After launching 18 home runs in his first 50 games in the majors, it’s apparent Rhys Hoskins can be an impact player in fantasy. His sophomore season yielded 89 runs, 34 home runs, 96 RBI, five stolen bases and a .246/.354/.496 slash line over 558 at-bats in 153 games. Thinking he could extrapolate his monstrous debut during a full season would be unrealistic, but, Hoskins did exhibit signs of growth last season.
Hoskins ranked first in the National League in pitches per plate appearance displaying his patience. He also tied for seventh in home runs, seventh in extra-base hits (72) and walks (87) while driving in the 10th most runs. During last season, Hoskins emerged as one of five batters with at least 70 extra-base hits and 85 walks.
In regards to his power, Hoskins joined Aaron Judge as the only major league players with at least 50 home runs and 120 walks in their first 200 games. Hoskins has hit 51 home runs with 122 walks over his first 200 major league contests and since his debut on August 10th, 2017, Hoskins 52 home runs rank fourth in the majors behind only Giancarlo Stanton , Khris Davis and J.D. Martin ez. Here’s a look at Hoskins spray chart in this time frame courtesy of Baseball Savant:
Transitioning to his batted ball data, Hoskins racked up a .251 isolated power with a 13.2 walk percentage and 22.7 strikeout rate last year. His 51.7 fly ball percentage accompanied a 16 percent home run per fly ball rate and 34.5 hard hit percentage. In the second half, Hoskins surged with 20 home runs in only 249 at-bats (one every 12.45) in 67 contests. His fly ball percentage jumped to 54.2 percent along with his home run per fly ball percentage to 19.2 percent and a 37 percent hard hit rate. This, along with his 7.9 swinging strike percentage and improved chase rate provide hope for power growth in 2019.
According to Statcast data, Hoskins produced 413 batted ball events with 47 barrels (20th in the majors) and a launch angle of 22.4 degrees on average last year. Amidst the fly ball revolution, Hoskins excels in this regard. Here’s his launch angle chart since his debut:
With a rebound in his average against right-handed pitching, Hoskins could grow his average towards his expected average (xSTATS) through his first 728 at-bats of .253 in the year ahead. His power gets insulated by his home park advantage. Entering his Age-26 season, Hoskins could be primed to reach 40 home runs if everything comes together but his projections forecast at the least, the ability to replicate last season:
With more pitchers, and the ones within his division trying to elevate fastballs, Hoskins could succeed given his launch angles and ability to handle pitches up in the strike zone. Here’s his zone profile from Brooks Baseball with isolated power from the last two years:
Part of his overall value will be based on where Hoskins hits in the batting order. Presently, he’s projected to hit cleanup for the Phillies. With an improved lineup and more on-base hitters layered in the lineup, his counting statistics could improve. Last year, the Phillies fourth hitters accrued 573 at-bats with 79 runs and only 85 RBI. However, during the 152 at-bats Hoskins appeared as the cleanup hitter, he scored 27 runs with 11 home runs, 31 RBI, a .296 average and a 1.021 on-base plus slugging percentage.
It’s easy to make the case for Rhys Hoskins to improve in 2019 and make a run towards a 40-home run season. With health and the lineup improvements, he could reach 90-plus runs with 100 or more RBI. Just understand his average will hover in the .250’s due to his heavy fly ball approach which depresses his BABIP like Edwin Encarnación in his prime. However, Hoskins will also add first base eligibility after the start of the season in 20 game minimum leagues which enhances his appeal.
Due to his high floor and potential ceiling, Rhys Hoskins makes for a worthy target in 2019 drafts. Invest with confidence.
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Statistical Credits:
THE BAT courtesy of Derek Carty
ATC courtesy of Ariel Cohen
ZiPS courtesy of Dan Szymborski