With so many teams using fluid bullpens, trying to predict how the Twins new manager, Rocco Baldelli, will deploy his pitchers in high leverage would be difficult. Especially since he worked with Tampa Bay last year. However, for those mining for every save possible, it’s tough to ignore how well Trevor May transitioned to the bullpen last season. He fits the criteria of a starting pitcher shedding a pitch in order to succeed in shorter doses.

May appeared in 24 games last year winning four of his five decisions and saving three games. He worked 25.1 innings with 36 strikeouts against five walks, a 3.20 ERA, 2.46 xFIP and 1.03 WHIP. Although May benefited from a high strand rate (84.1 percent), he did produce a strong 30.1 strikeouts minus walks percentage along with ground balls 40.7 percent of the time. This will be pivotal since May did yield a 36.1 hard hit rate, which will be less than ideal trying to close out games.

Further hope lies within his 15.4 swinging strike percentage, allowing less than 70 percent contact (67.8 percent) and generating a 29.9 O-Swing percentage (swings and misses outside the strike zone). In fact, as a reliever, May owned a 1.85 ERA and 0.86 WHIP in 24.1 innings which gets absorbed in his overall numbers. May made one start on September fourth giving up four earned runs in only an inning. If taking this start out, May’s strikeouts minus walks improves to 32.6 percent and his swinging strike percentage grows to 16.4 percent while his contact drops to 66.2 percent.

May did save three games over the course of the last two weeks of the season when Minnesota finally removed Trevor Hildenberger from the closer role. Both May and Taylor Rogers performed better than Hildenberger but were passed over initially for saves following the Fernando Rodney trade. Perhaps the last nail in the coffin for Paul Molitor.

As alluded to above, when a starting pitcher moves to the bullpen, he can hone his arsenal and utilize his best pitches. May phased out his slider as the season progressed, for good reason. First, here’s May’s pitch plots from last year courtesy of Statcast:

May not only used his slider less, but he shelved the sinker as well. A key part to May’s success lies within his ability to work in the top third of the strike zone and above it while burying his curve. These two pitches worked well together to generate swinging strikes. Here’s May’s zone profiles from last year as well and note all the red outside the strike zone:

In an effort to discern May’s xFIP from his ERA, xSTATS recorded May’s kwFIP at 2.35 which reinforces his strong performance last year. May also notched a .283 expected on-base average. His outlook for 2019 will be determined by role and mitigating hard contact. However, if he gets a chance at saves, May will be a very low priced closer at his present 232nd average draft position the last month in 12-team NFBC drafts. His range of 159-to-296 only displays the wide range of outcomes along with how fantasy owners perceive him.

Since his projections soak up his past production as a starting pitcher, using his numbers from last year with a bit of regression will be prescient. May’s xFIP (2.46) and kwFIP (2.35) really hint he could be a very good reliever for 2019. As for a projection, he could save between 15-to-25 dependent on role with a 2.75 ERA and 85 strikeouts if he reaches 65 innings. If May does shelve the slider and his curve continues to confound hitters, this will be within reach. Especially given his numbers from last year with them:

There’s no guarantee Trevor May opens the season with the closer role, but if he does, his current cost along with his indicators from last year suggest he could be a worthy late round dart throw. Get in on the ground floor.

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Statistical Credits:

Fangraphs.com

BaseballSavant.com

BrooksBaseball.net

MLB.com

https://playnfbc.shgn.com/adp/basebal