What a difference a year can make. Austin Barnes led the list of breakout candidates at catcher last year. However, Yasmani Grandal and the Dodgers decisions about playing time were not accounted for. Barnes actually only accrued 18 fewer at-bats last year compared to 2017, but his BABIP dropped by over 40 points, he traded five percent of line drives for an eight percent growth in ground balls combining to disappoint his owners.
Barnes appeared in 100 games with 32 runs, four home runs, 14 RBI, four stolen bases and a .205/.329/.290 slash line. Not quite second catcher material in mixed leagues. But, there’s hope. He maintained discipline metrics with a minuscule 5.8 swinging strike percentage and 20.5 O-Swing (swings and misses outside the strike zone). Barnes also recorded an 83.5 contact percentage. Part of his struggles could be in approach on batted ball contact, not in aggression.
Part of Barnes success in 2017 lied in his ability to hit the ball up the middle. When hitting to center field, he finished with a .260 isolated power and 1.137 on-base plus slugging percentage with three home runs. This allowed him to turn on inside pitches for a .310 isolated power to his pull field with five home runs.
Last year, Barnes recorded a 45.5 pull percentage with a .213 isolated power, but his numbers collapsed when hitting to center field and to right field. All four of his home runs last year occurred to left field. Like many batters, when pulling the ball, they often result in ground balls. This contributed to his spike in ground balls while losing line drives.
For the visual learners, like myself, Barnes spray chart from the last two years sets a baseline. This chart features only his line drives and fly balls:
But, his heat map from this same time frame could hold the key to a Barnes rebound in 2019:
Returning to a gap-to-gap hitter with power on inside pitches could unlock his bounce back. Transitioning to xSTATS, Barnes expected average the last two years of .250 may be his baseline when setting projections for 2019. His 9.1 expected home runs over his last 418 at-bats sits below his actual number, but Dodgers Park plays well for power, not as much for average.
Barnes will need to recover in terms of average exit velocity as well. Last year, it fell to 86.3 MPH using Statcast data and his launch angle fell to 4.4 degrees. His average exit velocity fell by two MPH and his 9.6 degree launch angle from 2017 yield glimmers of hope.
If Barnes uses the middle of the field in spring training, and in the season ahead, he could be a bargain as the 24th catcher selected over the last month in NFBC draft data. Not necessarily a post-hype bargain, but Barnes owns near elite discipline metrics for a catcher and just needs a slight tweak in how he generates his batted ball data to recover his value in fantasy. His projections agree, but with varied outcomes:
Last year, Austin Barnes proved to be drafted above his value and disappointed his owners. This season, he could actually be a bargain for those looking for a second catcher with upside. It’s funny how things change in a year, but the key lies in using the middle of the field. If Barnes does, his best-case scenario could be a .260-plus average with double digit home runs and 7-to-10 stolen bases.
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Statistical Credits:
THE BAT courtesy of Derek Carty
ATC courtesy of Ariel Cohen
ZiPS courtesy of Dan Szymborski
https://playnfbc.shgn.com/adp/baseball