Every so often, a sleeper candidate from the season prior will exceed expectations and record a breakout. Eduardo Escobar proved to be one such player in 2017. He played in 151 games with 75 runs, 23 home runs, 84 RBI, two stolen bases and a .272/.334/.489 slash line splitting time with two teams. Escobar also registered a career best .217 isolated power and 8.2 walk percentage. Morphing into a fly ball hitter, Escobar made the most of his hard hit spike to 38.2 percent in spite of his contact percentage below 80 and a 39.2 O-Swing percentage (swings and misses at pitches outside the strike zone).

In the second half, Escobar did improve his walk rate to 9.8 percent versus a 15.7 strikeout percentage but his isolated power dipped to .188 as a result. Escobar did register almost comparable home run per fly ball percentages and hard hit rates in each half, but it remains to be seen if regression to the mean lies in the offing for him.

Over the last two years, Escobar’s played in 282 games with 137 runs, 44 home runs, 157 RBI, seven stolen bases and a .263/.323/.470 slash. His 44 percent fly ball rate seems enticing but he will need to carry over the hard hit gains displayed from last year. Late age breakouts can happen, but, so can outlier seasons. Here’s a chart showing three indicators for Escobar going forward:

He’s been able to produce more hard hits with his aggressiveness. According to xSTATS, Escobar’s expected average the last two years of .261 almost aligns with reality and his 50.9 expected home runs suggest more power could emerge. How much he can grow this in Arizona remains to be seen. As a Diamondback, Escobar hit .268/.327/.444 with eight home runs in 198 at-bats. Much more in line with his career rates than his overall numbers from last season.

On Statcast, Escobar recorded 448 batted ball events with 37 barrels, an average exit velocity of 86.5 MPH and launch angle of 18.8 degrees. Escobar’s grown his launch angle in each of the last three years. But, his average against fastballs last year of .291 sits 30 points above Statcast’s xBA while his .281 mark versus breaking balls almost matched it (xBA of .252). If regression occurs against both pitches, it could have an adverse effect on his average in 2019.

With all of this in mind, here’s Escobar’s projections from three sites:

Although Eduardo Escobar ’s not a hot target in fantasy drafts, his dual eligibility at shortstop and third base can make him alluring. Just do not pay full price for a repeat of last year. Bake in migration to the mean in batting average and on-base rates while his power could remain steady. Escobar could break even this year, but the ceiling remains lower than other players in this range.

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Statistical Credits:

Fangraphs.com

BaseballSavant.com

xSTATS.org

THE BAT courtesy of Derek Carty

ATC courtesy of Ariel Cohen

ZiPS courtesy of Dan Szymborski