After showing exemplary patience awaiting Craig Kimbrel to sign, time’s running out to profile him. So, without further ado, here goes. Last year, Kimbrel recorded 42 saves with five wins in 62.1 innings, with 96 strikeouts, 31 walks, a 2.74 ERA, a 3.13 FIP and a 0.99 WHIP. He’s saved 108 games over the last three years with a 2.44 ERA, 0.91 WHIP and 305 strikeouts. However, he remains unsigned due to the draft pick which would affect any team which signs him. This muddles the picture with teams trying to cobble together high leverage rather than sacrifice a future draft pick.

Within Kimbrel’s last three years, it needs to noted his outlier season of 2017 may not return for fantasy owners, but he’s still a top reliever. But, be sure to account for the trends in this time frame:

  • Walk Percentage: 13.6 (2016), 5.5 (2017), 12.6 (2018)
  • Strikeout Percentage: 37.7 (2016), 49.6 (2017), 38.9 (2018)
  • Swinging Strike Percentage: 15.1 (2016), 19.8 (2017), 17.2 (2018)

There’s nothing falling off of a cliff, but continuing to spend a pick before the 10th round seems frivolous since Kimbrel would need at least two-to-three weeks to be ready, which could be pushing it. Remember what happened when Greg Holland rushed to join the Cardinals as a late free agent signing.

As for Kimbrel, he did work well up in the strike zone along with using his curve to generate swinging strikes. Here’s a look at his pitch plot map from last year courtesy of Statcast:

In order for him to remain his recent levels of production, Kimbrel should continue to work at the top of or above the strike zone. His zone profiles illustrate this:

When Kimbrel works ahead in a count, he can generate swings at two different levels causing problems. He did throw more curves last year than the previous two. He still did well in regards to expected batting average and expected slugging, though his fastball would benefit from the one MPH he lost on average last year:

Perusing his xSTATS, Kimbrel registered a 2.77 kwFIP with 5.5 expected home runs and a .258 expected on-base average. This aligns well with his projection sets, but they get limited due to his lingering free agency.

As time goes by, it’s going to trend more towards the ATC projection. Teams like Milwaukee or Atlanta could be a landing spot for Kimbrel, but it could take until the draft choice attached lapses. This would deflate any value of where Kimbrel’s being taken in the preseason. With a stable skill set over the last three years and the closer of the defending World Champion, one would think Craig Kimbrel would not be a free agent. But as baseball continues to evolve, the gunslinging closers could be rare breeds.

Value Kimbrel correctly if gambling on him, but know there’s inherent risk on how many innings and saves he will accrue. Pay for the ATC projection and hope the innings total does not dip below it.

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Statistical Credits:

Fangraphs.com

BaseballSavant.com

xSTATS.org

ATC courtesy of Ariel Cohen

Steamerprojections.com