After a breakout in 2017, Justin Smoak took some steps back last year but still produced 25 home runs in 147 games for the Blue Jays. But, with an offense in decline until the pipeline arrives, Smoak’s counting statistics regressed with only 67 runs and 77 RBI. His slash line also went down with a .242/.350/.457 line to finish the season. Not great, but not awful given the current climate of batting averages in the major leagues.

Smoak did hit fewer line drives and fly balls last year with an increase in ground ball rate, especially in the second half. Hopefully this does carry over into this season given his calling card as a later round target for home runs at a weakened position. Perhaps Smoak became a little too pull heavy trying to hit homers and it affected his overall performance.

Over the last two years, Smoak’s appeared in 305 games with 152 runs, 63 home runs, 167 RBI and a .256/.353/.495 line. His isolated power of .238 meshes well with his 12.7 walk percentage and 23.1 strikeout rate. It will be important for him to migrate towards these numbers in order to rebound in 2019. During this time, Smoak’s hit three more home runs and driven in 12 more runs than Matt Carpenter , with a higher batting average, yet falls over 150 picks after him in NFBC 12-team drafts.

Not only could Smoak be a player to target at a discount, he also owns a solid baseline of statistics during the last two seasons. According to xSTATS, Smoak’s expected average of .258 sits slightly above his actual number as does his 67.3 expected home runs. Paying for a repeat of his 2017 season would not be advantageous, but he’s not valued as such. On Statcast, Smoak produced 352 batted ball events with an average exit velocity of 89.4 MPH and a launch angle of 14.9 degrees. Smoak’s launch angle decreased in each of the last two seasons, so a rebound here would enhance his profile. His outcomes in 2019 will be reliant on his batting average and total home runs.

Here’s a look at all of his line drives and fly balls from 2017 through last year:

Keeping in mind he’s a switch hitter, here’s Smoak’s heatmap as well, courtesy of Baseball Savant:

This translates fairly well to Smoak’s projections sets, but they represent three layers of outcomes. ZiPS slash line sits almost in direct line with his expected slash on xSTATS from last year. It seems as though the ATC projection feels the most realistic with THE BAT representing the high tide of the projections.

Given the price point on Justin Smoak , he’s a very strong corner infield candidate or power upside first baseman depending on league size. Just be sure to build some batting average insulation in case he craters to the ZiPS slash. But, Smoak could be a very cheap 25-plus home run player to provide much needed power in drafts this year.

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Statistical Credits:

Fangraphs.com

BaseballSavant.com

xSTATS.org

THE BAT courtesy of Derek Carty

ATC courtesy of Ariel Cohen

ZiPS courtesy of Dan Szymborksi

https://playnfbc.shgn.com/adp/basebal