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While the arrival of Mike Moustakas did not move the fantasy needle last year, his re-signing with the team could be very intriguing for 2019. Not only will Moustakas get a full season to in Miller Park, he also turned in career highs in fly ball percentage and hard hit rates last year. If one needs illustration, Christian Yelich escaped Miami and exploded last year using Milwaukee’s home park to his advantage. This bodes well for Moustakas who hit 38 home runs in 2017 while with the Royals.
As for last year, Moustakas appeared in 152 games with 66 runs, 28 home runs, 95 RBI, four stolen bases and a .251/.315/.459 slash line. After his trade to the Brewers, Moustakas played in 54 games with 12 doubles, eight home runs and increased his slash to .256/.326/.441 in 195 at-bats. Over the last two years, Moustakas owns a .262/.315/.489 line, which represents a solid baseline to build around in fantasy at third base. He’s also hit 66 home runs with 180 RBI and a .228 isolated power.
Of more interest, Moustakas continues to generate more fly balls, 46 percent of the time, with a 43.2 pull percentage and a 36.6 hard hit rate according to Fangraphs over his last 1,128 at-bats. Taking all of his line drives and fly balls in this time frame with Miller Park as the overlay looks like this:
Not only will Moustakas benefit from hitting in Milwaukee as it rewards pull hitting left-handed batters, his power potential to center and left-center also increases. Here’s his heat map of line drives and fly balls courtesy of Baseball Savant from the last two years:
Using the data on Statcast, Moustakas recorded 476 batted ball events last year with 42 barrels (34th most in the majors) and an average exit velocity of 89.3 MPH. Also, Moustakas upped his launch angle from 14.2 degrees in 2015, to 18.3 in 2017 and to 19.6 degrees last season. Again, more fly balls, higher hard-hit rates, increased launch angle and one of the top hitting environments for left-handed batters enhance the profile for Moustakas.
Staying with Statcast, more hope lies in Moustakas rebounding against offspeed pitches. In 2017, Moustakas hit .312 in 97 plate appearances with an expected average of .297 and a .653 expected slugging percentage. In 2018, Moustakas only hit .210 against the same pitch group with an expected average of .210 and .372 expected slugging. There’s no guarantee this happens, but even if it meets in the middle, Moustakas could improve his average to the .265-to.270 range. For reference, on xSTATS, Moustakas has a .276 expected-average the last two years and an expected on-base average of .350 as well. This represents the high side of his average, but it also could be within reach.
Last, but not least, reports suggest Moustakas will take ground balls at second base and try to adjust to the position during spring training. Adding second base eligibility along with his power upside and some positive migration to the mean adds up to someone being undervalued in fantasy circles. At present, Moustakas, on average, gets selected as the 19th third base eligible player on the board at pick number 156 with a range of 125-to-181. This seems pretty for the following projection sets:
Milwaukee’s sixth hitters produced 70 runs with 69 RBI over 602 at-bats with a .216/.292/.380 slash as a group last season. Given the projections above, Moustakas will not only lengthen the team’s lineup, he should be able to accrue enough counting statistics to be fantasy relevant – especially given his present price point. His average draft position will continue to rise, but as a player in the last tier at his position along with the potential of adding second base, Moustakas should be targeted sooner.
Fantasy owners crave upside, but when it’s a veteran and not a potential rookie breakout, sometimes they go overlooked. Add Mike Moustakas to this list. However, overlooking him in 2019 drafts and auctions could be a mistake. Heed his trends of hitting more fly balls with a higher launch angle and increased hard hit rates. Miller Park, second base eligibility and the allure of 35 home runs when the category decreased last year makes Moustakas a worthy target.
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Statistical Credits:
THE BAT courtesy of Derek Carty
ATC courtesy of Ariel Cohen