It’s like deja vu all over again, or at least it seems with a 30 year old veteran reliever enjoying a breakout in Oakland. However, this time it’s Liam Hendriks not Blake Treinen . In fact, the team announced Hendriks would be the closer going forward due to recent performance along with injury concerns for Treinen. Dating back to last September, Hendriks owns a 1.27 ERA while logging 63.2 innings spanning 54 appearances with 73 strikeouts against 20 walks (21.3 strikeouts minus walks percentage). Strictly as a reliever, not an opener as in some of these outings, Hendriks ERA dwindles to 0.85 over the last statistical year.
So far in 2019, Hendriks leads the majors in reliever ERA (0.94) while possessing the second lowest home run allowed rate among his peers. He’s won three games with five saves, all since Treinen landed on the injured list June 21st, accrued seven holds with one blown save in 50.2 innings with 63 strikeouts versus 17 walks, a 1.24 ERA and 1.03 WHIP. Hendriks will start the second half carrying over a 16.2 scoreless innings streak and he’s not allowed a run in 28 of his last 30 appearances good for a 0.76 ERA (three earned runs in 35.2 innings). He’s also the American League reliever of the month for June firing 15 innings with 22 strikeouts with a 0.60 ERA in 14 games.
How did Hendriks generate these results? Well, for starters, he’s simplified his approach and increased his fastball usage this year along with throwing more curves. According to Brooks Baseball, Hendriks recorded a 17.16 whiff percentage with his fastball in June and so far in July it sits at 25 percent. His slider produced a 27.91 whiff rate in June and in a small sample resides at 30.77 percent in July. Here’s a look at his pitch usage dating back to the start of his surge last September:
One can see the recent spike in fastballs while the slider and curve remain consistent this year, but he did not use the curve last year. When viewing his pitch plots on Statcast, it’s evident Hendriks elevates his fastball while burying his slider to induce swings and misses:
To illustrate this point, using the zone profile on Brooks Baseball, here’s Hendriks whiff percentage by zone since September first of 2018 to the end of the first half of this season:
Note the red zones above and below the middle of the strike zone. This seems to be the sweet spot for Hendriks making hitters chase with two strikes. What’s also nice to see is that he is incorporating a third pitch, the curve with success this year but not being reliant on the pitch during his breakout.
Overall, Hendriks owns some impressive numbers on Statcast. Yes, the launch angle against him did rise to 20.7 degrees this year, but he also owns a .190 expected batting average, .289 expected slugging rate and .241 expected weighted on-base average. Staying with Statcast for a moment, his numbers by pitch so far reflect closely with his expected rates above. But, his strikeout numbers do reflect the potential for growth, especially with the curve:
Hendriks fastball: 66.7 percent usage, 32 strikeouts, 26.7 strikeout percentage, 7.5 walk percentage, 27.5 whiff percentage
Hendriks slider: 22.7 percent usage, 17 strikeouts, 36.2 strikeout percentage, 4.3 walk percentage, 42.7 whiff percentage
Hendriks curve: 8.3 percent usage, 12 strikeouts, 80 strikeout percentage, zero walk percentage, 48 whiff percentage
There’s no guarantee Hendriks will increase his curve usage to generate more strikeouts. But, on Fangraphs, he’s grown his swinging strike percentage to 13.8 percent this season up 2.6 percent compared to last year. He also mitigates the increased fly ball rate growing his infield fly ball percentage to 13.8 percent along with upping his soft contact induced to 22 percent (12.7 percent last year).
Beneath his strong ratio statistics this year, Hendriks does own the potential for some regression. His FIP (2.10) and xFIP (4.08) create a sliding scale of outcomes the rest of the year. How Hendriks adjusts his arsenal could defray a collapse, so it’s going to be intriguing to see the results from his second half. Do note, his SIERA (3.37) sits in the middle of his FIP and xFIP setting a decent barometer of how his second half could finish, though not set in stone.
Using three different projection systems, here’s Hendriks rest-of-the-season numbers for digestion:
Breakouts come in different forms but Liam Hendriks should not be dismissed based on past performance. With strong indicators backing up his surge dating back to last September, Hendriks still remains below the radar in fantasy circles. With Oakland pushing towards a return to the postseason, Hendriks could be a key anchor in their bullpen as the closer. Watch how he uses his arsenal the rest of the way and if Hendriks does fire more curves with his improved fastball and steady slider, he could beat the numbers above with seven-to-ten more saves. Yes, planning on his current minuscule ratios in the second half will be a mistake, but he’s better than he’s perceived.
Not sure if this will be more than a career year for a reliever, but for now, it’s worth finding out. This year’s last two and a half months will provide Liam Hendriks a chance to prove his last statistical year’s not a fluke.
Statistical Credits:
BaseballSavant.com
BrooksBasebal.net
Fangraphs.com
ZiPS courtesy of Dan Szymborski
Steamerprojections.com
THE BAT courtesy of Derek Carty