Despite only turning 23 in January, Ozzie Albies continues to emerge as a fantasy stalwart at second base. For the second straight year he hit 24 home runs, scored over 100 runs and stole at least 14 bases. Albies became the 11th player in history to record at least 40 doubles and 20 home runs in each of his first two seasons joining such luminaries as Ted Williams and Albert Pujols . At the age of 22, Albies also led the National League in hits with 189 en route to a .295/.352/.500 slash line to accompany his 102 runs, 86 RBI and 15 stolen bases.

It’s rare a player owns a background like Albies but could come at a bargain relative to average draft position (ADP) in 2020. Albies finished 2019 with a 25.5 line drive percentage, slightly improved his home run per fly ball rate and like most of the majors, saw his hard hit percentage spike. Beneath these numbers, Albies did not sacrifice plate discipline with his metric almost in direct proportion with his previous season.

According to Statcast, Albies recorded 532 batted ball events with 35 barrels (6.6 barrel percentage) and increased his exit velocity to 88.8 MPH on average. With a 15.6 degree launch angle and 36.6 fly ball percentage, Albies should not see any drop in his power. Keep in mind his age, he’s still growing as a hitter and in driving the ball. Albies also rated well in Statcast’s expected batting average, especially with a 53 point increase versus breaking pitches and a 49 point rise against offspeed pitches. His aggressive nature serves him well with Albies owning a first pitch swing percentage of 44.2 percent last season. He hunts fastballs.

Noting he’s a switch hitter, here’s his spray chart so far for his career with Atlanta as the backdrop:

What cannot be seen in this chart, Albies stays in the center of the field but pulls the ball for power at both sides of the plate. It’s easier to discern in his heatmap:

Instead of looking at Albies expected zone profiles, it may be of more interest to see which areas of the zone he attacks pitches and gets his barrels. This could be more predictive of any power growth in 2020, but this will not decide his upside in drafts. First, here’s his data, again from Statcast:

For those who play daily contests, if Albies faces a pitcher who works down in the zone, get him in the lineup. Especially in home contests. Using the teaser above, steals will be a focus for many in drafts or auctions in 2020. Albies went 15-for-19 in stolen base attempts last season and  been successful in 37 of his 45 tries (82.2 percent) with Atlanta. It’s worth noting, Albies stole 30 bases across two levels in 138 games in 2016 and 29 bases in only 98 games in 2015. There’s some latent speed here with Albies and he should spend the season hitting second behind Ronald Acuña Jr. Fantasy goodness.

Using our SGP ratings, Albies ranks fourth at second base using Steamer projections. However, if he increases his stolen bases to 20 or more, he would jump to third with a chance to exceed his ADP. This will be important. When batting second last year, Albies stole seven bases in 62 games. Extrapolating can be dangerous, but, given 150 games batting second, Albies would be projected for 17 at this pace. So a jump to 20 would not be out of the realm of possibility, especially if Albies and Acuna Jr. run some double steals during the season.

Steamer projects Albies for 597 at-bats with 93 runs, 24 home runs, 82 RBI, 14 stolen bases and a .287/.344/.489 slash. Without being privy to what type of baseball will be used, this seems like a very good baseline to work with. Albies could hit a bit higher or lower, dependent on his line drive rate and the power could reach a .500 slugging again, based on hitting environment. Due to his ability to generate counting statistics in a strong lineup, Albies will be worth the reach for 2020. Calling a 20/20 season in home runs and stolen bases for the first time which propels him into the top three at his position. Invest accordingly.

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Statistical Credits:

Fangraphs.com

BaseballSavant.com

RosterResource.com

MiLB.com