging percent (.598). On Statcast, Rendon recorded the 12th-most barrels (56) in the majors last season with the fourth-highest expected batting average (.319), eighth-best expected slugging percentage (.599) along with tying for the fifth-best expected weighted on-base average (.418).

This propelled Rendon into the Most Valuable Player conversation and set him up entering free agency. Rendon agreed to a contract with the Los Angeles Angels which could affect his numbers going forward, but he’s still a stud. However, the reduced draft day price from 2019 no longer exists. Early average draft position indicates it will take a second-round pick to roster him for 2020. Trying to decide if he’s worth it will depend on how owners craft their rosters.

In 2019, Rendon appeared in 146 games with 117 runs, 34 home runs, 126 RBI, five stolen bases and a robust .319/.412/.598 slash line. He recorded a 12.4-walk percentage with a 13.7-percent strikeout rate, .227 isolated power, 21.2-percent line drive rate, hit fly balls in 45.7-percent of his batted balls, a 15.9 home run per fly ball percentage and 39-percent hard hit rate on Fangraphs. According to Statcast, Rendon notched a 46.6-percent hard hit rate (batted balls of 95-plus MPH) along with a strong .445 expected weighted batting average on contact (xwoBACON).

Although the home run total from last season could be an outlier, Rendon owns tremendous discipline metrics. He finished with a five-percent swinging strike percentage while making contact in 88.3-percent of his plate appearances. Check out his zone profile courtesy of Statcast:

Going to Los Angeles may cause an adverse effect on his home run totals. Not because Rendon cannot generate fly balls or hard hit batted ball data, but just in park effect loss. Here’s his last three season’s batted ball data with his new home park as the backdrop:

When Los Angeles modified the ballpark, it boosted the production of left-handed hitters. However, Rendon could overcome some of the potential loss of home runs if he attempts to hit more baseballs to the opposite field. Hope resides in his heat map over the same time frame:

Before delving into Rendon’s projection, he’s registered a .309/.396/.556 slash line the last three years with 288 runs, 84 home runs, 319 RBI and 14 stolen bases in 432 games spanning 1,860 plate appearances. Within this sample, he’s been so stable with a 11.8-walk percentage, 13.6-percent strikeout rate, .247 isolated power, 21.3-line drive percentage, 45.5-fly ball percentage, 13.5-home run per fly ball percentage and 39-percent hard hit rate. Rendon’s discipline also shines through with a 5.4 swinging strike percentage and 87.7 contact percentage.

How well his counting statistics carry over may depend on the health of Mike Trout and how the Angels construct the rest of their lineup. Slated to hit third, the Angels third hitters last year accrued 80 runs with 97 RBI in 660 at-bats. Of course, the conglomerate of hitters batting third last season for Los Angeles slashed .265/.323/.464 combined. With a low on-base rate and average, some runs and RBI probably dissipated. Still, it needs to be accounted for.

Steamer projects Anthony Rendon for 150 games, 556 at-bats, 92 runs, 28 home runs, 95 RBI and a .284/.374/.506 slash. During the previous three seasons, Rendon’s averaged 143 games played with 527 at-bats. This needs to be factored in as well. Coming off of a career year and heading to a new team can be a dangerous combination for any player. Rendon will not be priced accordingly. He owns the skill set and personality to reach his projection but surpassed 150 games and 550 at-bats twice in six seasons in the majors. Invest with eyes wide open.

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Statistical Credits:

Fangraphs.com

BaseballSavant.com

Steamerprojections.com