Trying to discern between a hot spring, prodigious power and how the Mets will handle a prospect proves to be tricky. This makes Pete Alonso a polarizing target in upcoming drafts. Across two levels last year, he launched 36 home runs with 119 RBI across two levels and a .285/.395/.579 slash line. Alonso averaged a home run every 14.67 at-bats in Double-A in 65 games and one every 12.29 at-bats in Triple-A over a 67-game sample.
Through his first 49 at-bats this spring, Alonso leads the Mets with four home runs in 49 at-bats. He’s also hitting .347 with a 1.058 on-base plus slugging percentage in 16 games. Alonso’s walked three times against 10 strikeouts. At Double-A last year, Alonso walked 15.8 percent of the time with an 18.3 strikeout percentage. When moving to Triple-A, his strikeout rate jumped to 25.9 percent with his walks decreasing to 11 percent.
However, Alonso’s isolated power rose by over sixty points when he arrived in the Pacific Coast League. Knowing the parks lean to hitters, it can make it difficult to predict how a hitter will do in the majors without the boost. When looking at Alonso’s batted ball data, he did record a fly ball rate above 40 percent at each level and his pull percentage rose by almost seven points at Triple-A.
Courtesy of MLBfarm.com, here’s Alonso’s spray chart from last year across both levels, note his power to all fields:
Alonso pulls the ball more often for power, but he can hit them out to the opposite field as well. He also stays on the ball using the middle of the field often as illustrated in his heat map:
With the knowledge the Mets can get an extra year of team control over Alonso puts him at risk to start the year in Syracuse and Triple-A. It fiscally makes sense. However, with Todd Frazier and Jed Lowrie injured, it could clear a path to break camp with New York. Plus, Dominic Smith is also hot this spring. So, this clouds Alonso’s fantasy value and it will be dependent on how many at-bats he can accrue. Here’s his projections from three different sites:
It’s clear the projection systems agree on Alonso hitting for power. Sustaining his hot start in spring seems less likely. Especially given his spike in strikeout percentage moving from Double to Triple-A last year along with his average going down by 54 points. Sprinkle this in with Alonso fighting for at-bats all year, and it’s a risky venture to own him. However, it could be worthwhile for owners speculating on power upside later in drafts. But, the hot spring helium will push him up the boards. Plan accordingly.
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Statistical Credits:
THE ATC courtesy of Derek Carty
ATC courtesy of Ariel Cohen
ZiPS courtesy of Dan Szymborski