Keston Hiura made quite a first impression on fantasy owners in 2019. His pedigree as a hitter did not disappoint. Hiura’s 19 home runs in only 84 games allowed him to finish third in team history in the category. He racked up a 15-game hit streak in July during which Hiura hit .458 (27-for-59) with five home runs and 17 RBI. After only 348 plate appearances, Hiura owns a .303/.368/.570 slash line with 51 runs, 19 homers, 49 RBI and nine stolen bases.

Beneath the surface statistics, some red flags do exist. Hiura owned the third highest batting average on balls in play (BABIP) among all players with at least 300 plate appearances. Only two of the top 30 players, including Hiura, finished with a strikeout percentage above 30 and an isolated power over .200, Brandon Lowe along with Aaron Judge .

Hiura also recorded similar discipline metrics to Javier Báez of the Cubs:

  • Hiura in 2019: 17.5 swinging strike percentage, 65.8 contact rate, 35.1 O-Swing (swings and misses outside the strike zone) percentage
  • Baez in 2019: 18.3 swinging strike percentage, 66.7 contact rate, 44.1 O-Swing percentage and .345 BABIP

Although it may seem unimportant, knowing a player like Baez with flawed discipline can produce a tolerable batting average due to quality of contact and a higher BABIP helps cushion the pending regression facing Hiura. Keep this in mind.

Last season, Hiura finished with a 30.7 strikeout percentage with a 7.2 walk rate. His 24 percent line drive percentage fueled his BABIP and he hit an equal amount of ground balls and fly balls with 38 percent of each in Milwaukee. Hiura’s 44.2 hard hit percentage stood out upon his promotion. According to Statcast, Hiura recorded 29 barrels of his 208 batted ball events for a robust 13.9 barrel percentage (ranked in the top eight percent of the league). He also racked up a 91.4 MPH average exit velocity with an average launch angle of 16 degrees.

Hiura did not rate as well with Statcast’s expected statistics. His .266 expected batting average and .530 expected slugging sit below his season results. Helping defray some of these worries, Hiura accrued a .493 expected weighted on base average on contact ranks in the top one percent and his hard hit rate of 50 percent in the top three percent of his peers. For an idea of his ability to generate hard hits and barrels, check out his zone profile in Milwaukee:

It’s intriguing to see Hiura’s minor league heat map courtesy of MLBfarm.com. It displays how he likes to hit the ball to the opposite field. This could serve him well in Miller Park:

This chart covers all his batted ball data of line drives and fly balls from 2018 and 2019 in the minors. In the next chart, here’s Hiura’s spray chart for the same time frame in the minor leagues:

In order to discern how Hiura hit the ball in the minors compared to his time in the majors, here’s his spray chart from his 84-game sample in Milwaukee:

It’s apparent Hiura owns power to all fields. He does not rely on pulling the ball for power, which only enhances his profile. Knowing Miller Park favors left-handed hitters, a batter like Hiura capable to hit the ball to the opposite field with power could propel him to a 30 home run season as soon as 2020. You heard me.

Trying to predict his batting average will not be as easy. Given Hiura’s lack of contact added to his swing and miss tendencies, his batting average in 2020 could fluctuate. Batters with this type of profile tend to be streaky. But, Hiura owns a career .317/.382/.546 slash line across 222 games in the minors. He also hit 36 home runs with 24 stolen bases (in 39 attempts) over 865 career at-bats. Focus on the on-base percentage over 38 percent and his career .928 on-base plus slugging percentage.

Steamer predicts Hiura to hit .270/.330/.495 with 78 runs, 29 home runs, 87 RBI and 13 stolen bases in 150 games spanning 560 at-bats. It does not account for Hiura potentially hitting fourth for the Brewers. Last year, the clean-up hitters on Milwaukee combined for 622 at-bats with 96 runs, 29 home runs, 92 RBI and eight stolen bases with a .246/.336/.453 slash line. If using Steamer as a guide on whether or not to buy Hiura, it seems to be a bit low on runs given his potential spot in the batting order. His home runs seem spot on as could his RBI. Over his 104 at-bats hitting cleanup in 2019, Hiura hit .292/.333/.620 with 10 home runs and 24 RBI. But there’s some concern with his 33 strikeouts against four walks batting fourth. Food for thought.

Keston Hiura will be a popular player in drafts this year. Given his power upside at second base and pocket steals (double digits well within reach). If he hits .270, he’s worth the reach. But, Hiura could struggle early then surge finishing with an average between .275-to-.285 as soon as this year. If he hits 30 home runs and drives in 90, he can return third round value. Just do not wait too long on taking him and be sure to roster a little batting average insulation just in case. But Hiura should not suffer a sophomore slump. Pedigree should win out. As for his defense, well, Hiura’s a potentially elite bat at second base.

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Statistical Credits:

Fangraphs.com

BaseballSavant.com

Steamerprojections.com

MiLB.com

MLBfarm.com