Once again, Houston seemed to work its magic after acquiring Ryan Pressly from the Twins last year. Pressly finished the year as one of seven relievers with at least 100 strikeouts. He also joined an elite group of 10 relief pitchers in the second half to record a swinging strikeout percentage of at least 15 (Pressly reached 16 percent), strikeouts minus walks percentage of at least 25 (31.6 percent) and an xFIP below three (2.34). These numbers align with Josh Hader ’s breakout in the second half of 2017 which he carried over to last year.

On the season, Pressly appeared in 77 games with two wins, two saves, 101 strikeouts against 22 walks, a 2.54 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP. After he joined the Astros, Pressly recorded an eye popping 32:3 K:BB rate in 23.1 innings with a 0.77 ERA and 0.60 WHIP. During this stretch, Pressly threw fewer fastballs while slightly increasing his slider usage and ramped up curves in his arsenal. This fueled a career high in swinging strike percentage (17.6) and cut his contact allowed to 64.1 percent last year.

Using the data on Statcast, here’s how Pressly’s pitches performed last year and key on the expected statistics:

Pressly also registered a 49.2 swing percentage with these pitches as a whole according to Statcast with a 37.2 whiff percentage and chase percentage of 34.7 percent. Here’s a look at his pitches in plot maps to illustrate how he deploys them:

Pressly buries his curve down and away to right-handed hitters while being inside on left-handed ones. Same goes for his slider to work in tandem to generate swinging strikes as evidenced in his zone profiles:

Fantasy owners will need to discern if Pressly’s a one-year wonder or if he can carry over the gains to provide ratio protection along with a boost in strikeouts on the roster. Pressly’s Statcast profile picture suggests it’s for real:

He resides in the great category in spin rates, expected on-base average, velocity and expected batting average. This usually translates to success in the next season. Pressly also did well in the data on xSTATS with a kwFIP of 2.69 and a .260 expected on-base average. When making a sliding scale on his ERA for 2019, Pressly’s kwFIP above barely eclipsed his xFIP of 2.58 on Fangraphs. Bake in his 53.6 ground ball rate on Statcast and Pressly sets up well going forward, even if his projections do not agree:

Since projections rely on the last three years of numbers, they migrate towards Pressly’s time with Minnesota, and it allows for owners to see how things could turn out if Pressly suffers from regression. However, at his present price-point along with his ratios in Houston, Pressly could be a steal. Especially if anything happens to Roberto Osuna .

Mine Ryan Pressly in drafts at his current price and use him to buffer starting pitcher streams or as a fill-in when a starter heads to a venue like Coors Field. Having a pitcher like Pressly not only helps control ratios, but also adds to the strikeout column over a full season. Personally, taking the over on strikeouts in his projections with a repeat of more than 100 given 70 innings of work this year. Will take the under on the ERA and WHIP as well, since Pressly’s underlying data suggests his arsenal’s worth the gamble. And, if Osuna struggles or incurs a suspension, Pressly could be an absolute steal.

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Statistical Credits:

Fangraphs.com

BaseballSavant.com

BrooksBaseball.net

THE BAT courtesy of Derek Carty

ATC courtesy of Ariel Cohen

ZiPS courtesy of Dan Szymborski

MLB.com