Not only did Miguel Andújar prove to be a bargain in fantasy last year, he put himself in the Rookie of the Year conversation. Andujar appeared in 149 games with 83 runs, 27 home runs, 92 RBI, two stolen bases and a .297/.328/.527 slash line. He tied the American League record with 47 doubles as a rookie matching Fred Lynn’s total back in 1975. Andujar’s 76 extra-base hits led all rookies last year. He also finished first among major league rookies in hits (170), doubles, RBI and multi-hit games (53) while tying for first in home runs. For good measure, Andujar finished second in runs and RBI.

Beneath Andjuar’s surface statistics, he recorded a .230 isolated power hitting line drives over 20-percent of the time, a 35.8 fly ball percentage, 15.7 home run per fly ball rate, pulled the ball 47.5-percent of his batted balls and a had a 36-percent hard hit rate. Andujar finished with a 4.1 walk percentage versus a 16 percent strikeout rate. He proved to be aggressive with a 39.4 O-Swing percentage (swings and misses outside the strike zone) but persevered with a .316 BABIP and contact percent over 81 percent.

Trying to discern how much regression will occur for Andujar will ultimately determine his fantasy value in the season ahead. Starting with Statcast, Andujar registered 480 batted ball events with 30 barrels, an 89.2 MPH average exit velocity and a 12.3 degree launch angle. Andujar did offer at the first pitch with a 33.8 swing percentage, so this aligns with his aggressive nature above.

When perusing his projections, Andujar’s power numbers and average project to migrate to the mean. It’s curious since Andujar handles the upper third of the strike zone when viewing his zone profiles on Statcast:

Pitchers who can bury pitches inside and outside will succeed versus the free swinging second year player, but he pounces on mistakes. Hitting in a robust Yankees lineup will cushion some of the pending regression. According to xSTATS, Andujar’s 24.8 expected home runs sit below his actual number but his .301/.332/.515 expected slash line provides hope for those investing in him this year.

Second year players can be difficult to gauge in fantasy, so there’s going to be many moving pieces to project him. With the expected statistics in mind, here’s his projections from three different sites:

While Andujar’s surge in the second half will be fresh in fantasy owner’s memories, please heed his increased aggressiveness and inflated BABIP in it. Since all of his projections look similar on counting statistics, it will be his average which determines the ceiling for this year. Miguel Andújar owns a talented bat, but his present price point does not account for the regression forecast above. He could be worth the reach, but time will tell.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Statistical Credits:

Fangraphs.com

BaseballSavant.com

xSTATS.org

THE BAT courtesy of Derek Carty

ATC courtesy of Ariel Cohen

ZiPS courtesy of Dan Szymborksi

MLB.com game notes