After what seemed like an endless courtship, Philadelphia made their mark in free agency landing Bryce Harper . This should be a boon to his fantasy stock as well. Not only will Harper join an already strong lineup, he moves to one of the most optimal hitting environments in baseball and remains in a division where he’s comfortable. Harper appeared in 159 games last year with 103 runs, 34 home runs, 100 RBI, 13 stolen bases and a .249/.393/.496 slash line.

He struggled in the first half trying to change his launch angle for more power, which worked, but resulted in his slash line cratering to .214/.365/.468 with 23 home runs in 94 games. However, in the second half, Harper surged to a .300./434/.538 line with 20 doubles, 11 home runs and a .238 isolated power over his last 65 games. But, check out his splits versus his monster season from 2015 in which he launched 42 home runs:

Beneath the numbers past the All-Star break, Harper pulled the ball less, increased his line drive and hard-hit rates while reducing his swinging strike percentage. This will be an important trend to remember when viewing his batted ball data.

As for last season, Harper became the first player in Nationals history, and seventh player overall since 2014, with at least 100 runs, RBI and walks. He’s also the 23rd player ever to record at least 100 runs and RBI while accruing 125 walks or more. Harper’s ranks in the National League included fifth in on-base percentage (39.3 percent), tied for sixth in runs, tied for seventh in home runs, eighth in RBI, 10th in on-base plus slugging (.889) and 11th in extra-base hits (68).

Over the last three years, Harper’s played in 419 games with 283 runs, 88 home runs, 275 RBI, 38 stolen bases and a .267/.391/.507 slash line in 1,483 at-bats. Within this sample, he owns a .240 isolated power, 16.8 walk percentage and 21.2 strikeout rate. Harper generated line drives 20.3 percent of the time with a 39.3 fly ball percentage, 20.1 home run per fly ball percent, a 39 pull percentage and 37 percent hard hit rate. His discipline metrics yield an 11.4 swinging strike percentage, 74.7 percent contact and a 27 percent chase rate (swings and misses at pitches outside the strike zone).

For the visual learners, here’s all of Harper’s line drives and fly balls from the last three seasons with Philadelphia as the overlay:

From the teaser earlier, focusing on Harper’s field outs littered in left field above, even if a quarter of these translate to home runs in his new home, the benefits from opposite field could be substantial. Note Harper’s batted ball data by field direction last season:

Due to Harper’s propensity to produce fly balls to the opposite field, Citizens Bank Park should enhance this heat map, courtesy of Baseball Savant:

This map reflects his last three years of line drives and fly balls as well and should encourage Harper truthers. Last year, according to Statcast, Harper generated 390 batted ball events with 45 barrels (25th in the majors) with an average exit velocity of 90.6 MPH and a 13.9 degree launch angle. His fly ball and line drive exit velocity jumps to 96.3 MPH (tied for 21st overall) and Harper finished with a 45.1 percent hard hit rate with 176 events resulting in a 95 MPH-plus exit velocity.

Before delving into his projection sets, xSTATS suggests Harper’s expected average the last three years could be better with a .272 rate compared to his actual .267 in this time frame. While his power aligns with 86 expected home runs, better days could be ahead. Since Harper’s career slash of .279/.388/.512 sits above his last three years of production, the projections will not reflect it. But, here are his projections after the Phillies signing to set a baseline:

Injuries and erratic averages hamper his projections, but it allows for profit. Harper’s .330 average in 2015 seems like the outlier, and it’s crazy to think it will happen again. However, Harper’s better than a .260 hitter. The usually reserved ZiPS system seems the most bullish on Harper and its projection set represents the high side of 2019 outcomes. Could Harper hit 38-to-40 home runs, absolutely, especially if he reaps the rewards of the left field fences in his new home.

No matter how one feels about Bryce Harper , his signing with Philadelphia could unlock his opposite field power and benefit his counting statistics when accounting for the support within the lineup. This move will push Harper back into the first round in 15-team drafts and to the early second in 12-team formats. It will be very interesting to see how his average draft position shifts in March. Suffice it to say, Harper will not be going anywhere via free agency, but his fantasy stock rose with this move. Pay for the projections above, but profit could ensue if he reaches the ZiPS numbers.

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Statistical Credits:

Fangraphs.com

BaseballSavant.com

xSTATS.org

THE BAT courtesy of Derek Carty

ATC courtesy of Ariel Cohen

Steamerprojections.com

ZiPS courtesy of Dan Szymborski

MLB.com