With the understanding catcher gets thin quickly in fantasy, old man Yadier Molina still stands out amongst his peers. Molina missed time last year with an injury which would scare any man. But when he played for the Cardinals, they went 68-53 with him in the lineup as opposed to 20-20 without him. Despite missing time, he finished tied for both RBI and stolen bases, third in runs along with fourth in home runs at his position.
Molina appeared in 123 games scoring 53 runs with 20 home runs, 74 RBI, four stolen bases and a .261/.314/.436 slash line. He recorded a .174 isolated power with a 5.8 walk percentage and 13.1 strikeout rate. His batted ball data reveals interesting data with Molina producing a 24.1-line drive percentage and his pull rate finished just below 50 percent with a spike in hard hit percentage to 44.4 percent. Yet, his discipline metrics improved in regards to his swinging strike rate and he improved his contact percentage to 84.1 percent.
Many believed Molina would not carry over the home run gains displayed in 2017, but he reached 20 home runs for the second time in his career eclipsing his 18 from the prior season in fewer games and at-bats. With this in mind, here’s his 15-game rolling chart from the last two years with his home run per fly ball percentage, pull percentage and hard hit rates included:
Molina’s pull rate and hard-hit rate seem to work together except for one area in the chart above. Over the last two years, Molina’s hit 38 home runs in 969 at-bats with a .270/.315/.440 slash line. Although it’s not sexy, his consistency along with his steady baseline of production should make him more alluring than he’s valued in fantasy. Within this time frame, Molina recorded a .169 isolated power, a 12.2 home run per fly ball percentage, a 45.9 pull percent and 39.8 hard hit rate.
Comparing these numbers to his xSTATS, Molina could be even better. His expected average the last two seasons of .285 sits above his actual number and he registered 37.5 expected home runs. In simple terms, his average could improve this year and the power surge appears to be for real.
Yet, Molina drifts to seventh in NFBC average draft position (ADP) over the last month. Perhaps it’s his age or the ballpark, but Molina deserves better. With his xSTATS in mind, here’s his projections from two different sites:
Understanding catcher runs out quickly in drafts, waiting for Molina or taking him ahead of his ADP makes sense. In fact, he’s motivated this year and should hit 20 home runs again. Hitters rarely maintain discipline when trying to increase launch angles trying to generate more power, Molina did. He’s due for positive migration to the mean in batting average as well. Let others pass on Molina and pounce if he’s sitting there near pick 140 in drafts. Veterans do not win chat rooms, but they appear on winning rosters.
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Statistical Credits:
THE BAT courtesy of Derek Carty
ATC courtesy of Ariel Cohen
https://playnfbc.shgn.com/adp/baseball